Posted on 10/14/2015 7:38:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
My last post on this subject got a little pushback, so I decided to look at some other data points to see if Trump voters are likely to switch to Ted Cruz if they start to see their American Idol as more of a political apprentice. So far, these data confirm the initial thought: Cruz will pick up his share of Trump supporters, but nowhere near the majority.
Three recent national polls asked respondents who their second choice is. Two helpfully provided tabulations for the percentage of each second choice by the person’s first choice (i.e., the percent of Trump backers who choose Cruz, Carson, etc. as their second choice). In each poll, PPP and USAT/Suffolk, only thirteen percent of Trump backers chose Cruz as their second choice.
The FOX national poll also asked the first/second choice question, but did not provide direct tabs of the share of Trump backers who chose Cruz, et al, as their second choice. It did, however, do the next best thing: it gave the entire GOP race standings if Trump were out. Trump polled 26 percent in the overall standings and Cruz polled 8 percent. Without Trump, Cruz rose to 11 percent, a three point gain. Three divided by 26 is about 11 1/2 percent, nearly identical to the thirteen percent from the other two polls.
This might seem to be too low given that Cruz is actively courting Trump and his backers. But the PPP poll suggests that effort is not yet paying off. Cruz’s name ID among Trump backers is only 47 percent positive, 37 percent negative. He still has a lot of selling to do before Trumpets think “Ted Cruz” when their thoughts stray from His Hairness.
Now, there are plenty of scenarios in which I can imagine Cruz will do well with current Trump supporters. If Cruz breaks through in Iowa and Bush recovers to win New Hampshire, for example, he could pick up loads of Trump supporters in an ensuing one-on-one. Or if Ben Carson, who currently is the Trump backers’ favorite second choice, fades, perhaps the junior Senator from Texas will gain those voters love.
But right now none of those things are clearly in the offing. If The Donald were to drop out tomorrow, all the data show Ted Cruz would not gain even a plurality of Trump backers’ votes.
If NR says so then it must be true.../s
I think he is for a lot of folks like me. Trump’s VP. I think a little Trump needs to rub off on Cruz in how to cut through political B.S. and visa versa, Trump getting a deeper dedication in federal constitutional limits, so Cruz can walk into the Presidency after Trump as long as Trump’s Presidency is good to great.
Polls are meaningless to me, especially the majority of them that are push polls. Besides, whatever the reality is... it is dynamic, not static. The way things eventually fall out must be very dependent on events still to occur, how Trump/Carsen handle themselves, and how Cruz handles himself, at a minimum.
Notice their wet dream of jeb pulling out New Hampshire...really???
Trump is first, Cruz is my second.
I think this is both hypothetical and moot.
Hypothetical because most voters, despite what they now think, really don’t know what they would do should Trump no longer be in the race.
Moot because Trump isn’t going anywhere anyway (except up).
A Senator first? No way.
I would reverse that order but we do seem pretty much on the same page.
Too early. Cruz’s ground game is working delegates, not brand. He has the money and time to work brand/recognition.
My two cents, anyway.
“Cruz must be crushed before he climbs more in the polls” MSM and GOPe. By the way I am first a Trump supporter but happy to back anyone these clowns put down in the Republican Race. Cram it clowns!
These freaking pundits, with all their supposed smarts & polls & charts & facts haven’t been right about anything in a long time.
Ditto
If Trumps not there all bets are off as to what would happen. If he isn't, it won't be pretty for the GOP or the country.
After Trump the rest look so anemic its almost a stay home. I guess Cruz would be our second choice.
Can someone explain the appeal of Carson. I get it that he is an outsider, an intelligent and likable guy but other than that what makes Carsons’ voters think his is presidential?
I completely agree...what substance does Carson have? Like you said...he is a very likable guy, but what else does he have?
National Rinoview has jumped the shark.
Never underestimate the power of coming off as intelligent and likable. When it comes to the general election I think these qualities determine the winner more often than not. With Carson we also have a candidate that comes off as very genuine and that is quite refreshing. I wouldn't vote for him but I believe I would enjoy his company very much and that we would get along quite well.
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