Posted on 11/02/2015 5:53:03 PM PST by amorphous
Earlier today, we highlighted commentary from Russia’s Kogalymavia (the airline operating the ill-fated Airbus A321 which crashed in the Sinai Peninsula) where officials said human and technical factors weren’t responsible for the mid-air disaster which killed 224 people.
IS Sinai took credit for “destroying†the plane but it wasn’t immediately clear what the contention was in terms of just how the group went about sabotaging the flight. Subsequently, a series of analysts and commentators opined that there was simply no way the militants could have possessed the technology or the expertise to shoot down a plane flying at 31,000 feet, but as Kogalymavia put it, “a plane cannot simply disintegrate.â€
In short, it seems as though something exploded, and while we can’t know for sure whether someone detonated on board or whether, as former NTSB investigator Alan Diehl told CNN, "final destruction" of the plane was the result of "aerodynamic forces or some other type of G-forces,†the circumstances are exceptionally suspicious especially given where the plane was flying and the current rather “tense†relationship between Moscow and Sunni extremists.
Now, the US has apparently ruled out the possibility that a projectile hit the plane but satellite imagery depicts a “heat flash†at the time of the crash which indicates “some kind of explosion on the aircraft itself, either a fuel tank or a bomb.†Here’s NBC:
While many have speculated that a missile may have struck a Russian commercial airliner that went down over Egypt's Sinai peninsula, U.S. officials are now saying satellite imagery doesn't back up that theory.
A senior defense official told NBC News late Monday that an American infrared satellite detected a heat flash at the same time and in the same vicinity over the Sinai where the Russian passenger plane crashed.
According to the official, U.S. intelligence analysts believe it could have been some kind of explosion on the aircraft itself, either a fuel tank or a bomb, but that there's no indication that a surface-to-air missile brought the plane down.
That same infrared satellite would have been able to track the heat trail of a missile from the ground.
"The speculation that this plane was brought down by a missile is off the table," the official said.
A second senior U.S. defense official also confirmed the surveillance satellite detected a "flash or explosion" in the air over the Sinai at the same time.
According to the official, "the plane disintegrated at a very high altitude," when, as the infrared satellite indicates, "there was an explosion of some kind."
That official also stressed "there is no evidence a missile of any kind brought down the plane"
We'd be remiss if we didn't note that the video released by ISIS which purports to depict the plane exploding in mid-air doesn't appear to show any kind of missile, but rather seems to suggest that someone on the ground knew the exact time when the aircraft was set to explode.
To be clear, there's always the possibility that this is a coincidence and that the explosion which brought down the plane wasn't terror related, but given the circumstances, you certainly can't blame anyone for suspecting the worst and as we noted earlier, the Sinai Peninsula is well within the range of Russia's warplanes flying from Latakia:
I don’t think a Stinger can reach that high.
Sounds like an on-board bomb to me.The Russian part is just too coincidental.
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In addition to the Russians on board the plane, there were also 4 Ukranians. This, of course, could mean nothing or it could mean everything.
The EGYPTIANS claimed they heard the pilot radio control difficulties, but the Russians admonish that no such transmissions occurred.
Since the plane was over the Sinai, it would make sense that Egypt would want to splash cold water on the notion of malfeasance, since it would shed doubt on whether the authorities there are fully in control.
MAYBE he did radio difficulties, but it’s LOGICAL that Egypt would advance that claim.
And that was a very small bomb. It doesn’t take a large one to over pressure the fuselage that’s already pressurized.
Something I keep looking to occur one day, if it hasn't already (e.g. the flight that crashed in the N.E. with control surface failure) is malicious avionics code uploaded, causing a fatal over-control or oscillation with the aircraft's flight control surfaces.
It was reported ISIS was taking credit and claiming to have used their "brains", but wanted to keep how they did it a secret.
The third thing may have been a rupture of the main cabin. But it would be rare that that would lead to total destruction of the airframe.
Just my 3 cents...
Yep, it’s what I’m thinking too.
Missile, probably one provided by obastard to his Muslim bretheren.
Bad life choice, ISIS scum.
PS Prayers for the innocents murdered.
There is a 99.999% chance you are correct.
If it was a bomb, and Russians were targeted, count on the Russians taking several pounds of flesh in retribution. I would not want to be near the perps when the SHTF.
Yeah, if the plane was REALLY at 31,000 feet... As far as I know, the best of the MANPAD types have a maximum altitude of around 26,000 ft. We know Hillary and Barry were passing out MANPAD types to terrorists like candy to kids on Halloween..
Did they also pass out some of the larger types that can reach that high?
Or have the Chinese sold them some of their bigger ones (They are selling them to Turkey).
But easiest answer if the plane was beyond MANPAD range is that Ground crew snuck an altimeter or radio controlled suitcase into the baggage compartment.
Blowing up planes is just such an Allah thing, though...
Openly available info say the block II Stingers can get to 8 km = about 27,000 feet. And that is likely an underestimation.
The chances a Stinger took out an airliner at 31000’ are vanishingly small at best. Likely impossible.
Yup.
They have a effective altitude of about 10,000 ft. The plane was at 31,000 feet.
Nothing the US supplied could hit an aircraft that high. They have about a 12000 foot ceiling.
It is very unlikely that this was a missile. Lots of eyes on the Sinai peninsula and infrared signature of a missile that can reach that altitude is very large. It is too high for a man portable AA missile.
Then again, that has never stopped the conspiracy theorists.
That is my best current guess.
I respectfully disagree. But you may be right.
That’s the Stinger’s horizontal range. It doesn’t have that for vertical range.
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