Posted on 12/15/2015 12:18:50 PM PST by GonzoII
So dominant is Hillary Clinton's polling in the presidential primaries, notes the press critic Howard Kurtz, that the media have essentially stopped paying attention to the Democratic race at all. The logic, for a media organization, is simple: Why lavish limited resources on a fait accompli? The Democrats, after all, have spoken. They are fully ready for (or perhaps fully resigned to) Hillary.
That's certainly not the case on the Republican side, where, we are told (ad nauseam), that the race is still "wide open." With "no clear frontrunner" on the GOP side, the contrast between the Republican and Democratic contests could not be clearer. It will be Hillary representing the Dems, and it could be just about anybody (well, maybe not anybody) who ends up leading the ticket for the GOP.
Yet are the races really all that different?
According to the two latest national polls, conducted as the furor over Trump's call for a temporary moratorium on Muslim migration reached a fever pitch, the real estate magnate leads the Republican field by either 23 or 27 points. Tuesday's Washington Post/ABC News poll has Trump with more than double the support of the second place finisher, Ted Cruz. Indeed, Trump's lead over his primary opponents is larger than both Ronald Reagan's was in the 1980 race, and George H. W Bush's was in the 1988 contest.
The latest national polls of the Democrats, meanwhile, show Secretary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by a mere 20 or 19 points. And her support appears to be plateauing, while Trump's numbers are surging. All of which is to say, on a national level, Trump is clearly in a stronger position than Clinton is.
Looking at the crucial first two states, Clinton does appear stronger in Iowa than Trump. According to the latest polling averages, Trump is up by only one point in Iowa, whereas Clinton leads Sanders by more than 15. But Trump is in much better shape in New Hampshire. He's up by 16 points in the Granite State, while Clinton is clinging to a tenuous five point lead.
So, does this mean that Trump is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination? Hardly. He has a fight on his hands (good thing he's in such great shape) â but then again, by the same standard, Secretary Clinton does too. The media should behave accordingly.
They won’t. That’s why these polls that are trying to gauge a six month maverick politician with Hillary even before he has the nomination are silly.
You think most people won’t be able to discern Trump’s talents are better than Hillary’s. I know you get this, but boy some folks in the parts sure don’t.
I THINK WE’re about to witness the total breakup of the democratic hold on us. I pray that they keep Hillary in the race, but I feel that Obama and company are going to get her mixed up into the mire of her email scandal.
At what point will it be too late for another democrat to run if she’s indicted and declared unfit to run? All Obama would have to do is pardon her.
“Looking at the crucial first two states, Clinton does appear stronger in Iowa than Trump. According to the latest polling averages, Trump is up by only one point in Iowa, whereas Clinton leads Sanders by more than 15. But Trump is in much better shape in New Hampshire. He’s up by 16 points in the Granite State, while Clinton is clinging to a tenuous five point lead.”
Iowa is full of fools?
You have to look at the poll internals. How many women, democRATS, Indie’s etc. See how the questions were phrased.
Poll results are employed in accordance with the unspoken motives that triggered the exercise in the first place:
Namely, to confer moral authority for their usage as a legitimate tool of cultural intimidation against those whom the results have shown to be one’s adversaries.
You can’t be serious. Our side will come out in droves to vote against her. Trump will beat her silly. He will mock the daylights out of her and the ads will show Americans the true source of our troubles.
Trump will be on stage with the Benghazi families, the Clinton women, etc. etc.
But more important, she’s a phony. A lousy campaigner, and has no experience at doing anything successful.
I am just going off what many have posted here the past several days. Are you saying Freepers lied?
Americans are not stupid, but the media had Reagan penned as a dumb actor, mean spirited, unaccomplished etc.
In the debates, the people were amazed to find that he wasn’t like that at all.
Same with Trump. I find myself really listening to him when he speaks.
I hope tonight that he refrains from being the bully.
I can just hear “Deutscheland Uber Alles” when you post that!
Now that’s funny, right there.
Frankly, I wish there weren’t at least some likelihood of that.
No, I get the hatred towards Trump. It’s really funny. I have a brother that won’t even discuss the man with me. I think there is definitely a Trump disorder here. I think people on the Bret Bair panel are suffering from it.
Each Friday they do the Casino and Trump barely garners a $5 bet from Kraut or George Will or the idiot with the glasses and goatee.
I think eventually Trump will win them over. The man is patient with his detractors. He’s enjoying this, and I enjoy watching him.
I just think there is more hatred for Hillary than there is for Trump,
But here’s the deal, I think many many democrats will vote for Trump.
“I cannot comprehend why voters would want a mentally confused, inept, pathological liar such as Hillary for POTUS.”
That indeed is a mystery! And the “world peace” types should consider that Hillary might just get the US in a war to “prove” that a woman President can make the decisions and be just as tough as any man!
“So dominant is Hillary Clinton’s polling in the presidential primaries, notes the press critic Howard Kurtz, that the media have essentially stopped paying attention to the Democratic race at all.”
When Hillary speaks her numbers drop and after Trump opens up with both barrels, all she have is the war on women tome.
The lead is bigger, but the percentage of republican voters is smaller, and to say it’s larger than Hillary’s was is grasping at straws, since she lost.
Trump is ahead, but he’s still a long way from 50%. When Christie, Bush, Fiorina, Paul and the rest drop out, are their supporters going to jump to Trump? Seriously? Almost all of those supporters will go to Rubio, some to Cruz. I also believe Carson will drop out, but his support will be evenly divided. The only way Trump wins is if it is a 3-way race all the way to the end, and Rubio and Cruz don’t make a deal
Let's assume Trump ends up with something on the order of 35-40% of the delegates heading into the convention. Not enough to win on the 1st ballot. Let's further assume Cruz ends up with 20-30% of the delegates.
Questions: Does Cruz put his support behind Trump, or does Cruz accept the GOPe candidates' support (assuming they give it to him) to put himself at the top of the ticket? What if the cost of the latter requires Cruz to pick a GOPe selected candidate for the VP slot?
In checking before I presumed to correct, I saw things that didn’t resonate with my understanding. My own reaction to the phrase puts me in mind of my grandmother yelling “Shoo!” while urging chickens in the direction she wanted them to go.
Crewz Helmut is in charge!
That’s right! I was trying to think when I’ve heard the term before.
YMMV?
Yes, that’s true! now I get the term. just not the ‘in’ part
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