Posted on 01/01/2016 6:48:49 PM PST by dontreadthis
A Trump Conservative/Populist "Reagan Democrat" Candidacy Could Win In The Electoral College
Here is an analysis of the Electoral College victory possibilities for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.
With a truly conservative/populist candidate such as Trump, there appears the ability to add to core base of Electoral College support which the Romney election of 2012 represents (Map 2).
Should the current economic, military (possible terrorist) and political situation continue as it is now President Obama, as did President Carter in 1980, will own the prevailing climate in November 2016 as will "Obama's third term" Clinton.The Republican base will be determined to vote in strength, whilst all those areas of support that Obama put together in 2008 with such enthusiasm-youth, anti-war proponents, Blacks, may not be so enthused next time.
Thus, as map 3 shows, if Michigan which has traditionally been Democratic is added to the 2012 base, plus marginal Florida and Ohio, then Trump has every chance to win. The GOP establishment has no credible argument for a middle of the road candidate as there are clear indications that the base would sit on their hands come November 2016, and in that case, there is a very strong possibility of significant down ticket losses.
Thus the GOP has everything to gain with a Trump candidacy, especially with a Republican congress, as he would ensure that genuinely conservative "Reagan Democrat†policies would be implemented without a veto and the country would be back on its traditional center-right path.
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
PIAPS is not a carpetbagger They were Yankees that moved South after the Civil War
PIAPS is just a liar from the Mid-West who lived in Arkansas for a while.
Carpetbaggers actually would be offended by her.
See definition 2: A political candidate who runs for office in a place where he or she has lived only for a short time.
I know. I just do not want to give any dignity at all. Carpetbaggers were at least ambitious, she just feels entitled
I doubt Trump would want to serve two terms...one and then back to his business and family.
He should make an agreement with Cruz. Be my VP and I will guarantee you the presidency because I will resign before the end of my term.
Make the agreement public!
people would be voting for two presidents at the same time.
Trump and Cruz
I feel that Trump is Cruz’s only ticket to the WH.
I want Cruz to serve as president and then get a seat on the Supreme Court.... nirvana :-)
Brains/Bucks 2016
Really—he’s running for a third term? :-)
Trump will win against Hillary, Bill and Obama.
After Hillary’s defeat, get set for payback as the Clintons reveal all of Obama’s secrets to make sure his legacy is tarnished.
California could be a toss up. IMO, California could go red if Trump does some good campaigning there.
This is exactly how I see it.
The “carpetbagger” accusation refers to New York, not Arkansas.
From your keyboard to God’s inbox. Trump doesn’t need CA this cycle. I figure it would go red in 2020 after he’s built the wall and the economy is showing real growth.
15% would be a seismic shift in American electoral politics.
You are correct, NY would seal the deal; however, I don’t just want Trump to win. I want Congress to get a wake up call that tells them that we aren’t putting up with their crap any longer. A Trump landslide of epic proportions would make that abundantly clear.
“Cruz being an active leader (with the bully gavel) in the Senate to insure a conservative senate. He who holds the gavel controls the debate! Cruz could ensure the conservative view is always in the forefront of all senate debate.”
Would you mind going into more detail about how you see this working? Many see the VP as mostly a tie breaker.
The notion that Cruz as VP would have more senatorial influence than he does now is pure fantasy.
Also, there is no way Trump would only serve one term. Cruz is still young enough there's no need to rush, however. He'll be in his prime 8 years from now.
Perfect strategy.
“Trump’s trump card is that alone amongst the other GOP candidates he has significant appeal to “blue collar Democrats†and “Perot voters†as well as bringing to the polls the Evangelicals who stayed home in 2012. His message of “jobs for Americans†has potential game changing ramifications in the Electoral college. (Map 3)”
If you get moderate Dems and Conservatives in your camp, you win. Period. Illegals, minorities and hard core libs cannot change it.
I agree!!
And, so far, Trump appears to be doing that. This could be an historic landslide.
I have often wondered just how much authority the VP could actually have in the Senate if they bothered to rule from the Chair. I know the are non voting except in a tie, but could they control the debate from the Chair?
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