Lots of possibilities here:
- They are pulling back because Assad is no longer at imminent risk.
- They are hurting domestically (politically) because of the casualties (including several high ranking in the ruling elite). Budgets could be strained as well.
- They are shifting priority elsewhere (Iraq, Yemen, etc.), for a Spring/Summer offensive, or to defend against a developing threat.
- They are rotating their regulars back home, and sending in foreign replacements (Shi’ite mercenaries).
- There has been a secret deal to dial back intensity. The Saudis have also cut back funding to rebel groups in the NW of Syria, which have started cutting deals with the Assad regime (e.g. the recent handover of Homs).
- Some combination of the above.
I’ve wondered about political unrest just because so many Iranians hate the regime. Nothing so much directly about the war, but that too many loyalists are away, inviting unrest.
pretty good list!
I was wondering about a secret deal, wondering what Kerry and Obama, the EU or ?? might have promised Iran to get them to cut back
Pretty sure Israel would prefer to see Hezbollah tied down along with the SAA in northwestern Syria than in Lebanon closer to their border