Posted on 10/12/2015 5:44:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A reader writes, “Everyone says Donald Trump can’t win. Exactly why not?”
David Leonhardt, editor for The Upshot, considers the question:
Can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? Sure, it’s within the realm of plausibility; he’s now been leading the polls for months, after all. But it seems highly unlikely because it would violate just about every historical pattern of presidential races.
No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination — and perhaps no candidate in American history — while being opposed by the party’s elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.
Elite support matters because they have the ability to shape public opinion through endorsements, public criticism and other means. Many voters don’t follow campaigns very closely. They don’t dig through position papers or watch hours upon hours of debates. They’re influenced by what they hear.
In every recent Republican presidential campaign, a couple of contenders — often with resumes atypical of a serious candidate — have shot to the top of the early polls, only to fade as they face scrutiny and criticism. What’s fascinating about Mr. Trump is that he has, if anything, endured harsher criticism, and yet he has also remained atop the polls for longer.
Perhaps Republican primary voters have grown so fed up with the country and their party that they’re willing to dismiss the collective opinion of Republican elites (which now seems to favor Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush). But it really would be unprecedented for the party to nominate someone like Mr. Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
rino kabuki wet dream propaganda.
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Yes!
Absolutely.
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Actually it is the exact opposite this time. With 60% of Republicans saying they are angry with the GOP leadership, "elite support" this year is the kiss of death.
Trump continues to lead with every subgroup of the GOP electorate . . . concerned about electability . . . a candidate who’s sufficiently conservative . . . Tea Party voters . . . non-Tea Party voters . . . Evangelicals . . . non-Evangelicals . . . moderates . . . ‘somewhat conservative’ voters . . . ‘very conservative’ ones . . . men . . . women . . . young voters and . . . seniors.
Trump has led for longer and with far more attention than the typical flash in the pan summer fling. Also. this is not the Paul loyalists holding a libertarian up while no one is paying attention; this is serious and broad-based support. Trump can win. I’m not at all convinced that he will win, but it is a realistic possibility.
No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination — and perhaps no candidate in American history — while being opposed by the party’s elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.
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The name Ronald Reagan mean any thing to you?
Does he want to?
It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOPe found a way to throw the election if Trump did manage to get the nomination.
The more they push this theme the more likely they are to face a Trump Presidency.
People hate The Ministry Of Propaganda and the GOP “Leadership”.
The Joyful Tippy-toes Disrupter Tortoise and his mini-me Rubberio are amnesty pimps and people know it.
They don’t want amnesty pimps.
If a freeloading, Kenyan Marxist can win the U.S. presidency, I don’t see why a very successful AMERICAN businessman can’t win it also.
Once again the “Establishment” gets it exactly wrong. In 2008 and 2012 the Establishment candidate who eventually won started with solid support in the 20-30% range and never dipped below 10%. What would be unprecedented would be for a candidate polling in single digits to come back and win the nomination.
RINO elites add up to only a few actual votes as a percentage. When they install their designated loser (as they did in 2008 and 2012), where half or more of the actual base party VOTERS oppose the nominee, that’s how you end up with Zero. The base actively WANTS Trump, and that’s how he wins.
Trump will not get the nomination.
Over 60% say that they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances.
This is a case of libs not understanding why things happen when the real world collides with their fantasy alternate world.
They can’t understand how a black man can be a conservative or why a hispanic woman loves Trump or why regular everyday working joes support a billionaire for president.
And frankly, who gives a flying farthing what they think.
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>> “The base actively WANTS Trump, and that’s how he wins” <<
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That is utter and complete fantasy.
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I don’t remember another race where 2/3 of a party’s voters say their own party elites have “betrayed” them. Normal rules don’t apply. If the GOPe pulls crap to deny the voters their choice they will go the way of the Whigs.
Right, and the next trick....watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat. There is nowhere to go when the knees shake and fear overcomes. The fear of losing it all must be increasing daily.
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