Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
If you believe any professional politician, you have much to learn.
The wall will take 5 years. Until then Trump would have to use the Romney model which four years ago he described as mean.
This poll is weighted at 50% evangelical.
Does that sound representative to you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CwVrfydjOI&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHlGlNwsQb0
Walker! OMG! I’m speechless.
Hang on while I bang the water out of my ear.... did you say, WALKER? And, you meant it?
Sheesh. No wonder the Party is circling the drain. The GOPEEE Establishment has to have some slow learners around to make their work so. damn. easy.
I think the Cruz surge is merely due to actual conservatives coalescing around a single true conservative candidate. Trump has soaked all the left-leaning populists in the party, so he does not have much room for growth.
Trump building projects have ALWAYS finished AHEAD of schedule and UNDER budget. Stark example is the skating rink in NY city. It was under construction for several years, but not completed. Trump took over, redesigned the rink, tore up the old construction, and finished a new working skating rink in a few months.
History is prologue.
I think it’s meaningless in the big picture. But Trump hates to lose, and has a good team in Iowa that needs testing.
His crowds there are huge, but it’s a caucus which mean people need to show up and caucus. Very very different kind of campaign.
You have to admire Trump’s energy, regardless of his age. I don’t know how he does it.
I truly hope that whatever the outcome, that he not get personal with Cruz, rather that he continue to direct his sites at Hillary and start acting like the guy who is in the lead not fighting for the lead.
Private vs government. Apples and oranges.
“The funniest thing will be watching the Bush supporters running towards Trump to keep out Cruz.”
Yes. Cruz is not well liked by anyone at this point, but together with Trump it would be a formidable duo.
I thought he lost NH
A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent.
October 26, 2015
Learn the facts. In both cases, government hired contractors to do the actual work. Trump was the final contractor.
Actually, lib, it was Bush 41 whose lieutenants talked to TRUMP about the possibility of consideration for sharing the ticket.
Not the other way around as you put it, as if to suggest Trump asked for the job. The tomato truck didn’t just drop Trump off at the White House curb.
Trump was eyed a long time ago as a man on the smart rocket, as this particular little revelation proves.
I agree. Cruz on the top of ticket loses to Hillary in a landslide.
Trump/Cruz ticket has a much better chance to defeat Hillary.
Federal government?
Or locals he could grease?
I would agree that the race should come down to these two, except how does Rubio remain viable with poor early results? Ih he comes in 3rd or lower in Iowa, 4th or lower in NH, and is then lackluster in SC? Hanging on until Florida made some kind of sense 4 years ago, but it's later this year, after the so-called "SEC Primary".
I just don't see how Rubio can expect to win starting so far behind.
President Cruz should hire Trump to build ice skating rinks across our southern border so influxing Mexicans slip on the ice and crack their sombreros.
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