Posted on 01/03/2016 8:53:05 PM PST by justlittleoleme
Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.
That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump's strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus attendees and primary voters simply ignore poll numbers that suggest Trump would be a risky bet in November?
SNIP
But Quinnipiac University's Dec. 16-20 survey showed Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.
Trump trailed Clinton by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, in the mid-December Fox News ballot test, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 45 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump trailing Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 44 percent and Rubio trailed Clinton by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent.
But not every survey showed Trump trailing Clinton so dramatically in hypothetical match ups. For example, a Dec. 17-21 CNN/ORC survey showed the two candidates separated by only two points (Clinton 49 percent, Trump 47 percent). Of course, Cruz held a 2-point lead over Clinton and Rubio a 3-point lead in that survey, seemingly confirming that Trump is a weaker nominee against Clinton than at least two other Republican hopefuls.
But even if additional surveys between now and the Iowa caucuses show Trump's relative weakness in the general election, it is not yet clear that GOP voters - and Trump voters - will care. Opinion about the importance of "electability" as an issue for voters has been divided over the years.
(Excerpt) Read more at 3.blogs.rollcall.com ...
My husband predicts that the Dems will lose some supporters once they get into crunching the numbers for paying 2015 taxes. When they realize how Obamacare has so negatively impacted their income their pea brains might start putting 2 and 2 together. Just a thought...
editor-surveyor posted this same theory to me a few weeks back, probably in a cloud of pakalolo smoke. He said the evidence was the massive amount of buses parked at the rallies. (Has anyone seen massive amounts of buses parked at Trump rallies? No.)
I like Cruz but he has no chance.
Trump who brings in new voters stands a chance because he’s willing to fight.
We’ll find out soon enough if he can defeat Hillary’s claim to the historic “first woman President” mantle.
The odds are steep not only because of changed demographics, but vote fraud, dirty Democratic tricks and GOP establishment sabotage.
if Trump wins, it would be a miracle. The GOP establishment does not like/want him and it will do all in its power to get Hillary elected.
That’s why I wrote she is for a lot of reasons, still the prohibitive favorite going into November.
The first issue is nominating someone who can win.
The second is hiring a bare knuckles, kick as SOB With brass balls to crush the Washington Cartel and fumigate the White House and Congress. If Ted could do that, he'd get the first spot on my Trump/Cruz ticket.
Cruz is none of the above.
Polls 11 months before the election are meaningless.
At this point in 1980, Ronald Reagan was 30 points behind Jimmy Carter. He won 45 states on Election Day.
Yes; that thought gives me nightmares, and has for a long time. There's nothing "they" won't to do achieve their desired results. The only hope we have is that Trump is a fighter and he won't roll over as others have in the past. There were several, and obvious, cases of Dem cheating in the last two elections but the GOP candidate had nothing to say about it.
There were videos of James O'Keefe of Project Veritas undercover, in think in PA. The Dem he was spying on, the son of a PA politician, was giving him clear information on how cheating is done. Still, no GOP-er responded. I don't think Trump will be that complacent.
No Steuie it will sink your client Granny.
Same criteria that apply to Trump also apply to Cruz.
But he isn’t pulling in the kind of voters a GOP candidate must attract to win the White House.
His conservatism limits his appeal to swing demographics.
Which is why the GOP establishment wants someone more electable.
Ironically enough, its why they can’t see that Trump is expanding the GOP in a way where its other candidates have fallen short.
In a word, the GOP establishment’s irrational hatred of Trump is blinding it to the fact he’s not a movement conservative, considering its unwilling to go to the mat and fight for conservative principles.
If electability is the only criterion that matters as opposed to principle, it should be lining up behind Trump.
True.
But then Carter was our worst President, a quality brought to bear by his infamous “malaise” speech and his humiliating handling of the Iran hostage crisis.
About the only good news 11 months out is the fact Obama’s personal approval ratings are underwater and most Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Hillary’s fate will largely depend on whether she wants to run for Obama’s third term or is going to promise a change of direction.
I don't believe that for a minute. First, there are more women than men in general. Second, women tend to vote with their feeeeeelings than with their heads. Third, many of them want/need Uncle Sugar to support them and their god-forsaken families of multiple urchins by multiple, absent, fathers.
But he isn’t pulling in the kind of voters a GOP candidate must attract to win the White House.
His conservatism limits his appeal to swing demographics.
on Freerepublic..... Cruz is too conservative to get elected.... got it..
OK, I’m going to try this again.
No, I’m not a troll, a Christian hater, a Satanist, a “liberal”, or any of the other names I usually get called when I ask this question. I’ve been here since May 1998 and I’ve never been banned.
Please tell me the names of states adding up to 63 electoral votes that Romney lost that you feel confident Cruz will win if he is the nominee.
To be fair, I will tell you that Trump, if he is the nominee, will win NY, MA, NJ, CT, and possibly PA, which will make a victory for HRC impossible.
I think Ted Cruz is a fine man, very smart, devoted to the constitution and an excellent debater. He belongs on the Supreme Court.
But I’m voting for Trump because Cruz is unelectable, and nobody here has yet even tried to show me I’m wrong.
What most of these "analyses" miss is that Trump's "unfavorables" are not the traditional "unfavorables" that apply to other pols---cause Trump isn't a traditional pol. Trump's unfavorables are a character or pop icon's unfavorables---an "Undertaker" from WWF, a J. R. Ewing from Dallas, a Richard Petty. Some people "hate" him in a role, but I contend many of those would vote for him.
What does being "on Freerepublic" have to do with it?
Ted Cruz is not running for President of Free Republic, an office I'm sure he could win easily.
He's running for President of a country where Barack "Obama", or whatever his name really is, got 69 million and 66 million votes in two Presidential elections.
The winner in 2016 is going to have to get seven to ten million of those voters to vote for him. Are you telling me that Ted Cruz can do that?
Don’t get me wrong, I like him and Cruz has shown us why he deserves to be President.
He has yet to show us how he will be President and yes, he’s an effective advocate for conservatism.
If the general electorate was GOP primary voters, he’d already be President.
Cruz has to figure out a way to sell conservatism to people who aren’t conservatives, hence my comment.
Its true whether you acknowledge it or not, not every one in America is charmed by Cruz.
He has his work cut out for him and this conservative wishes him well.
a long time friend, solid Christian, Republican, told me last night he would probably prefer hillary to Trump.
I was stunned
But if you listen to any statement that Trump makes..... He will bring up the polls and how he is winning because the polls say he is.
I’m reminded of the old adage, live by the polls, die by the polls.
Trump is leading not because of them but despite them.
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