Posted on 12/14/2015 7:26:10 AM PST by Isara
The Ted Cruz surge has officially arrived. Predictably, the same political class that previously didn’t give him any shot to win the nomination is now saying he’s “peaking too soon” or the “flavor of the month.”
Here are five reasons why they’re wrong (as they almost always are).
Accounting for the upcoming holidays when most people tune out politics, there are about 40 days until Iowans vote in their first-in-the-nation caucuses. Cruz is now the leader in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Iowa. By that point in the 2008 cycle, eventual winner Mike Huckabee was beginning his surge and had vaulted to second in the RCP average. The previous two Iowa winners, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996, were the established frontrunners from the outset. The only time someone pulled a rabbit out of their hat to win Iowa at the final gun was Rick Santorum four years ago. Iowa is an organization-driven state, and it takes months of retail campaigning to build that organization. That’s why Iowa does not “break late” and Cruz is not “peaking too soon.” In fact, he’s peaking at the perfect time. What you’re seeing is an Iowa harvest coming forth following a year’s worth of tilling the soil, planting seeds, and tending the fields. Cruz and his Iowa team simply out-worked everyone else.
The two big endorsements in Iowa are Congressman Steve King and conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats. Cruz reeled in both of those big fish, and he’s the first to ever do so. On a national level you’re seeing unprecedented coalescing as well. Cruz is the first three-time winner of the Values Voters Summit straw poll, and won the Freedom Works straw poll as well. No other candidate has been able to simultaneously appeal to social and limited government conservatives. National conservative leaders like Richard Viguerie and Dr. James Dobson endorsed Cruz, and reportedly there are even more to come. The National Organization for Marriage, which didn’t endorse in both 2008 and 2012, has endorsed Cruz, as has Gun Owners of America. This is the most united we’ve seen the conservative movement since the Reagan Revolution.
By coalescing the conservative movement, there is no means by which another conservative candidate could surge. Where would his or her support come from? For example, four years ago Santorum nabbed late endorsements by Vander Plaats and Dobson to kick-start his campaign. But as we’ve noted this time, those two heavy-hitters are already with Cruz. The resources and organization other conservative movement candidates in the race (Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul) would need to launch themselves are simply not available. Those candidates are now officially dead in the water. At this point, it’s just a matter of how long and for whatever reason they want to continue to stay in the race. That certainly doesn’t mean Cruz has the nomination sown up, but it does mean that if a movement conservative wins the nomination, it’s going to be Cruz.
Cruz became the first candidate to build a ground game that covers every county in all four of the early states back in October. While most candidates are still trying to catch up to him in Iowa, Cruz will be doing a national swing through Super Tuesday states next week—which he originally started organizing back in August. As a result, Cruz has better organization on the ground in those states than most of the GOP field has on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Cruz ended the third quarter reporting period with the most cash on hand of any GOP presidential candidate. Even better, Cruz has received donations from a whopping 362,000 individuals, whose average donation in the third quarter was only $66. Translation: He has a donor base that is a renewable resource for the rest of this campaign and has not maxed out.
Steve Deace has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.
Well, I got news for ya.
Have you watched the latest drivel on NBC about a contested, brokered convention?
They figured that the only way for it to occur is to have three candidates, each holding about a third of the votes.
Well, well, well...
And the funniest thing was they actually admitted on the tube that this was a once in a lifetime, most newsworthy event a reporter can have.
So you can BET YOUR BOTTOM DOLLAR that they are going to do everything in their power to convince you there are three solid candidates before the convention.
It’s all geared that way. It’s “news”, and it’s big bucks.
It’s disgusting. I am totally fed up with the whole carnival tent sale process.
His donors average about $70/each. This isn't a few big money types - the money is coming from a broad base.
Ok, so where is he wrong in his five points, then? I'm quite willing to accept that he is, but simply attacking the messenger doesn't refute any of them.
I’ve noticed there are always a few pro trump trolls/ unhinged comments on these Ted Cruz threads. They say this stuff straight about a man who’s praises they would have been singing a few months ago as the consistent conservative champion. Cruz didn’t change. Trump mania did.
“Both of them I like and respect,†said Mr. Cruz, according to an audio recording of his comments provided by one attendee. “I don’t believe either one of them is going to be our president.â€
But he added, “You look at Paris, you look at San Bernardino, it’s given a seriousness to this race, that people are looking for: Who is prepared to be a commander in chief? Who understands the threats we face?â€
He went on: “Who am I comfortable having their finger on the button? Now that’s a question of strength, but it’s also a question of judgment. And I think that is a question that is a challenging question for both of them.â€
***********************************************************
You don’t think that “Who am I comfortable having their finger on the button” isn’t a hit? Do you recognize what he is referring to?
I was just listening to Rush. Rush, who brags about his memory, claimed he couldn’t remember what Cruz said in the above audio, it was so insignificant.
As I keep repeating, the moderators in Tuesday’s debates will not think it is insignificant.
But it can’t be because they really like Cruz..
Do you really thing it was a complement? It was a hit that became public. It has to dealt with.
I’ve sent a small amount of money to Cruz does tha mean he owes me. Like if he becomes President will I get $1000 in Cruzmoney?
Million-Dollar Donors in the 2016 Presidential Race
A rough total gives me about 30 mil and that's just from millionaires. Other special interests. In anticipation of his need for cash, Cruz advocated taking limits off campaign contributions, for big donors.
You’re being ridiculous, you know what big money does. Nearly all billionaires and many millionaires are pro-amnesty which is why our government never fixes the problem. Big oil, Wall Street, others are running our government.
It’s a conundrum for candidates who want to be competitive but it’s not for the people. We need big money out of campaigns.
No, I do not consider that an attack of any substance. Trump needs diapers if he has to throw dirt over nothing.
“I do not consider that an attack of any substance.”
Then why did Cruz say it, and later deny saying it? The denial was a lie.
Not a complement at all but not a public “hit” or “attack” piece either. Cruz was just sharing his opinion with HIS donors, supposedly in PRIVATE, but one of them obviously burned him by going straight to the LSM.
Does that include Trump and his massive fortune?
BINGO! Post of the day!
We wouldn’t need Trump and his massive fortune if big money was out of campaigns. He wouldn’t be able to use more of his cash than anyone else.
I think he denied it was an attack.
Listen, Trump can sure dish it out but he is a spoiled brat when it comes to taking it.
Republicans that play this little boy game of mud throwing are doing nothing but showing what children they are and the rest of the country is watching.
Really now, what does it prove?
“I think he denied it was an attack.”
I don’t know myself; Rush said he denied it. Jamie Dupre stated on Hannity last week that he was asked about it by a Heritage Foundation person, Cruz evaded the question, so he was asked about it again. Dupre said he issued a “non-denial denial” which is lawyer talk on Cruz’s part. Now we know he did say it.
Cruz mentioned Carson along with Trump; I figure that since Carson is no longer a player, he just threw Carson’s name in the mix to make it look like he was just not singling out Trump.
“Republicans that play this little boy game of mud throwing are doing nothing but showing what children they are and the rest of the country is watching.
Really now, what does it prove?”
It does get tedious.
“Not a complement at all but not a public “hit†or “attack†piece either.”
That was Cruz’s intent. It will be brought up tomorrow night.
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