Posted on 10/18/2015 4:34:29 PM PDT by RaceBannon
As Vladimir Putin orders airstrikes against rebels of all stripes fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime, there are important strategic economic goals behind Russia’s actions in Syria. The short term goal is easy to discern: prevent Assad’s collapse as no alternative suitable to Russian interests exists, preserve Russia’s only naval base in the Middle East at Tartus, and promote Russia both at home and abroad as a world power that counterbalances American hegemony.
Much of the media has focused on Putin as a personal driver of Russian behavior. While forays into Georgia and Ukraine have accomplished the tactical goals of preventing increased European Union presence in Russia’s sphere of influence, these have come at a high cost both politically and economically in the form of isolation and sanctions. Putin seems to have concluded that intervening in Syria in the name of fighting terrorism can only help repair Russia’s battered image.
The current buildup at Tartus and Latakia is nothing new: since Hafez al-Assad’s rise to power in 1970, the Former Soviet Union and then Russia was and is a stalwart ally, long attempting to position Syria as a counterbalance to American and Israeli military superiority in the Middle East.
Russia’s actions are also a message to the world: unlike the US, which abandoned long-time ally Hosni Mubarak during his time of need in Egypt, Russia is prepared to intervene, militarily if necessary, to preserve a friendly regime in danger. Therefore, it pays for autocrats to court Moscow, especially if they possess valuable resources or are in prime strategic locations.
While Vladimir Putin ostensibly espouses the acceptable goal of a global alliance against IS, the strategic context is that he has entered into a sectarian alliance with Shia Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the proxy army Hezbollah (The P4+1) against the American-backed Sunni alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE, all of whom insist that Assad has no future in Syria.
Through its airstrikes, Russia continues to advance the prior Syrian strategy of focusing efforts against pro-Western rebels, with the recognition that, while dangerous, the Islamic State is the one party in the conflict the West will never support.
The Islamic State will take advantage of both the respite, and the propaganda value of being the recognized number one enemy of the infidel coalition, which it uses to rally supporters simply by pointing out that its enemies are gathering to destroy the renewed Caliphate.
The one strategic motivation for Russia that has been widely ignored is the economic one. Qatar, the richest country in the world per capita and also owner of the world’s largest natural gas field, proposed in 2009 to jointly construct a gas pipeline running through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and into Europe. Assad, not wanting to provoke Moscow, refused to sign on. Instead, he floated an alternative: an Iran-Iraq-Syria and possibly Lebanon pipeline, to then follow under the Mediterranean to Europe. The Qatar-Turkey pipeline would run through majority Sunni countries with the exception of Syria’s Alawite regime. Assad’s counter proposal follows the Shia crescent.
Russia, not wanting to lose its primary market in Europe, is adamantly opposed to a prospective Qatari project. A military presence in Syria will guarantee that even if Assad is removed from power, the pipeline will not be built. It will look on favorably to the Iranian proposal, provided Gazprom and other state-owned companies get their share of the pie.
Pipeline politics in the region have a long and varied history of Russian involvement. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was built only after Moscow’s demand for an alternative pipeline for Azeri oil to Russia was met. During the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, US intelligence officials determined that an explosion on the pipeline near the Turkish-Georgian border was carried out via Russian government cyber warfare. Days after the explosion, Russian fighter jets bombed positions in Georgia close to the pipeline. Although the BTC pipeline was built precisely to avoid Russian interference, the Kremlin has never let that stop them.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have also begun construction on a joint natural gas pipeline, the TANAP. This project’s stated goal is to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas, a prospect that cannot please Moscow. Both the BTC and TANAP bypass Armenia, a Russian ally and wary of its neighbors in the Caucasus.
As the endpoint for the Qatari project, Turkey is adamant in calling for Assad to step down or be removed, which dovetails with the proposed Sunni pipeline. By clearing the way through Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia can receive a handsome return on their investment in backing jihadis fighting Assad. On the other hand, Iran will not sit idly by and leave potential billions of dollars in the hands of its ideological and regional enemies.
Russian intervention in Syria is just beginning. There is every possibility that it will expand as more targets are found, perhaps those that are in the way of the proposed Iranian pipeline, directly threatening Damascus and by extension, the Russian monopoly of gas exports to Europe. For the time being, Putin has the world’s attention.
Russia is eliminating islamo scum. Right now that is all that matters.
After the islam trash is long gone, we’ll work out the sane details.
It may be that Putin is only interested in propping up Assad and pipelines. He is smart and bold and greedy. I would give him no reason to think he can do anything beyond Syria.
I don’t think that it’s good for us if he takes the Saudi oil or shuts down their ability to pump it.
One thing I know for certain, I don’t have any faith in Obama’s abilities to handle this.
I dont think Putin cares one lick about ISIL, he cares about OIL and that Pipeline, else, why is CHINA involved now?
you think CHINA cares about ISIL?
THAT is the question
Yep, it’s about pipelines, and whose will reach Europe.
The trouble is that the Sunnis are backing ISIS to get it accomplished, and Obuma signed on. Now we’re in the impossible position of either backing ISIS, or letting Putin have his way. Checkmate.
We need a smarter President.
Russians are not unlike Americans, they want to enjoy life and prevent islamo trash from killing innocents.
I’ll deal with the bigger picture once we get rid of the filth endangering us all.
All islamos must die or be isolated on a remote island.
” While forays into Georgia and Ukraine have accomplished the tactical goals of preventing increased European Union presence in Russia’s sphere of influence, these have come at a high cost both politically and economically in the form of isolation and sanctions.”
Look at where Georgia and Ukraine lie. If Syria falls to ISIS, Ukraine and Georgia become Islamo jump off points into Russia and Europe. Especially with Turkey being an Islamo country with NATO protection. Russia is not conceding the Black Sea anytime soon.
It might be time to understand that Syria is not Russia’s expansionism into the Middle East but it is in fact their firewall. It’s easier to prop up a dictator who hates muzzies than to fight them on your own shore.
Russia is killing off some islamonazi scum, including those terrorist gangs sponsored and financed by The current USA regime. The longer- term price of this will include continued and probably greater Russian control over energy supplies to Europe. This is Russia’s great neutralizer (at least defensively, and turn some?) of the activities Russia sees as threatening or at least expansionist from Germany ( with Soros and thus Obama aide and abetting). World war 2 continues in at least these ways. Following the money ( or energy supply routes- and control over the supplies that feed them) does indeed explain much. If Putin continues to save or help The Syrian government protect some Chrietians from islamonazi myrder and torture it’s fine with him, but we should still keep an eye on those larger energy matters to more completely understand what’s happening
You didn’t think Syria wasn’t going to have to pay back as much as possible for being saved did you?
he’s not Bush/Obama, neither of whom had any intention of making Iraq pay us back a large sum.
And Iraq rebuilding was a moneypit that went into somebody’s pit.
is there such a thing as Russian building contractors? lol
they will be the first ones chosen to rebuild Syria.
I just hope Russia wins fast enough to get “refugees tossed back in and then let Russia kill the ISIS “refugees”
I’m good with Russia eliminating all islamo scum.
I know. People are so upset that they’re taking out the “moderate” forces first.
Yeah, Putin is stupid enough to think ISIS is an ally. Not.
Once all the “moderates” are gone, the world will have to choose between Assad and ISIS, and it should be an easy choice.
As for Israel, Russia said they can attack targets once they leave Syrian soil. Analysts have said that’s not enough time to stop weapons caches, etc from getting to their locations, as multiple trucks can leave multiple locations out of Syria at the same time.
Dont know what will come of that.
I’ve met, befriended and studied Russian people since the 70’s and have decided they are just like us in America.
Disgusting filth like islamic morons just bring us closer.
Well, they would have with a normal president.
‘zackly.
The sooner the better! It would be a good thing to see those responsible for creating and supporting these monsters to eventually face international war crime trials and justice.
The short answer is no.
Russia and China as allies is far too complex a subject to broach here but briefly, the focus is oil and their shared border.
The long view for both has always been grounded in tradition and in correcting slights they perceive that the world at large has dealt them over time.
bkmk
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