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Why The Fed Is Ready To Hike Despite Weak Jobs Report
Investors Busniness Daily ^ | 10/26/2015 | ANDREA RIQUIER

Posted on 10/27/2015 3:57:53 AM PDT by expat_panama

Was the dismal September jobs report the nail in the coffin for a 2015 interest-rate rise? Markets are acting as if it were, even as some economists think Federal Reserve officials see things differently.

Monthly job gains, which had averaged over 200,000 for most of the year, plunged to 142,000 in September and a downwardly revised 136,000 in August. Private hiring was the weakest in three years. The workweek and labor-force participation rates also declined even further.

Meanwhile, other data showed U.S. manufacturing and retail sales nearly stalled last month...

***

There's Always Next Season

An hour after the jobs report was released, Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joe LaVorgna said that he will push his Fed "liftoff" forecast out to March 2016....

***

China's central bank slashed its key lending rates on Friday...

***

Yellen Still Wants Rate Hike?

Yet some prominent economists argue that despite some dissent, most Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, still favor a 2015 rate hike...

***

"The leadership has signaled that such a move is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected, and our forecast is similar to theirs," the analysts wrote, noting the risk of weaker-than-expected economic and market conditions.

Many analysts believe that financial markets stabilized only because investors think the Fed is on hold indefinitely.

But in a separate note, Goldman economists noted that most Fed policymakers have sharply curtailed their hiring expectations...

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; federalreserve; investing
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To: Flick Lives
The Fed couldn’t hike its own socks.

Management of Perspective Economics (MOPE) otherwise known as a pantload.

21 posted on 10/27/2015 6:39:41 AM PDT by Stentor ("The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.")
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To: expat_panama

They’ve been floating a rate increase for months now. Ain’t gonna happen until closer to the election - and then only if it looks like a Republican might win.


22 posted on 10/27/2015 6:50:57 AM PDT by mykroar ("Never believe anything until it has been officially denied." - Otto von Bismarck)
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To: expat_panama
I'm really getting tired of this Fed-watching and trying to read their BullSht...!!

"The leadership has signaled that such a move is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected..."

I think Bernake and then Yellin were ordered by 0bama to try to do two things above all else.
1) Have the unemployment rate appear to drop.
2) Have the stock markets (& 401ks) appear to be healthy.
They got lucky in that economic activity was slow enough in most places so that all the QEs did not set off domestic inflation. But not so slow that the China/Asia economies took until 2015 to really begin to tank.

Looks like 0bama got what he wanted. The US economy will still suck next year but perhaps not so badly that the 0 and Dems get blamed before the 2016 elections and Hillary may win.

If an R wins, the economy and everything else will immediately begin to greatly concern the media.

23 posted on 10/27/2015 6:59:20 AM PDT by citizen (America is-or was-The Great Melting Pot. JEB won't even speak American in his own home. NO Bush!!)
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To: expat_panama
humph Wilson [spit]

WILSON SEES DAWN OF NEW ERA IN BUISNESS
Aims to Make Prosperity Free to Have Unimpeded Momentum

FED created > Six months later WWI breaks out > leading to US formally entering the war and > the Russian Revolution.

Were these events caused by Wilson's FED?? I can't say that but neither did it's creation prevent them. Also.....I'm sure there are plenty of other world calamities I can blame on the FED.

Now, when did that Titanic boat sink....?

24 posted on 10/27/2015 7:34:21 AM PDT by citizen (America is-or was-The Great Melting Pot. JEB won't even speak American in his own home. NO Bush!!)
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To: expat_panama

That is a REALLY old joke.
And in the original they do not say “sewage”!


25 posted on 10/27/2015 7:50:00 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: willk
they are getting pressure from the regime.

Maybe, but my bet's that any rate pressure is going the other direction w/ self deluding Fed Committee members wanting to prove O right by raising rates.  So far more sober heads have been seeing that a right now a rate hike would spike deflation and annihilate the US economy.

26 posted on 10/27/2015 9:32:17 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: citizen
Now, when did that Titanic boat sink....?

--not sure but I say Shoeless Joe would never have sold out the Sox if it weren't for the Fed...

27 posted on 10/27/2015 9:36:20 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

The jobs picture is a direct result of government action. Government has made it very expensive to employ people and is making it more and more difficult to be your own boss and employ yourself.

Globalization and open markets are responsible for very little of the secular job losses we’re seeing. Deregulate healthcare and get rid of the NLRB and reduce down the costs of employment and you’ll see the numbers bounce back up. Use the Commerce Clause to attack state and local laws that limit competition.

Why can’t a doctor cross state lines or a plumber or an electrician or any profession? Why should licensed realtors be granted a monopoly on home sales or car dealers on auto sales? Let the market rule and do so even in education and you’ll see better across the board.

Those are the real impediments, but Trump (AS SEEN ON TV) the Trojan Horse, understands nothing of that. He’s Hillary’s stalking horse. Watch him Perot out to clear the way for her.


28 posted on 10/27/2015 6:49:20 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: central_va; Jim Noble; expat_panama

Why would a poster that regularly calls for a new government bureaucracy to manage trade and reduce market liberty for me be taken seriously on a conservative forum? Economic liberty is individual liberty.


29 posted on 10/27/2015 6:50:45 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

“Globalization and open markets are responsible for very little of the secular job losses we’re seeing.”

Not true. We have been hemmoraging jobs since NAFTA and way way before Obama ever came on board. Our trade agreements are ridiculous. A ten year old child could have crafted better deals.

We have the highest corporate tax rate in the world. Our companies cannot compete here in the US so they go over seas. And now as Trump as spoken about we have several trillion dollars sitting off shore that will flood back into the US if they lower the corporate rate and offer a one time low tax penalty to bring the money back. Everyone has been aware of this problem for years now. This is not new.

Taxes, regulation and bad trade deals are crippling our country.


30 posted on 10/27/2015 6:56:13 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: 1010RD
new government bureaucracy

A tariff does not require a new govt agency. You are reaching....

31 posted on 10/27/2015 7:11:38 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 1010RD
Globalization and open markets are responsible for very little of the secular job losses we’re seeing.

You are on crack.

32 posted on 10/27/2015 7:13:48 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Globalization is the accessing of new markets. It’s a good thing. Open markets is what America is supposed to be and be about. Open markets are the liberty to trade, not just domestically, but across borders. It’s the road to wealth.

Tagging free trade as the cause of job loss misses the forest. We have government determined and paid for education. That’s wrong. We have regulations and taxes that largely limit individuals ability to run their own economic live. We have interventionists and central planners that delight in meddling in the market. We need less, not more government.


33 posted on 10/27/2015 7:54:36 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: central_va

Who implements the tariff? Can’t you see the obvious cronyism in the sugar tariff and government in general? Why expand that with more opportunities for graft?


34 posted on 10/27/2015 7:55:31 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
Ok, lets put this BS to rest right now. So what is more intrusive? The annual financial enema we all have to go thru with the IRS or a tariff on consumption of foreign made products and a retail sales tax? Hmm? Which would you prefer?

And don't quip we will end up with both, this question is hypothetical replacing the income taxes with consumption taxes.

35 posted on 10/27/2015 7:59:20 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 1010RD

Retaliatory tariffs ok?


36 posted on 10/27/2015 8:00:06 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

consumption taxes


37 posted on 10/27/2015 8:17:03 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: central_va

No, why punish Americans for what foreigners are doing to their people/country?


38 posted on 10/27/2015 8:17:35 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
No, why punish Americans for what foreigners are doing to their people/country?

Short term pain, long term gain. The tariff is going to influence the behavior of US corporations to not offshore their production IN THE FUTURE. It is about the NEXT factory. It is about onshoring production again.

Additionally the tariff would not have to be large to offset the reduced production costs. The corps might choose to eat the tariff.

39 posted on 10/27/2015 8:28:19 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 1010RD

Fortunately your postilion is very fringe and it is neither popular or conservative. Only the political class and the corporate class combined(fascists) believe in this no border, no tariff one world future. Your time is almost up. Go Trump go!


40 posted on 10/27/2015 8:31:14 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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