“I have my doubts. An Iranian retreat would be a watershed event, because it would mean that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had done a 180 on a fundamental principle of his regime: doing whatever it takes to save Bashar al-Assad’s tyrannical rule in Syria.”
They probably thought that since Obama has now committed the US to take on ISIS, why should he let any of his troops get killed.
Are there any Iranians left to retreat ?
bookmark
If true, why not pull back and reduce Iranian casualties if the Russians are doing the job of saving Assad for you? As totalitarian as the regime in Iran is, they are still sensitive to public opinion and if a handful of senior generals/officers have been killed or wounded, you can bet that many hundreds more of regular troops have also been killed.
Clearing the bomb test area?
Lots of possibilities here:
- They are pulling back because Assad is no longer at imminent risk.
- They are hurting domestically (politically) because of the casualties (including several high ranking in the ruling elite). Budgets could be strained as well.
- They are shifting priority elsewhere (Iraq, Yemen, etc.), for a Spring/Summer offensive, or to defend against a developing threat.
- They are rotating their regulars back home, and sending in foreign replacements (Shi’ite mercenaries).
- There has been a secret deal to dial back intensity. The Saudis have also cut back funding to rebel groups in the NW of Syria, which have started cutting deals with the Assad regime (e.g. the recent handover of Homs).
- Some combination of the above.
“To be sure, the fight hasn’t been a great success thus far — the Russians’ bloody bombing spree proves that.”
That’s a stupid deduction.
Depends on the source.
Obie and company???...Yeah ...right...
Israel...then I'd believe it.
Maybe they think Russians are gonna nuke ISIS...
If so, why? Russian’s going to boom the place? Where are our boots?
On the other hand Iran has suffered tthe loss of numerous command level generals ... also heard that Iranian troops have had their rear ends waxed and have taken major casualties.
Some sort of deal is on the cards - Iran and the Saudis have just announced a cease-fire agreement for the Yemen.
If you'd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
Related threads
Iran is going to have to worry about defending Iran, very soon I believe. The geo-political situation in the Gulf is heating up. The two houses of Islam are waging a proxy war in Yemen, but it going to “enGulf” the entire region, shorty.