Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
I think Cruz is going to be the nominee.
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Me too.
I think so too.
We’ll see.
I like Cruz, but I am not confident in any poll at this time.
Sigh. First the Fiorina ‘surge.’ Then the Carxon ‘surge.’ Now the Cruz ‘surge.” Any surge the GOPe can get to derail Trump.
Come on, Cruz isn’t GOPe. They don’t want him.
x2 from his organization and strategy he’s running the smartest campaign I’ve seen in many,many years.
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U R Right!
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There is no question Cruz is the smarter and more consistent conservative.
I’d be more happy with him as President.
But I give the edge to Trump on electability. Maybe also because Trump will shake the establishment tree even more violently.
Either one would be a strong President.
I’ve thought that since 2013 - I have some doubts now - about over taking Trump - but I also think those who have already declared Trump the winner period are out to lunch too.
One swallow does not make a spring. I think the Donald has a better chance of defeating Hillary, but Cruz will certainly have my vote if it comes to that.
I think the nominee is going to be either Cruz or Rubio.
This is all about Rubio. Trump is his only serious threat.
barf-o-rama
The GOPe can’t be too happy about the Cruz surge. They are in quite a fix with the Trump/Cruz 1-2 punch and Jebbie hovering in mid-single digits.
I’m hoping...
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