What Paul Ryan Has That Kevin McCarthy And John Boehner Don’t

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 10/22/15 | Harry Enten

[1010RD]

Paul Ryan has made some pretty steep demands of the House Republican caucus — and particularly the group of adamant conservatives known as the Freedom Caucus — as a condition of becoming the House speaker. The Freedom Caucus voted Wednesday night to support Ryan as speaker, but there remains a chance that Ryan could walk away from the job, just as John Boehner and Kevin McCarthy did.

If he is elected speaker, Ryan may still struggle to hold the Republican caucus together, but his voting record suggests that he does have a few things going for him that neither Boehner nor McCarthy had.

For one thing, he is more conservative, putting him closer to the 30 or so members of the Freedom Caucus who want to take a harder line in negotiations with Democrats. The group was instrumental in making Boehner’s life miserable and the speakership unattractive to McCarthy.

We can see how conservative they are by looking at their voting records in Congress. Specifically, we can look at the first dimension of their DW-Nominate scores, an algorithm that rates members of Congress on a liberal-conservative scale based on their legislative votes (where 1 is the most conservative and -1 is most liberal). The average Freedom Caucus member scores a 0.65. That’s far more conservative than the average House Republican’s score of 0.49.

Ryan’s ideological score of 0.56 puts him halfway between the average Republican and the average Freedom Caucus member. His score is more conservative than either Boehner’s 0.52 or McCarthy’s 0.46. To put those scores in perspective, Ryan is in the 36th percentile for conservatism among the Republican caucus, while Boehner is in the 46th percentile and McCarthy is in the 56th percentile. Will that extra bit of conservatism be enough to satisfy the Freedom Caucus?

Even if it isn’t, Ryan has another trick up his sleeve: His voting record suggests that he’s less a part of the establishment than Boehner or McCarthy. Freedom Caucus members are considerably less likely to be members of the establishment. We see that in the second dimension of DW-Nominate. Representatives with a more negative score tend to be more anti-establishment. The average Republican has a score of 0.09, while the average Freedom Caucus member is at -0.19. Ryan clocks in at a score of -0.23, which is about in line with the average Freedom Caucus member. Boehner has a score of 0.03 over his career, and McCarthy is at 0.25.

Ryan’s record on these metrics gives us an explanation of why Boehner pushed Ryan’s bid so hard. Ryan has a record that lines up with the Freedom Caucus better than either Boehner’s or McCarthy’s, though he isn’t so conservative as to be too far out of the Republican mainstream. The question ultimately is whether Ryan’s record will be good enough to satisfy the Freedom Caucus over the long term. We simply don’t know given that the Republican caucus has become more conservative and confrontational over the past few years.

[1010RD]

FiveThirtyEight is a liberal site, but Nick Silver is a very good statistician and their political analysis, though slanted, contains good data.

It's worth remembering that the Speaker has to represent a broadly diverse coalition that spans the nation and the gamut. Without that broadly diverse coalition we'd have no majority.

Here's where Ryan falls on the spectrum:

Note that there are some Freedom Caucus members who sit in the upper middle.

We have to understand how to win via coalitions. Even the Freedom Caucus is a coalition and required 80% of its 40 members to affirm Ryan. It's the very nature of a republic and the way we got our Constitution and Bill of Rights. The dreaded "compromise" can work in our favor despite the beliefs of Handwringers and Concern Trolls.

[napscoordinator]

I wanted Ryan for VP........but today I want him challenged in the primary and gone the day following the election.

[silverleaf]

Ditto. Something very weird happened to this guy. Even his eyes are weird now. It’s like the old Paul Ryan was replaced by a pod person.

[1010RD]

Who do you see running against him in his district?

[stilloftyhenight]

Ryan is bad on illegal immigration, and the 2nd. Amendment. He is bad on TPP and other globalist positions. He’ll sell us out in a heartbeat! He must be stopped. According to Numbers USA, some who were supporting Ryan are backing 0ff because of the outrage of the citizens against Ryan.
Keep hitting them! Call. We can’t afford this globalist shill as Speaker! LET’S ROLL!!!

Contact info here: http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

[stilloftyhenight]

Ryan is bad on illegal immigration, and the 2nd. Amendment. He is bad on TPP and other globalist positions. He’ll sell us out in a heartbeat! He must be stopped. According to Numbers USA, some who were supporting Ryan are backing 0ff because of the outrage of the citizens against Ryan.
Keep hitting them! Call. We can’t afford this globalist shill as Speaker! LET’S ROLL!!!

Contact info here: http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

[bestintxas]

He is a liberal Northerner.

No one should be elected Speaker who will not answer affirmatively with these questions:

1. do you believe the Executive actions on gun control is constitutional?

2. If so, will you commit to immediately instigate impeachment proceedings against Obama if you become Speaker?

[Texas Fossil]

The Freedom Caucus voted Wednesday night to support Ryan as speaker

According to their rules, that is not exactly what happened. Approval required 80%, he got 70%.

[1010RD]

Wow, I didn’t know that they changed their rules. Do you have a source on that?

[1010RD]

That is true and good questions and if only the entire nation were Texas, eh? The Speaker will be an amalgam and not likely a Constitutionalist as I prefer. We’re not there and haven’t been for a century nearly.

[Texas Fossil]

The caucus' rules state that if 80% of the members agree on a position, the entire group will stand behind it.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/house-speaker-freedom-caucus/index.html

I've seen CNN get it wrong before, but I have seen this elsewhere too. This was the first hit on the search.

[trebb]

Life is a myriad set of grays and there are some who think it is all black and white. They call themselves idealists and I call them delusional.

They rave against "voting for the lesser evil" and ignore what happens when the most evil gets a few extra shots.

Sane people can disagree with many aspects of reality but stay rooted in it and try to change what is. Idealists have a take-no-hostage attitude and the lack of drive/courage to implement their desires.

I would prefer a hard-line Conservative in the Speaker seat, but I know it won't happen and might not even work - that person would get run out before the seat got warm. Reality can bite, but there's no getting around it.

Now for a short public service announcement to all on FR:

I prefer Cruz and my money goes to his campaign, hence the Cruz link. If you like someone else, donate to him/her (find your own link to do it) and if you use FR and don't donate, then it is my personal view that you are a Left Wing plant.

GO CRUZ!! Keep it up Trump!!

Donate to Cruz

Donate to FR

[hoosiermama]

We must remember Ryan has been playing the get-along game and thus up to this point has been under the influence/control of Boehner. What will be interesting is how he performs as his own person Will be swing left or right? He will not stay the same

[grania]

Stopping and reversing the invasion of the US is first. Without that, your two “musts” don’t have a chance.

[Nextrush]

Why argue about it since Rush Limbaugh’s hunch is that Paul Ryan’s encounter with the “House Freedom Caucus” with his demands and the decision of most of them to support him was all part of a script written weeks ago by the political insiders?

I think it was all for show period. My fake conservative congressman is in this group, Scott Perry. Perry had Boehner in my district two and a half years ago for a fundraiser.

[bert]

with out roundness you can’t roll

there is inadequate roundness to roll as you suggest. that is, to win, there must be power.

purist conservatives lack the raw political power to prevail

i would suggest that given the spectrum of conservatives Ryan is about in the middle and that is his appeal

[Nextrush]

Paul Ryan has a 58 percent rating from Conservative Review and that’s an F rating.

PAUL RYAN NO....PAUL RYAN NO....PAUL RYAN NO...when you start shouting it sounds like “PAUL RINO”.

[novemberslady]

The dreaded "compromise" can work in our favor despite the beliefs of Handwringers and Concern Trolls.

Hand wringers and concern trolls...?
That don't want boehner 3.0.
Boehner is an infection that just won't go away.

I'd rather have nancy, at least she does her job, and represents the people who put her there.

[novemberslady]

ps-The only ones who reach across the isle to compromise are republicans.
What the hell is wrong with them?

[Liz]

Let's give Ryan a flash-card test---just to get his gut reaction.

Will Ryan continue Obama's plan to integrate Somali Muslims in the state of Maine?