Posted on 11/14/2015 8:33:50 PM PST by SeekAndFind
It's hard to keep up with the twists and turns in this presidential race. Hillary Clinton under fire on Benghazi! Ben Carson has a theory about the pyramids! Bernie Sanders wrote about rape fantasies! Donald Trump . . . well, Donald Trump! Figuring out which headline will have the biggest impact on the general election is a bit of a parlor game. But what if they have no impact at all?
After the 2012 election, political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck wrote a book called"The Gamble"that looked at the cause of President Obama's victory over Mitt Romney. They sifted through the quantitative voting and polling data and concluded that the supposedly game-changing events --- like Romney's "47 percent" comment, or Obama's poor debate performance in Denver -- had no effect on the outcome.
What mattered, they found, was the direction of the economy. The decline in unemployment, and the growth in GDP, was just enough for Obama to make a credible case for his reelection. Everything else was just noise.
Likewise, there are two statistical measurements that, more than anything else, will determine whether the White House changes parties in 2016: Obama's job approval and the direction of the country, measured by whether voters think we're on the right track or the wrong track.
In terms of job approval, Obama has been under 50 percent for most of his presidency. The most recent Real Clear Politics monthly polling average says just 45 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama has been doing, while 52 percent disapprove. If the president remains net negative, voters should expect to hear a lot from Republicans on how the Democratic nominee is really running for Obama's third term.
(Excerpt) Read more at bostonglobe.com ...
That was also the battle cry in 2012 until Romney took a dive.............
Obama can’t be re-elected.
Intend to vote for Trump. I will not stay home and not vote, but I won’t vote for communists within the Republican Party.
Lol. The stupid LIV will fall asleep again if nothing else happens. The media will paint the economy as roaring and hitlery will be elected.
Lets hope not.
You're absolutely right, that's what was said in 2012................and that's why we have President Romney (/S)
Yep, it was beyond disgusting.
He only gets two terms.
In a rational world it would.
In a rational world the murder of an ambassador by a mob less than two months before an election would doom the incumbent to defeat.
In a rational world.
You're very welcome! To be clear, are you asking to be on the twice-daily Make America Great Again pinglist? No pressure; only if you want to.
Their 2011 map is right by accident, in the large.
Clearly their sample was biased left. Obama plus Stein would have given a Democrat landslide. It’s amazing the professors don’t try to correct the biased data....The Literary Digest once had a perfect record too.
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