Posted on 11/14/2015 10:56:53 PM PST by rmlew
The murder of some 127 innocents in Paris by a jihadi gang on Friday has again shocked the French and led to another round of solidarity, soul searching, and anger. In the end, however, Islamist violence against Westerners boils down to two questions: How much will this latest atrocity turn public opinion? And how much will it further spur the Establishment to deny reality?
As these questions suggest, the people and the professionals are moving in opposite directions, the former to the right, the latter to the left. In the end, this clash much reduces the impact of such events on policy.
Public opinion moves against Islamists specifically and Islam more generally when the number of deaths are large enough. America's three thousand dead on 9/11 stands out as by far the largest mortality but many other countries have had their equivalent – the Bali bombings for Australia, the railroad bombing for Spain, the Beslan school massacre for Russia, the transportation bombings for Britain.
Sheer numbers are not the only consideration. Other factors can multiply the impact of an assault, making it almost the political equivalent of mass carnage: (1) The renown of those attacked, such as Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands and the Charlie Hebdo office in France. (2) The professional status of the victim, such as soldiers or police. (3) High-profile circumstances, such as the Boston Marathon bombing.
In addition to the over 27,000 attacks globally connected to Islam since 9/11, or more than 5 per day (as counted by TheReligionOfPeace.com), a huge increase in illegal immigration from the Middle East recently exacerbated feelings of vulnerability and fear. It's a one-way street, with not a single soul ever heard to announce, "I used to worry about Islamism but I don't any more."
These cases make more Westerners worried about Islam and related topics from the building of minarets to female infibulation. Overall, a relentless march rightwards is underway. Surveys of European attitudes show 60 to 70 percent of voters expressing these concerns. Populist individuals like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and parties like the Sweden Democrats are surging in the polls.
But when it comes to the Establishment – politicians, the police, the press, and the professors – the unrelenting violence has a contrary effect. Those charged with interpreting the attacks live in a bubble of public denial (what they say privately is another matter) in which they feel compelled to pretend that Islam has no role in the violence, out of concern that to recognize it would cause even more problems.
These 4-P professionals bald-facedly feign belief in a mysterious "violent extremist" virus that seems to afflict only Muslims, prompting them to engage in random acts of barbaric violence. Of the many preposterous statements by politicians, my all-time favorite is what Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont, said about the Charlie Hebdo jihadis: "They're about as Muslim as I am."
This defiance of common sense has survived each atrocity and I predict that it will also outlast the Paris massacre. Only a truly massive loss of life, perhaps in the hundreds of thousands, will force the professionals to back off their deeply ingrained pattern of denying an Islamic component in the spate of attacks.
That pattern has the very consequential effect of shutting out the fears of ordinary voters, whose views thereby have negligible impact on policy. Worries about Shari'a, rape gangs, exotic diseases, and bloodbaths are dismissed with charges of "racism" and "Islamophobia," as though name-calling addresses these real issues.
More surprising yet, the professionals respond to the public's move to the right by themselves moving to the left, encouraging more immigration from the Middle East, instituting more "hate speech" codes to suppress criticism of Islam, and providing more patronage to Islamists. This pattern affects not just Establishment figures of the Left but more strikingly also of the Right (such as Angela Merkel of Germany); only Eastern European leaders such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán permit themselves to speak honestly about the real problems.
 Viktor Orbán's Hungary may not last long in the EU. Or maybe he is the group's future leader? |
Eventually, to be sure, voters' views will make themselves heard, but decades later and more weakly than democratically should have been the case.
Placing the murderous rampage in Paris into this context: it will likely move public sentiments substantially in one direction and Establishment policies in quite the opposite way, therefore ultimately having only a limited impact.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2015 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
bkmk
Not at all surprising considering the respective demographic trends as voting blocs.
The left will downplay this as much as possible. The liberals will say “if you fight back, it will show they are willing!” “Go out and do your holiday shopping!” (notice it wasn’t “Christmas shopping”)
Europe’s and America’s junta of whores are fully committed to submerging their own people. It’ll be submission or war.
The response to Charlie Hedbo could have been better. I see morons on the west doing nothing.
Liberals never see the arrogance of claiming that they understand Islam better than Muslims.
Good article for sure, but I don’t agree with the premise that how our leaders react is of singular importance.
What matters now is not how politicians see the attacks, but how ordinary people view them.
The attack in Paris happened Friday, and on Saturday my 17 year old daughter got a call from one of her friends asking her out to a movie. She said “no, I’m afraid to go to a movie, because these people are here in our country now”.
She has never been particularly curious about politics. She’s in the know because she has news alerts texted to her on her cell phone. She is fearful, which I believe to be a perfectly rational, adult response. How the politicians react to events like this become irrelevant when 17 year olds are making up their own minds, and we live in a relatively immigrant-free town. Having announced to us just last week she liked Ben Carson, on Sunday she said she’s going for Trump. She’ll be eligible to vote in ‘16.
At which point do we feel we must take this Islamist terrorist problem into our own hands?
Admittedly, not much has changed post Charlie Hebdo, etc., but at some point the people will act on their own, if politicians continue in denial of the threat.
It might have reached the boiling point now where people will be in open revolt against our sellout leaders. That’s what will make a difference.
One appeared dressed normally while a second was hobbling along on aluminum crutches, with an ankle brace on her left foot. The third had a large backpack hanging from her shoulders.
I said to the rest of my waiting party, "What can go wrong here? Shoe bombers and pressure cookers??"
Hoosier Hospitality caused NO one to confront these ladies; not even me; the mouthy one.
Just wait till the next attack...
The left tolerates political Islam, because it wants the same power and control over people.
http://www.politicalislam.com/talk-in-chattanooga-tn/
*Millions* of these fools could be pulverized into radioactive dust before we begin to see REAL confrontation.
And evil hacks like the Obumbler and that Soros-snake will *still* try to weasel their way thru it until the people drag them into the street and make them face justice.
“These 4-P professionals bald-facedly feign belief in a mysterious “violent extremist” virus that seems to afflict only Muslims,...”
This is because the 4-P professionals are Leftists who absolutely are in love with Islam. Even if the Muzzies were to nuke a western city the 4-Ps still wouldn’t do anything constructive against them.
“Hoosier Hospitality caused NO one to confront these ladies; not even me; the mouthy one.”
Pretty neat system they have. It ends in one of 2 ways, both good from their standpoint:
1) If not challenged, then they know the target is very soft.
2) If challenged, then they don’t have to worry about paying for their kids’ college.
In my opinion, this massacre will draw the usual candle vigils, teddy bears, and grief for a short time only. Then everyone will go back to their normal denial of the problem. It will take more than an occasional ISIS hit to shake people out of their political correctness.
“The left tolerates political Islam, because it wants the same power and control over people.”
That’s because the Left and Islam are on the same side of “the struggle/jihad” to destroy mankind’s humanity.
The real danger isn’t Islam, but instead our Leftists who are running the show. Islam is just doing the physical struggle that Leftists are too scared or lazy to do because they know what kind of response they’ll receive from the American people. So the Left just welcomes them in to do the Left’s dirty work.
Islam is the tool or weapon in the hand of the leftists. They must be disarmed of Islam.
I think they 4-Ps wouldn't do anything constructive against them if 50 western cities were nuked.
They would be celebrating that!
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