Posted on 10/27/2015 3:57:53 AM PDT by expat_panama
Was the dismal September jobs report the nail in the coffin for a 2015 interest-rate rise? Markets are acting as if it were, even as some economists think Federal Reserve officials see things differently.
Monthly job gains, which had averaged over 200,000 for most of the year, plunged to 142,000 in September and a downwardly revised 136,000 in August. Private hiring was the weakest in three years. The workweek and labor-force participation rates also declined even further.
Meanwhile, other data showed U.S. manufacturing and retail sales nearly stalled last month...
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There's Always Next Season
An hour after the jobs report was released, Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joe LaVorgna said that he will push his Fed "liftoff" forecast out to March 2016....
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China's central bank slashed its key lending rates on Friday...
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Yellen Still Wants Rate Hike?
Yet some prominent economists argue that despite some dissent, most Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, still favor a 2015 rate hike...
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"The leadership has signaled that such a move is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected, and our forecast is similar to theirs," the analysts wrote, noting the risk of weaker-than-expected economic and market conditions.
Many analysts believe that financial markets stabilized only because investors think the Fed is on hold indefinitely.
But in a separate note, Goldman economists noted that most Fed policymakers have sharply curtailed their hiring expectations...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Management of Perspective Economics (MOPE) otherwise known as a pantload.
They’ve been floating a rate increase for months now. Ain’t gonna happen until closer to the election - and then only if it looks like a Republican might win.
"The leadership has signaled that such a move is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected..."
I think Bernake and then Yellin were ordered by 0bama to try to do two things above all else.
1) Have the unemployment rate appear to drop.
2) Have the stock markets (& 401ks) appear to be healthy.
They got lucky in that economic activity was slow enough in most places so that all the QEs did not set off domestic inflation. But not so slow that the China/Asia economies took until 2015 to really begin to tank.
Looks like 0bama got what he wanted. The US economy will still suck next year but perhaps not so badly that the 0 and Dems get blamed before the 2016 elections and Hillary may win.
If an R wins, the economy and everything else will immediately begin to greatly concern the media.
WILSON SEES DAWN OF NEW ERA IN BUISNESS
Aims to Make Prosperity Free to Have Unimpeded Momentum
FED created > Six months later WWI breaks out > leading to US formally entering the war and > the Russian Revolution.
Were these events caused by Wilson's FED?? I can't say that but neither did it's creation prevent them. Also.....I'm sure there are plenty of other world calamities I can blame on the FED.
Now, when did that Titanic boat sink....?
That is a REALLY old joke.
And in the original they do not say “sewage”!
Maybe, but my bet's that any rate pressure is going the other direction w/ self deluding Fed Committee members wanting to prove O right by raising rates. So far more sober heads have been seeing that a right now a rate hike would spike deflation and annihilate the US economy.
--not sure but I say Shoeless Joe would never have sold out the Sox if it weren't for the Fed...
The jobs picture is a direct result of government action. Government has made it very expensive to employ people and is making it more and more difficult to be your own boss and employ yourself.
Globalization and open markets are responsible for very little of the secular job losses we’re seeing. Deregulate healthcare and get rid of the NLRB and reduce down the costs of employment and you’ll see the numbers bounce back up. Use the Commerce Clause to attack state and local laws that limit competition.
Why can’t a doctor cross state lines or a plumber or an electrician or any profession? Why should licensed realtors be granted a monopoly on home sales or car dealers on auto sales? Let the market rule and do so even in education and you’ll see better across the board.
Those are the real impediments, but Trump (AS SEEN ON TV) the Trojan Horse, understands nothing of that. He’s Hillary’s stalking horse. Watch him Perot out to clear the way for her.
Why would a poster that regularly calls for a new government bureaucracy to manage trade and reduce market liberty for me be taken seriously on a conservative forum? Economic liberty is individual liberty.
“Globalization and open markets are responsible for very little of the secular job losses we’re seeing.”
Not true. We have been hemmoraging jobs since NAFTA and way way before Obama ever came on board. Our trade agreements are ridiculous. A ten year old child could have crafted better deals.
We have the highest corporate tax rate in the world. Our companies cannot compete here in the US so they go over seas. And now as Trump as spoken about we have several trillion dollars sitting off shore that will flood back into the US if they lower the corporate rate and offer a one time low tax penalty to bring the money back. Everyone has been aware of this problem for years now. This is not new.
Taxes, regulation and bad trade deals are crippling our country.
A tariff does not require a new govt agency. You are reaching....
You are on crack.
Globalization is the accessing of new markets. It’s a good thing. Open markets is what America is supposed to be and be about. Open markets are the liberty to trade, not just domestically, but across borders. It’s the road to wealth.
Tagging free trade as the cause of job loss misses the forest. We have government determined and paid for education. That’s wrong. We have regulations and taxes that largely limit individuals ability to run their own economic live. We have interventionists and central planners that delight in meddling in the market. We need less, not more government.
Who implements the tariff? Can’t you see the obvious cronyism in the sugar tariff and government in general? Why expand that with more opportunities for graft?
And don't quip we will end up with both, this question is hypothetical replacing the income taxes with consumption taxes.
Retaliatory tariffs ok?
consumption taxes
No, why punish Americans for what foreigners are doing to their people/country?
Short term pain, long term gain. The tariff is going to influence the behavior of US corporations to not offshore their production IN THE FUTURE. It is about the NEXT factory. It is about onshoring production again.
Additionally the tariff would not have to be large to offset the reduced production costs. The corps might choose to eat the tariff.
Fortunately your postilion is very fringe and it is neither popular or conservative. Only the political class and the corporate class combined(fascists) believe in this no border, no tariff one world future. Your time is almost up. Go Trump go!
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