Posted on 12/12/2015 4:56:15 PM PST by Amntn
According to the latest Des Moines Register Poll, (full pdf below) of 400 Republican caucus goers, candidate Ted Cruz has surged into the lead with 31% support - a gain of 21 points since DMR's previous polling:
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
http://i68.tinypic.com/2py82t2.jpg
Backward. Reverse. Opposite. Surely you can cotton on to my meaning.
You and your friends. There are several of you who do nothing but trash Trump.
Cruz has been setup by this liberal rag for a fall.
And make no mistake, Cruz’s numbers will go down.
Just like Walker, Carson and Trump.
What will the story be when Cruz’s numbers begin to fall in Iowa?
He has been setup and you don’t even realize it.
So you do not agree that the top five things, including, best on the economy, best on illegal immigration, best on knowing how how to get things done, best on reducing the deficit, and best on Islamic terrorism are not also the most important categories?
I have no idea what you are talking about.
I posted a link to the PDF of the internals for this poll.
I re-posted the graphic that Trump polls best in 5 top categories and therefore said the internals do not reflect the outcome.
I also posted some people with TDS letting them know their constant snark, half truths, and lies about Trump, as well as their insults to Trump supporters cost their candidate my donations.
So what specifically do I have backwards?
This is FR, you will find that half the posters are cheerleaders for one candidate or the other. It is the nature of FR. I have found IMHO the opposite that you seem to think, but you don't see me whining about it. You have been here long enough to see sometimes people get upset about the same thing you are upset about. Sometimes there is even some some that made anti-freeper sites. I think Libertypost.org was one that was famous for a while.
I have took breaks from FR a couple of times. It helps, I promise.
How many semester hours of statistics are necessary to meet your criteria?
CNN?
Thanks but a break isn’t necessary.
I just get tired of posting facts refuting lies and half truths and I get tired of the insults.
I was pointing out that their behavior is not helping their candidate.
Incidentally, I am not the only one who quit donating to Ted because of the type of people here who support him.
That's what you do with liberal trash. Trump is a snake oil salesman. He has nothing to offer. Even if he wins we get snake oil. No border fence. No fair trade agreement with China. No kicking out the illegals. Mexico's not going to build the wall. The courts are not going to allow 11 million illegals to be kicked out without hearings. The US economy will not accept a no trade with China or other third world countries. This is all pie in the sky. In 5 years if Trump wins I guarantee we will be having the same (if not more) arguments.
Ok, keep playing the victim. That plays real well here.
bookmarking for comments after Cruz wins Iowa
Come on keep up here. That was a response to a poster who said CNN had Trump up by 13. In the past any poll that has Trump down is met by Trumpkins who say CNN, FOX, Zogby etc. "It's figures. This is a MSM poll."
Exactly. I see this kind of objection all the time on FR - that a smaller sample size automatically means "the poll is junk" - and all it says is that there are a lot of FReepers who don't understand how statistics work.
Let's run through a really quick tutorial on this. Sample size in a poll affects the poll's precision much more than its accuracy. In other words, sample size affects how narrowly the probably true results will cluster around the "centerpoint" given by the poll, not the actual location of that centerpoint.
Let's say that we have two polls (just throwing some completely invented numbers out here), one with a sample size of 400 (MoE of ±6%) and one with 800 sample size (MoE of ±3%. Both put Trump at 35% in a state. So the one poll has Trump at 35±6% (meaning he could be anywhere from 29% - 41%), the other has him at 35±3% (could be 32% - 38%). In BOTH of these polls, the most probable and likely the true number is, in fact, 35%. The MoE determines not the veracity of the number for his support, but how relatively wide or narrow the bell curve for the poll is, and hence, how narrow the range is for results that fall within the 95% confidence interval (which is what almost all polls use).
Hence, for the small sample size poll, Trump would MOST LIKELY BE at 35%, but the relative likelihood (remember, drops off significantly, per the shape of the bell curve, as you reach the outer edges of that confidence interval) of a different number is greater. Now, the larger sample size poll gives the same number (35%), hence we can surmise that 35% would, in fact, be an accurate number. But its precision (how closely its bell curve focuses on the "true" number) is better.
You just proved my point.
Thanks.
It helps to grow a thick skin.
Besides, half the folks here are a buncha faggots anywise.
I’ll leave it to you and them to decide who is or isn’t.
So it is playing the victim when I inform posters that they are not helping their candidate due to their behavior?
Who knew?
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