Posted on 10/22/2015 10:19:33 AM PDT by blam
Tyler Durden
10/22/2015
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Whenever we at the Automatic Earth explain, as we must have done at least a hundred times in our existence, that, and why, we refuse to define inflation and deflation as rising or falling prices (only), we always get a lot of comments and reactions implying that people either don’t understand why, or they think it’s silly to use a definition that nobody else seems to use.
-More or less- recent events, though, show us once more why we’re right to insist on inflation being defined in terms of the interaction of money-plus-credit supply with money velocity (aka spending). We’re right because the price rises/falls we see today are but a delayed, lagging, consequence of what deflation truly is, they are not deflation itself. Deflation itself has long begun, but because of confusing -if not conflicting- definitions, hardly a soul recognizes it for what it is.
Moreover, the role the money supply plays in that interaction gets smaller, fast, as debt, in the guise of overindebtedness, forces various players in the global economy, from consumers to companies to governments, to cut down on spending, and heavily. We are as we speak witnessing a momentous debt deleveraging, or debt deflation, in real time, even if prices don’t yet reflect that. Consumer prices truly are but lagging indicators.
The overarching problem with all this is that if you look just at -consumer- price movements to define inflation or deflation, you will find it impossible to understand what goes on.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
DEFINITION of 'Doctor Copper'
Market lingo for the base metal that is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy - from homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission - demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is reflected in the market price of copper. Generally, rising copper prices suggest strong copper demand and hence a growing global economy, while declining copper prices may indicate sluggish demand and an imminent economic slowdown.
In other words, we've been predicting massive inflation for 7 years, this is our explanation for why we were really, really wrong.
Everything except my McDonalds value meal, which has increased in price by about fifty percent over the last several months.
For sure, you don’t want to be “that guy” who bought CAT at $106. :-)
But I’m betting that in a couple years I’ll be selling my $63 CAT at $106...
I haven’t even noticed, maybe that’s why my beer belly is shrinking.
Boxes getting smaller = Obamasized
I don't know.
I don't believe anything I read anymore.
I posted the below article last week because it made me chuckle that it 'sounds like me.' (Up is Down/Down is Up)
"I Woke Up This Morning After Horrible Economic News, First Question Was How Much Are Stocks Up"
Thank you.
I’d love to see deflation if wages stay constant.
Always liked the Egg McMuffin but in recent years I make them at home with thick slices of swiss, real bacon and two fried eggs. And instead of butter on the English muffin, I use olive oil. Really good.
I don't know what *YOU* are talking about. All i've seen for the last seven years is massive inflation. By my estimate of the change in cost of items I purchased in 2007 versus now, inflation is running nearly 100% for that time period.
A quart of oil in 2007 was $0.85. Now it is $4.00.
Every item you buy is up 100%? Sure.
A quart of oil in 2007 was $0.85. Now it is $4.00.
That's an interesting anecdote.
“Long article saying what I have said for a while-—we are in serious worldwide deflation.”
I have had the same opinion...there are too many phony “economists” who simply do not understand the difference between inflation/deflation and price increases. Same ignorance that caused the great depressions (yes, there were two) in the thirties.
Remove taxes and regulations and the nature of immigration changes a bit, big industry immigrates from all over the world. Remove government welfare of all sorts and the third world stops swamping us and the tide reverses while the incoming mix trends back to productive people.Remove the government from education altogether and most of the brains of the world will eventually reside here. Remove the government from medicine and insurance and American medicine will become cheap and quality of care and medicines will head out on a long curve upward.
It wasn’t long ago that a BK Junior Whopper was #.99. Now it is $1.89 in the same store. The dollar menus shrank and shrank then all disappeared.
Tuna fish. In 2007 it was $0.50 . In 2015, it is $0.95.
Car Battery. In 2007 it was ~ $45.00. In 2015 it is $85.00.
Milk. In 207 it was $2.00/gallon. In 2015 it is $4.00/gallon.
McDonalds cheese burger. In 2007 it was $0.55. Now it is $1.25.
Gasoline was $1.65 in 2007, went up to $3.85, and is now back down to $2.35, even though the price of oil has dropped greatly since 2007.
Used tires were $20.00 in 2007. They are $40.00 now.
Hershey candy. Was a 10 pack in 2007 for $1.00. Is now a 5 pack for that same $1.00.
If you aren't seeing the inflation, you are probably not doing much of your own shopping.
That actually happened through the 90s after the Reagan measures really took hold. My income did not actually change in that decade but I was less and less harried by bills and prices. A dollar bought more in 1998 than it did in 1989. That was relative deflation, not absolute. The money supply continued to increase but at a rate slower than productivity.
It’s the new ripoff. Soap bars are smaller, toilet paper tubes are bigger, and everything else. Anybody who claims there’s no inflation is a fool.
I saw gas much higher than $1.65 in 2007.
Your prices are suspect.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.