Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

What Facebook “Likes” Reveal About Your GOP Candidate’s Chances
Townhall.com ^ | October 6, 2015 | Carl Jackson

Posted on 10/06/2015 8:38:05 AM PDT by Kaslin

After left-wing media went crazy over Dr. Ben Carson's comments about whether or not he'd vote for a Muslim president a few weeks ago, and he gained 100,000 new Facebook "Likes" as a result, I decided to begin tracking how many new Facebook followers each of the GOP candidates were attracting weekly. What I found may surprise you.

Candidates perceived as part of the "establishment," such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki had surprisingly few followers considering their name recognition and experience. My initial research revealed Jeb Bush had the most followers amongst the establishment candidates -right at 280,10 at that time. Comparatively, Dr. Carson, was leading the pack among the "outsiders." He had 3,821,488.

However, all of those considered outsiders, including Trump, Carson, Cruz and Fiorina, as well as those considered a bridge between the outsiders and the establishment, like Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Huckabee, Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum, were faring better on Facebook and Twitter than their establishment counterparts. Santorum had the lowest number of Facebook Likes, at 265, 810 followers - not far off from Jeb Bush. If presidential candidates were decided exclusively based upon grassroots support, without major donors to prop up establishment candidates, they'd be in trouble. Why is this important?

Essentially, Facebook Likes have replaced the political bumper sticker in America, and you don't even have to worry about getting your car scratched by a liberal! In some cases, I've seen national polling coincide with a candidate’s social media status. A presidential candidate that does not utilize social media in today's culture is like a fish out of water - dead.

Assuming most to all of their likes are legitimate, the amount of followers each candidate gains speaks to the energy, relatability, longevity and electability of their campaigns - at least at a grassroots level. Social media doesn't guarantee a victory for a politician, but it does give him or her a fighting chance. Particularly when it comes to "establishment" candidates that tend to be better funded by big donor money.

In 2008 President Obama used the power of social media to help organize and solidify his ground game against John McCain. When he defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 he continued his success by once again exposing how the GOP took social media for granted. Today however, more and more GOP candidates are using the power and influence of social media to establish their brand without breaking the bank.

Recall in 2012, over four million registered Republican voters didn't even bother showing up for Romney. Considering the amount of social media followers the establishment candidates have, or lack thereof, one can assume the base may not show up for an "establishment" candidate despite the downward trajectory of America. If the grassroots doesn't get an acceptable candidate, we could potentially see a lower turnout from the GOP base than we saw in 2012.

In the past, name recognition and the ability to pay for ads was synonymous with a candidate's ability to acquire new voters. Social media has leveled the playing field to a point where that's not necessarily the case any longer. Thanks to social media, money alone is no longer a pathway to victory in presidential politics. Taking into account both Trump and Huckabee had television careers prior to their bid for the presidency, here are the Facebook numbers as of Oct. 5, 2015:

1)Ben Carson - 4,146,562

2)Donald Trump - 3, 934, 219

3) Rand Paul - 2,066,993

4) Mike Huckabee -1,847,642

5)Ted Cruz - 1,482, 724

6) Marco Rubio - 1,042,289

7) Carly Fiorina - 478,862

8) Bobby Jindal - 283,983

9) Jeb Bush - 283,883

10) Rick Santorum - 265,414

11) Chris Christie - 187,477

12) John Kasich - 146,493

13) Lindsey Graham - 136,607

14) George Pataki - 19,099

Based on these numbers, I think it's safe to say many pollsters in the early stages of the GOP primary race are just as intent on shaping the news as they are reporting the real numbers on the ground. However, in the end, I'm confident the grassroots will have their say.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; campaigns; facebook; socialmedia
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-27 last
To: Kaslin

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3337624/posts

Carson’s “likes” are a hoax.


21 posted on 10/06/2015 11:17:18 AM PDT by proust (If Obama was accused of being a Christian, would there be enough evidence to convict him?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: publius911

Eye fo getted bout da po edyookatshun of 2dae’s youf. Das guud u re mines me bout dat. in da were’ds ov mi litter airy hero, Mark Twain, he sed, “It’s a poor man who can only spell a word one way.” Soe glad, eye not be pour.


22 posted on 10/06/2015 11:52:12 AM PDT by Lake Living
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: bgill

“Truth is that the majority of “likes” are bought and paid for.”

How exactly does that work?


23 posted on 10/06/2015 12:32:40 PM PDT by truth_seeker (come with the outlws.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: truth_seeker

Easy. Your company or campaign manager has employees to make countless accounts to send tweets, makes comments and “likes” your product. You don’t believe all those product reviews on Amazon are real customers, do you? I’m sure there is software that will do it for them.


24 posted on 10/06/2015 2:38:57 PM PDT by bgill ( CDC site, "we still do not know exactly how people are infected with Ebola")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: truth_seeker
“Truth is that the majority of “likes” are bought and paid for.”
How exactly does that work?

They rent a big room wit a few dozen computers, and get a bunch of brainless barely literate twits, who just dial targets over and over all day supporting whatever the loser who is paying them directs.

With major league losers like Obama and Cankle, the expense comes out of taxpayer money. Yours and mine!

Happens all the time!

25 posted on 10/06/2015 4:36:41 PM PDT by publius911 (Pissed?? You have NO idea!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: bgill

My daughter is a freelance writer/editor, and for a while there she had a job writing fake Amazon reviews. I was shocked when she told me how that worked, and now I don’t really trust any reviews. I think one way to spot the fake ones is if they have no typos and are grammatically perfect.


26 posted on 10/06/2015 7:24:33 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Be Breitbart, baby. LIFB.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Re: “Recall in 2012, over four million registered Republican voters didn't even bother showing up for Romney.”

Sorry, that's not correct.

4.5 million white voters stayed home, and most of them voted for Obama in 2008.

In 2012, Obama lost 5.5 million white voters compared to 2008.

In 2012, Romney got 1 million more white votes than McCain got in 2008.

I believe I am the only person in the world who has actually performed the basic math on this political fallacy.

However, in 2016, I believe millions of Republicans may actually stay home.

The GOP leadership has been lying to and betraying Conservatives since Teddy Roosevelt became president in 1901.

I've been voting Republican for almost 50 years, and, frankly, I'm done with these guys.

27 posted on 10/06/2015 11:08:57 PM PDT by zeestephen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-27 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson