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Why Ted Cruz Probably Won’t Win
National Review ^ | 11/25/2015 | HENRY OLSEN

Posted on 11/25/2015 12:15:34 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Ted Cruz is now the flavor of the week. He has risen dramatically in polls, both nationally and in key states like Iowa, and now many pundits are saying he's the man to watch. Maybe so, but that vastly underestimates the challenge the very conservative senator from Texas still faces.

Cruz's rise is almost entirely due to his finally getting strong levels of support among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party. If they were the party, it would be looking pretty good for Ted. But they are not, and therein lies Cruz's challenge. Call it the Cruz Ted bears.

The data are clear that Cruz is consolidating the party's Tea Party and very conservative factions. Three national polls in November break Republicans into three ideological categories, dividing conservatives into "very" and "somewhat" conservatives. They all show Cruz's support comes primarily from that first group. Quinnipiac has him with 27 percent among very conservatives, 7 percent among somewhat conservatives, and 6 percent among moderates. McClatchy/Marist has him at 21-8-5 among those three groups, and Public Policy Polling (PPP) has him at 29-10-1. The ideological right likes him a lot, while the center and the left of the Party are at best lukewarm towards him.

The same trends are evident if you break voters into Tea Party supporters and non-supporters. Quinnipiac has Cruz getting 30 percent of Tea Partiers compared with only 13 percent overall. PPP has him getting 26 percent of Tea Partiers but only 10 percent of those who say they are not.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS:
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To: dp0622

Good question. If it is from NR, it is pro Jeb/uniparty. They have a foreign editor...


81 posted on 11/25/2015 7:40:29 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: SaraJohnson

They have a foreign editor. The Good Ole as USA as Apple Pie NR has a foreign editor?

makes sense.

If someone new posted their first vanity explaining why neither Trump nor Cruz could possibly win, they would be gone quite soon, I think.

I wish NR would go away. Very disappointed in them, in ANYBODY pre Trump/Cruz whom I thought were conservative outlets.


82 posted on 11/25/2015 8:30:57 PM PST by dp0622 (..)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Well, we have a small number of people on our side who are like the Left now. They think being the angry young man is an answer to a problem. They don’t read; they just explode. They praise foreign dictators and take anti-American positions because they’re mad that Obama won the election twice. This they aver means America is no longer worth our love and respect. And this, too, is the stuff the Left used to do when they lost, praising Mao, Ho, the Sandinistas and all the way back to the Soviet Union. So now it’s a little shocking that some “conservatives” will praise Putin and his policies despite his record and the cruelty of what he’s doing.


83 posted on 11/25/2015 11:08:11 PM PST by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution. Go Cruz.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

I believe you when you express your love for Christ.

But you are pretty over-the-top in your obsession with The Donald.


84 posted on 11/26/2015 5:10:39 AM PST by Theo (May Christ be exalted above all.)
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To: Theo

Supporting a candidate is not obsession. I can say the same for every person who supports someone else in this race. Please keep things in proper perspective and let us all examine ourselves before we look at someone else.

I will keep supporting Trump. Go Trump!


85 posted on 11/26/2015 6:40:12 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: elhombrelibre

I will keep supporting Trump. Go Trump!


86 posted on 11/26/2015 6:41:25 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: Vision Thing

He is my pick also......


87 posted on 12/01/2015 5:09:41 PM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a bigot...because I don't want Muslims coming to America.....)
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