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Ted Cruz Isn’t Trump Voters’ Second Choice, Part Two
National Review ^ | 10/14/2015 | Henry Olsen

Posted on 10/14/2015 7:38:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

My last post on this subject got a little pushback, so I decided to look at some other data points to see if Trump voters are likely to switch to Ted Cruz if they start to see their American Idol as more of a political apprentice. So far, these data confirm the initial thought: Cruz will pick up his share of Trump supporters, but nowhere near the majority.

Three recent national polls asked respondents who their second choice is. Two helpfully provided tabulations for the percentage of each second choice by the person’s first choice (i.e., the percent of Trump backers who choose Cruz, Carson, etc. as their second choice). In each poll, PPP and USAT/Suffolk, only thirteen percent of Trump backers chose Cruz as their second choice.

The FOX national poll also asked the first/second choice question, but did not provide direct tabs of the share of Trump backers who chose Cruz, et al, as their second choice. It did, however, do the next best thing: it gave the entire GOP race standings if Trump were out. Trump polled 26 percent in the overall standings and Cruz polled 8 percent. Without Trump, Cruz rose to 11 percent, a three point gain. Three divided by 26 is about 11 1/2 percent, nearly identical to the thirteen percent from the other two polls.

This might seem to be too low given that Cruz is actively courting Trump and his backers. But the PPP poll suggests that effort is not yet paying off. Cruz’s name ID among Trump backers is only 47 percent positive, 37 percent negative. He still has a lot of selling to do before Trumpets think “Ted Cruz” when their thoughts stray from His Hairness.

Now, there are plenty of scenarios in which I can imagine Cruz will do well with current Trump supporters. If Cruz breaks through in Iowa and Bush recovers to win New Hampshire, for example, he could pick up loads of Trump supporters in an ensuing one-on-one. Or if Ben Carson, who currently is the Trump backers’ favorite second choice, fades, perhaps the junior Senator from Texas will gain those voters love.

But right now none of those things are clearly in the offing. If The Donald were to drop out tomorrow, all the data show Ted Cruz would not gain even a plurality of Trump backers’ votes.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; cruz; gope; gopefearscruz; gopeisnotyourfriend; gopepropaganda; tcruz; tedcruz; trump; wishfulthinking
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1 posted on 10/14/2015 7:38:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If NR says so then it must be true.../s


2 posted on 10/14/2015 7:40:59 AM PDT by BreezyDog
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To: SeekAndFind
Who is Henry Olsen; what is National Review; and why should I give a flying flip about what either of them say?
3 posted on 10/14/2015 7:42:05 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Biology is biology. Everything else is imagination.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think he is for a lot of folks like me. Trump’s VP. I think a little Trump needs to rub off on Cruz in how to cut through political B.S. and visa versa, Trump getting a deeper dedication in federal constitutional limits, so Cruz can walk into the Presidency after Trump as long as Trump’s Presidency is good to great.


4 posted on 10/14/2015 7:42:06 AM PDT by Jim W N
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To: SeekAndFind

Polls are meaningless to me, especially the majority of them that are push polls. Besides, whatever the reality is... it is dynamic, not static. The way things eventually fall out must be very dependent on events still to occur, how Trump/Carsen handle themselves, and how Cruz handles himself, at a minimum.


5 posted on 10/14/2015 7:43:24 AM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is libertye)
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To: SeekAndFind
The NR is in the tank for the GOPe, that's why they insult BOTH Trump and Cruz.

Notice their wet dream of jeb pulling out New Hampshire...really???

6 posted on 10/14/2015 7:43:59 AM PDT by Pietro
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To: SeekAndFind

Trump is first, Cruz is my second.


7 posted on 10/14/2015 7:44:02 AM PDT by DesertRhino ("I want those feeble minded asses overthrown,,,")
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this is both hypothetical and moot.

Hypothetical because most voters, despite what they now think, really don’t know what they would do should Trump no longer be in the race.

Moot because Trump isn’t going anywhere anyway (except up).


8 posted on 10/14/2015 7:45:10 AM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: SeekAndFind

A Senator first? No way.


9 posted on 10/14/2015 7:45:13 AM PDT by onedoug
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To: DesertRhino
"Trump is first, Cruz is my second."

I would reverse that order but we do seem pretty much on the same page.

10 posted on 10/14/2015 7:45:51 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: SeekAndFind

Too early. Cruz’s ground game is working delegates, not brand. He has the money and time to work brand/recognition.

My two cents, anyway.


11 posted on 10/14/2015 7:45:56 AM PDT by LoneStar42 ('The future ain't what it used to be.' Thanks, Yogi.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Cruz must be crushed before he climbs more in the polls” MSM and GOPe. By the way I am first a Trump supporter but happy to back anyone these clowns put down in the Republican Race. Cram it clowns!


12 posted on 10/14/2015 7:48:05 AM PDT by stocksthatgoup (When the MSM and Elites want your opinion they will give it to you.)
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To: SeekAndFind

These freaking pundits, with all their supposed smarts & polls & charts & facts haven’t been right about anything in a long time.


13 posted on 10/14/2015 7:52:38 AM PDT by SteveinSATX (C'mon Cruz, Trump or Carson ...baby needs a new pair of shoes!)
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To: circlecity

Ditto


14 posted on 10/14/2015 7:54:38 AM PDT by TangoLimaSierra (To win the country back, we need to be as mean as the libs say we are.)
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To: SeekAndFind
What difference would it make?
All but one snort Koch.

If Trumps not there all bets are off as to what would happen. If he isn't, it won't be pretty for the GOP or the country.

15 posted on 10/14/2015 7:55:26 AM PDT by lewislynn (Meghan Kelley...#sand--Rosie, the Don was right-- Hillary, lipstick on a pig)
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To: MichaelCorleone

After Trump the rest look so anemic its almost a stay home. I guess Cruz would be our second choice.


16 posted on 10/14/2015 7:56:01 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: circlecity

Can someone explain the appeal of Carson. I get it that he is an outsider, an intelligent and likable guy but other than that what makes Carsons’ voters think his is presidential?


17 posted on 10/14/2015 7:58:49 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: jpsb

I completely agree...what substance does Carson have? Like you said...he is a very likable guy, but what else does he have?


18 posted on 10/14/2015 8:00:38 AM PDT by halo66
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To: SeekAndFind

National Rinoview has jumped the shark.


19 posted on 10/14/2015 8:01:07 AM PDT by McGruff (Trump-Cruz 2016. Make America Great Again.)
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To: jpsb
"Can someone explain the appeal of Carson. I get it that he is an outsider, an intelligent and likable guy but other than that what makes Carsons’ voters think his is presidential?"

Never underestimate the power of coming off as intelligent and likable. When it comes to the general election I think these qualities determine the winner more often than not. With Carson we also have a candidate that comes off as very genuine and that is quite refreshing. I wouldn't vote for him but I believe I would enjoy his company very much and that we would get along quite well.

20 posted on 10/14/2015 8:03:30 AM PDT by circlecity
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