Posted on 10/12/2015 5:44:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A reader writes, “Everyone says Donald Trump can’t win. Exactly why not?”
David Leonhardt, editor for The Upshot, considers the question:
Can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? Sure, it’s within the realm of plausibility; he’s now been leading the polls for months, after all. But it seems highly unlikely because it would violate just about every historical pattern of presidential races.
No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination — and perhaps no candidate in American history — while being opposed by the party’s elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.
Elite support matters because they have the ability to shape public opinion through endorsements, public criticism and other means. Many voters don’t follow campaigns very closely. They don’t dig through position papers or watch hours upon hours of debates. They’re influenced by what they hear.
In every recent Republican presidential campaign, a couple of contenders — often with resumes atypical of a serious candidate — have shot to the top of the early polls, only to fade as they face scrutiny and criticism. What’s fascinating about Mr. Trump is that he has, if anything, endured harsher criticism, and yet he has also remained atop the polls for longer.
Perhaps Republican primary voters have grown so fed up with the country and their party that they’re willing to dismiss the collective opinion of Republican elites (which now seems to favor Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush). But it really would be unprecedented for the party to nominate someone like Mr. Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Before you dig yourself a deeper hole, let me tell you something... You and I are supporting the same candidate in the primary: Sen. Cruz. I support him, but I do not oppose Donald Trump. Attacking Trump with ludicrous claims as you are is making you look bitter and foolish, and you’re not making our man look good in the process.
I saw you also wrote that Mr. Creosote Chrispy Crème from New Jersey would “win” is also equally ludicrous given that he is utterly toxic with the base and polling at about 0%.
If you’re a Conservative as you claim to be, stop making such silly comments please. Donald Trump is not our enemy.
There was never a black president until there was.
The base wants some one with balls, who won’t lie to them, trump is on top because he’s admittedly unfiltered and not purchasable. So is carson. Mit was just too nice if he had 1/10 of trumps a**holes ness he would have won. If he had dress down Crowley likely he would have won. The electorate wants a strong leader to fix the cluster F**K that is DC.
Democrats will vote for anything and everybody who will give them something that someone else earned
It takes at least average intelligence to be a Republican....thus the problem.
Actually, Barry Goldwater is an even better example. After Rockefeller's Country Club wing failed to stop Goldwater at the convention, they sat on their hands (and wallets) for the balance of the campaign -- bad-mouthing their party's candidate at every opportunity.
Not true that was 3 months ago. His numbers in the early primaries have gone positive.
” No, he will not be president. “
That means either Hillary , Biden or Sanders WILL . Wonderful ...
I would vote for Cruz in a heartbeat. Glad you love Cruz. But please drop the pseudo intellectual posturing and deal with real facts. If, as you postulate, Trump is politically DOA because the Party Elite will not support him, then so is Cruz.
They hate Trump as an outsider but they think they can outlast him. They hate Cruz because he is an apostate, one of them, who choose to side with the "infidels" against them.
But buck up little Mr. The GOPe hated and feared Reagan so much they tried to run a Liberal GOPe drone as a third party independent spoiler against him in 1979. Reagan demolished them and the Democrats.
"Tyranny like Hell is not easily conquered"
Yep, Donald is breaking all the rules. Donald looks a lot like America’s answer, short of shooting war (which would be harder to win today than it would have been during the Civil War) to a renegade administration that has broken all the rules and a feckless Congress that won’t or can’t do anything about it.
I know who you support.
You’re misreading my retort RE Christy.
Donnie-boy is still the same metro-fuzzy socialist that he was a few years ago.
Everything he says shows it.
He has no respect for the constitution. He’ll do as he damn pleases cuz “he knows he’s right” and “its for the good of the country.”
He’s a standard megalomaniac.
What Good Can a Handgun Do Against an Army.....?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2312894/posts
To the GOPe elites:
Remember 2006, you sobs.
Wake up.
Cruz’ negatives are so low they’re almost invisible.
Trump’s are growing like a forest fire.
.
Ah but he didn't. Clinton had those until 0 started winning. Then the Democrat Party Elite started jumping ship one by one.
Same will be true of the GOPE. Political operatives make their living finding the winning parade and putting themselves at the head of it. Look what happened to the Tea Party movement. As soon as they started demonstrating power the GOPe fell all over themselves to co-opt and corrupt it.
Who are you talking about, bath-house barry the known pitcher, not catcher who was part of Rev Wrights (or leftist) downlow club who was tasked to marry some in inhospitable broad named Michelle? The coke runner for the pedophile faggot davis? just asking
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
SILENT NO LONGER!!
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!
TRUMP RUMP TRUMP
LOUDER AND LOUDER!
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
AMERICA HAS A CHANCE TO SURVIVE ALL EVIL FORCES!!
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
PRAISE THE LORD, OUR GOD IN HEAVEN AMEN!
Thank you from a FRiend....
Trump: I’m never dropping out!!!
Does this answer your question? Where are the other candidates bills? Where are the other candidates leading in the polls since June? Where are the other candidates money coming from? HUMMM? Just asking.....NOT one of them as much as TRUMP!!!
You don’t really think screaming bile at anyone who doesn’t worship Cruz as you do, is an effective debate tactics do you?
The only two who have dropped out were on the side of the illegal aliens and their employers.
At least Trump is on the side of the citizens.
You know who Trump is starting to remind me of?
Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes and the third leg of the triple crown. Those that know, know what I’m talking about.
.
Just wishin and hopein....
Over 60% today.
.
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