Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
Can’t we hold our fire and enjoy the GOPe spliting their vote between Rubio, Jeb, Kasich and Christie?
C’mon relax we go 60days+ to enjoy before anything gets too serious.
It is up to the Republican county chair to make sure his/her county election is honest. If you have concern about that, get in touch with your county chairman and see what he/she is doing to be sure their county election is honest.
As far as money is concerned in general, Cruz does have the money to go the distance already. He doesn't have the personal wealth of Trump but that much money - billions - won't be needed for this election. Trump would never spend his entire wealth to be president and it's not needed.
It's possible, but Cruz demeanor, logic, knowlege, and speaking style can win these people over.
The media demonization could backfire when people hear him speak for himself.
No, we don’t. They are desperate now. Trust me-—and it may not be very effective-—but the GOPe are now pulling out all stops to prop up Cruz until they can get Rubio wedged in there. Again, I’m not saying all, or even most of Cruz’s support is coming from the GOPe, but SOME of it definitely is. I repeat, you don’t get three puff piece stories on Cruz “surging” in NRO and National Journal in a single week without the GOPe pushing this. I have yet to see a SINGLE story in either about “Trump surging.”
“It is strange that it took so long for the evangelical Iowans to realize Cruz would be the one most likely to represent their values...”
If you checked the historical record of voting in Iowa, you would find many of those folks do not finally settle on a candidate until during the month of January.
Good pattern of growth for Cruz. Trend is consistently upward.
I started it? Really? I posted a view of your candidate you’re not comfortable with and I get hammered from all sides.
People on this site need to be able to defend their candidate, not attack the messenger.
Electability is always, ALWAYS a myth.
Trade principles for electability and you will lose. every time. If not at the polls, then in the resulting actions of the candidate once in office - a Pyrrhic victory, as they say.
Popularity is a distraction, and conservatives should be ashamed of themselves if that is their guiding motive.
yea it just seems weird to me this year— with all the coverage and the 20 million people watching the debates, that they should have figured out before now— That Cruz was their guy... I mean the people on this site had that figured out a long time ago...
CNN poll out today shows Trump at 33% in Iowa and Cruz at 20%. Not good news for Cruzers.
I wonder if they are still playing this Radio Ad against Cruz in Iowa?
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But Trump has no reasonable hope of being President.
How could he ever overcome 63% of votes being for his opponent?
That’s a mountain Sir Edmund Hillary could never have climbed.
Rut rho! :-)
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You are quoting from another liar’s article and attributing his absurd beliefs to Cruz.
You sir are without question a deliberate prevaricator.
You have no honor whatsoever.
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Good!
If CNN says it we all know it is a lie of astronomical magnitude.
Well actually their polling criteria is likely Iowa caucus goers. A larger polling group than Monmouth also so its looking a lot like trump.
But we all pretty much already figured this out. Cruz and Rubio are duking it out for a distant 2nd and then with Carson still in it none of them are going to catch Trump. There is no place to pick up the votes from. Rubio and Carson are not getting out of the race until probably SC so its going to block Cruz’s ability to rise.
Trump is going to be a great President.
Cruz will win Iowa going away. Trump or Rubio will win NH. And then the race will be on.
Misread you, friend. My apologies.
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>> “Well actually their polling criteria is likely Iowa caucus goers.” <<
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In their very broad opinion.
Their “criteria” is whatever it takes to get the outcome they desire to portray.
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