Posted on 12/14/2015 7:26:10 AM PST by Isara
The Ted Cruz surge has officially arrived. Predictably, the same political class that previously didn’t give him any shot to win the nomination is now saying he’s “peaking too soon” or the “flavor of the month.”
Here are five reasons why they’re wrong (as they almost always are).
Accounting for the upcoming holidays when most people tune out politics, there are about 40 days until Iowans vote in their first-in-the-nation caucuses. Cruz is now the leader in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Iowa. By that point in the 2008 cycle, eventual winner Mike Huckabee was beginning his surge and had vaulted to second in the RCP average. The previous two Iowa winners, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996, were the established frontrunners from the outset. The only time someone pulled a rabbit out of their hat to win Iowa at the final gun was Rick Santorum four years ago. Iowa is an organization-driven state, and it takes months of retail campaigning to build that organization. That’s why Iowa does not “break late” and Cruz is not “peaking too soon.” In fact, he’s peaking at the perfect time. What you’re seeing is an Iowa harvest coming forth following a year’s worth of tilling the soil, planting seeds, and tending the fields. Cruz and his Iowa team simply out-worked everyone else.
The two big endorsements in Iowa are Congressman Steve King and conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats. Cruz reeled in both of those big fish, and he’s the first to ever do so. On a national level you’re seeing unprecedented coalescing as well. Cruz is the first three-time winner of the Values Voters Summit straw poll, and won the Freedom Works straw poll as well. No other candidate has been able to simultaneously appeal to social and limited government conservatives. National conservative leaders like Richard Viguerie and Dr. James Dobson endorsed Cruz, and reportedly there are even more to come. The National Organization for Marriage, which didn’t endorse in both 2008 and 2012, has endorsed Cruz, as has Gun Owners of America. This is the most united we’ve seen the conservative movement since the Reagan Revolution.
By coalescing the conservative movement, there is no means by which another conservative candidate could surge. Where would his or her support come from? For example, four years ago Santorum nabbed late endorsements by Vander Plaats and Dobson to kick-start his campaign. But as we’ve noted this time, those two heavy-hitters are already with Cruz. The resources and organization other conservative movement candidates in the race (Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul) would need to launch themselves are simply not available. Those candidates are now officially dead in the water. At this point, it’s just a matter of how long and for whatever reason they want to continue to stay in the race. That certainly doesn’t mean Cruz has the nomination sown up, but it does mean that if a movement conservative wins the nomination, it’s going to be Cruz.
Cruz became the first candidate to build a ground game that covers every county in all four of the early states back in October. While most candidates are still trying to catch up to him in Iowa, Cruz will be doing a national swing through Super Tuesday states next week—which he originally started organizing back in August. As a result, Cruz has better organization on the ground in those states than most of the GOP field has on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Cruz ended the third quarter reporting period with the most cash on hand of any GOP presidential candidate. Even better, Cruz has received donations from a whopping 362,000 individuals, whose average donation in the third quarter was only $66. Translation: He has a donor base that is a renewable resource for the rest of this campaign and has not maxed out.
Steve Deace has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.
YES!!!!!
Cruz is a gloBULList free trader.
Go Ted!!!!
Deace has been nailing it this entire primary. I hope Mark Levin endorses Cruz soon as he said before we need to coalesce around a conservative early to prevent the GOPe from splitting up the vote. Mark its time...get behind CRUZ ASAP!
Des Moines Register poll from Dec 03, 2011:
Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 18%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 8%
Perry 6%
Santorum 6%
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/GingrichSurgesinNewIowaPresidentialPoll/2011/12/03/id/419863/
On January 3rd, Santorum won the caucus...
“Steve Deace has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.”
Are we supposed to be impressed? Who is Steve Deace?
I am gonna start doing an IBTT - in before the trumpees, take off on IBTZ, lol. I already missed it on this thread.
Good news about peak time, I wondered if Cruz was ticking up too soon.
He is the #1 conservative radio talk host in Iowa. Much better to have is endorsement than not.
Logic. Nice to see. Stark contrast against the raft of emotionalism.
Logic. Nice to see. Stark contrast against the raft of emotionalism.
Logic. Nice to see. Stark contrast against the raft of emotionalism.
One man isn’t going to fix things anyways, but at least you’d have someone you can work with.
Wrong on so many levels. Trump has coalesced conservatives far beyond what Cruz is capable of.
And though the article is right about Cruz having cash, that’s not a good thing with a candidate. It means donors, it means obligations.
But the media on conservative sites and mainstream will keep pushing Cruz either because they’re purists who don’t really know Cruz or to topple Trump. I think the end result if they succeed will be an establishment candidate.
Boom boom boom boom boom boom
Sorry for the duplicates. Bad internet connection.
I don’t think they get up until noon. So we have a few hours yet lol
Morning Joe: Lifelong Republicans say they will vote for Hillary over Cruz or Trump
Posted by The Right Scoop on Dec 14, 2015 at 9:50 AM in Politics |
By The Right Scoop
Morning Joe tells his panel that many lifelong Republicans hate Ted Cruz and Donald Trump so much that they would vote for Hillary Clinton if either one of them wins the Republican nomination:
Are we supposed to be impressed? Who is Steve Deace?
******************
Well he’s covering his tracks so to speak.
Deace........
snip
Free advice to Cruz - you’re going to beat Trump in Iowa anyway, so there’s no need to go
to war with him. If he decides to declare war, let it be one-sided. He’s not taking any of
your support away from you at this point, and his is already locked in. So there’s almost
nothing to gain or lose. Meanwhile, you’re going to consolidate a YUGE base of conservatives
behind you with King and Vander Plaats helping. Let Trump have his 20-30%. You’re going to
finish higher than that without helping the establishment by letting you two go to war, which
is just what they want. You can beat him without muddying the waters, and if you beat him in
Iowa you’re probably going to be the nominee.
*****
But there is a strategy for you, Donald, that could work.
Realize that gambling you’re going to bring 15-20,000 new people to the polls for a 2-3 hour
caucus process in the dead of winter in Iowa is fools’ gold. You’ve already maxed out in Iowa,
which is why you’ve had virtually the same numbers in the RCP polling average of Iowa since
September 3rd.
So dump your Iowa stock now, like you have under-performing investments your whole career. Dis the
state as a bunch of hayseeds that never gets it right (which isn’t true as I’ve documented but
many believe this anyway). Play to the media’s (including “conservative” media) hatred of
Iowa and East Coast bias. Tell Iowa to take a flying leap and then go all-in over in New Hampshire
now. If you win there you’ll still run strong in South Carolina and be a threat to win the nomination.
http://stevedeace.com/news/down-the-stretch-deace-advises-cruz-and-trump/#
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