| Poll | Date |
Trump
|
Carson
|
Rubio
|
Bush
|
Cruz
|
Fiorina
|
Huckabee
|
Paul
|
Kasich
|
Christie
|
Graham
|
Santorum
|
Jindal
|
Pataki
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/14 - 10/25 | 26.8 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Trump +4.8 |
| CBS/NY TimesCBS/NYT | 10/21 - 10/25 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +4 |
| ABC/Wash PostABC/WP | 10/15 - 10/18 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Trump +10 |
| NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ | 10/15 - 10/18 | 25 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Trump +3 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 10/15 - 10/18 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Trump +10 |
| CNN/ORCCNN/ORC | 10/14 - 10/17 | 27 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Trump +5 |
Probably a shorter timeline than that. Once someone wins some primaries-—Trump or Carson-—the whole dynamic changes. Lower tier supporters start to scramble to effect the outcome, no longer just advance their guy.
Some of those polls are WAY off. The CBS/NYT poll shows Cruz/Huckabee/Paul/Kasich all tied at 4%. That’s some serious dope they are smoking.
The polls you cite show Cruz in 5th with Rubio and Bush being Establishment choices and Trump and Carson anti-establishment.
Between now and Iowa the establishment will consolidate to one choice: my bet now is on Rubio.
I think Carson can’t stand up to negative scrutiny. I actually agree with him on replacing Medicare for younger workers with lifelong rolling HSAs, but it’s just too damn easy to misconstrue to work politically, “He’s trying to take away your Medicare!!!!!!!!!!”. Add in concerns about pacifist views and wonky 2A positions, and the January negative ads write themselves.
So. I think it will come down to establishment vs. antiestablishment candidate after NH.
Cruz being the nominee comes down to two one on one battles:
1. Can he beat out Trump for role of antiestablishment candidate? Trump really controls his own destiny but Cruz is as well positioned as anybody to do so. If Trump doesn’t fall down, then he wasn’t beatable anyway. If he does, then I do think Cruz will be the last antiestablishment candidate standing.
2. Who wins a head to head between establishment and antiestablishment? IF it comes down to a head to head, then I think antiestablishment wins, especially if that’s El Jefe. The GOPe splinter strategy was designed to prevent that from happening. Trump has made mincemeat of that strategy. This BTW is why Cruz says that Trump had been immensely helpful to his campaign.
So. Cruz’ path to nomination is being paved by Trump destroying the Jeb splinter strategy. If Trump wasn’t there, the splinter strategy had a very good chance of working. If he doesn’t fall, then that’s it’s own political reality.
In the meantime, Cruz is very well positioned for how the race is evolving, he has a great ground game and the resources to adapt when needed.
The polls really don’t matter at this moment for Cruz as much as say, Bush (because he’s markedly flailing expectations) or Trump (live by the polls, die by them). The dynamics are in flux enough that all Cruz need be doing at this point is positioning himself to take maximum advantage, and that’s exactly what he’s doing.
If you think this kind of strategy is farfetched, it’s exactly how Cruz took out well funded establishment David Dewhurst for Senate. Cruz was never dominate in the polls until the exact time he needed to be and then, boom. And that’s exactly what he said his plan was all along in the Senate race.
New OAN/Gravis poll out today shows Cruz at 7.3% This is a non partisan large sample poll.
I like Ted Cruz but my question is what momentous event does Ted think is likely to happen that will catapult him from 7.3% to 34.7% which is where Trump sits. Its just not an optimistic forecast.