Posted on 11/27/2015 4:21:50 AM PST by GonzoII
By: Greg Richter
Donald Trump has a commanding 22-point lead in the latest Economist/YouGov Republican presidential poll, while Ben Carson has slipped to fourth place amid the recent focus on terrorism.
Here are the results of people identifying themselves as likely Republican primary voters:
Donald Trump: 36 percent
Marco Rubio: 14 percent
Ted Cruz: 12 percent
Ben Carson: 10 percent
Jeb Bush: 6 percent
Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, John Kasich: 4 percent
Chris Christie: 3 percent
Mike Huckabee: 2 percent
Lindsey Graham: 1 percent
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
It's interesting to consider what the polls will look like if everyone other than Trump, Rubio, and Cruz were to drop out.
Nearly 100% of Jeb, Carly, Kasich, Christie and Graham supporters would go to Rubio, giving Rubio an additional 17 points if you trust this poll. I'm not sure where Paul's 4% would go, maybe half would go to Cruz, the rest who knows. I would guess that about half of Ben Carson's supporters will go for GOPe, the other half will be evenly split between Trump (those who want a non-politician) and Cruz (Evangelicals). A good portion of Huckabee and Santorum's vote will go to Cruz (even though Huckabee and Santorum are liberal on non-social issues), the rest will go to Rubio.
So my guess as to what the polls would look like if Carson, Bush and GOPe also-rans dropped out is (very roughly, due to not really knowing where Carson, Paul, and Huckabee voters will go) this:
Trump: 40%, Rubio: 35%, Cruz: 25%
I bet you haven't been watching the MSM at all. Trump has been getting bashed for more than 6 months. Even casually turning on Fox News or CNN, and you will hear an attack on Trump.
Go Trump!!!
Immigration and TPA are two pretty good places where we can accuse Cruz of being loyal to his donors, even if he panders further right than Rubio or Jeb Bush are willing to do. The fact Cruz has been telling media outlets that mass legalization of illegals isn't off the table, while railing about amnesty to conservative audiences, should take the shine off his armor to normal thinking folks.
There's some truth in what you say, Cruz is on the wrong side with TPP/TPA and he has said some contradictory things abaout immigration. However, Donald Trump has hardly been a model of consistency in his stated political beliefs either. The bottom line is that there aren't any perfect candidates, but I put both Cruz and Trump light years ahead of Jeb and Rubio.
I want to have a Trump II as VP.
I don’t want a politician, even a good one, and I’ll accept your endorsement that Abbot is a good one.
But, look at how easily Trump, a non-politician from the private sector, runs circles around the professionals.
I’ve long said, those in private industry are far, far superior to anything government employees can bring to the table.
That table is in the process of being flipped over.
When it’s upside down our government will begin to move towards being more representative and responsive to those of us who pay their salaries.
We need as many years as we can get with people who aren’t owned by anyone.
In Trumps words, unless he wins, this is nothing more than a waste of time for everyone, including trump himself.
Thank God America is awakening, I think he’s going to pull this off.
I suspect this is sarcasm, since Carson came out in 4th place in this poll, and it appears that his votes are dividing between Cruz, Rubio and Trump.
Strange thing about the Rubio bump. I remember reading an article that interviewed some retard Carson supporter who was now supporting Rubio.
The truth is Rubio comes across to the general public as likable, Cruz not so much. Youth, looks, voice, demeanor all matter more than substance, to the mass voter base.
I think the "conservative" establishment, and many conservatives in general, are actually pretty out of touch with ordinary Americans. The proof is that Ben Carson's "honesty" and "trust" scores in multiple polls I've seen have dropped something like 10 to 20 or 30 points, depending on the poll, when before they had always been extremely high, which was literally Carson's only selling point. If it's true that Trump's comments had "no effect," Carson should be losing on foreign policy, not also losing on virtue scores.
The claim that Trump's comments were only around "for a day" before the Paris terror attacks aren't actually true either. Trump had made the statements several times, first in interviews, a second one being with Bill O'Reilly, and later in a speech the media called a "90 minute tirade" about Ben Carson, even though Trump only beat the crap out of him for 9 minutes.
They were reported on Breitbart if memory serves, and were widely discussed in the media and even mentioned on FR.
Clearly, people heard it, and Carson was already getting beatup in the media over dishonesty to begin with. More than likely, the fact that Trump was willing to maul an opponent, combined with the terror attack, only strengthened Trump's status.
300% over Cruz.
Cruzers shouldn't panic, we want Cruz for 16 years in the White House: Trump/Cruz 2016!
It is laughable.
In time, these very same people will make another assertion.
The claim will be made that our enemies new found fear of us, the true unemployment rate plummeting, our trade deficits disappearing, and the American peoples renewed optimism, will be explained with ‘it’s just part of the normal ebb and flow of things, the fact that Trump is president is simply his good fortune.’
Mark my words, history shows that the claim will happen, total certainty.
They’ve been successful with that meme in the past.
Trump isn’t going to let them get away with it this time.
Thank God America is awakening, Trump is circumstantial proof.
So the question remains, why are they still in the race?"
The answer is another question: Why should they drop out?
What else have Goober Graham, George Pataki, Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore got to do? OK, Goober theoretically has stuff to do in the Senate...but aren't they on Holiday Break until like next May?
Being an official "presidential candidate" is a pretty good gig if you're shameless, love attention and don't have much to do or anywhere to be. You fly around the country on other peoples' money, give a few speeches, do some interviews. People listen to what you say. They act like you're someone important. You get on TV a lot.
Then despite your abject failure, you'll always carry that moniker "former presidential candidate." Of course they'll never mention that you got 500 votes in the Iowa caucuses, .4% in New Hampshire, then dropped out right after finishing right behind Harold Stassen in South Carolina. You'll just be "former presidential candidate Jim Gilmore."
So long as the money holds out...what's not to like?
Hank
Early this year I changed my tagline to;
“Is Ted Cruz himself as mean spirited as the ‘click it or ticket’ Cruz contingent here on FR?”
That was in response to the ruthless, brutal, verbal attacks on even the most mild question about Cruz.
By way of example; to a question I asked the response was ( almost a direct quote) “Get the hell out of the way, we don’t have time to waste on the likes of you”
That question about whether Cruz himself is as mean spirited was never answered in the months it was up, and I solicited for an answer often.
Would you want to give it a shot?
That's the same thing I think about Trump, every time he opens his mouth.
Well, I would agree, his comments about Carson were not exactly the high water mark of the campaign, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t effective. And you’re right, I was being unnecessarily snotty with you with my other comment. I just finished a heated exchange with another poster and I guess some of that carried over to you. My apologies.
Lol!!
That could be close. It might be about 33% each. The big question will be, though, not pre-primaries polling, but rather people actually going to vote in the Republican primaries. There, I suspect, Trump will not do as well.
LOL!
Nice
“Trump: 40%, Rubio: 35%, Cruz: 25% “
Sounds pretty good. I wish more here understood the value of the dwarfs staying in the race until the bitter end.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.