[Red Badger]

TS Erika Ping!.................

[archy]

Tropical Storm ERIKA

Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika

[John S Mosby]

Headed to Bermuda. Check the models. Hopefully not continuing into NC and VA. They don’t need it.

[citizen]

I look for the projected path to shift further into the Atlantic in the coming forecasts.
Joe says it still may amount to something a bit later.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 5h5 hours ago
Should be a big convection collapse next six hours in Erica. If it survives up then look out great pattern for intensification on weekend

[867V309]

Great! It's time for the weather-babe with a windbreaker to stand beside the railing on Cocoa Beach. They tie a ribbon to the railing so we can tell it's a hurricane.

Hurry, buy your generators. Fear sells.

[Chasaway]

Hey, there!

I may be a little slow here, but whatever happened to the NautiNurse hurricane ping list?

I live on N. Padre Island and used to get all kinds of updates from him/her.

I haven’t seen anything in a long while from NautiNurse.

Did they quit running a list? Or has the activity been that slow?

Wondering......

[HotHunt]

Looks like the rain won't let up here in north central Florida anytime soon. It's been a really wet summer. We had a hellacious two hour thunderstorm last evening with lots of close lightening strikes and got 3.5 inches of rain out of it.

Our hay is ready to cut but it is too wet right now. Fields are saturated with water and soggy, even in this sandy soil. If this tropical storm heads our way, we will lose our hay. It's ready to mow but we can't buy a dry day with some sun to dry it out. The sun comes out and is hot and humid in the mornings but usually rains in the afternoons.

Living on a narrow peninsula, like Florida, with water on both sides of us, this is pretty normal, I guess.

[woollyone]

Check out passageweather.com

The latest forecast has this hugging the eastern Florida coast as a hurricane all the way into Georgia

[Qiviut]

My favorite meteorologist as of 5 hours ago (DT of wxrisk.com). By the way, he calls it like he sees it without regard to “meteorological correctness” plus his punctuation & spelling aren’t perfect, but he’s very often correct with his forecasts:

UPDATE ON ERIKA- It is now OBVIOUS to all that NHC track is going to BUST in a big way. If ERIKA is really doing 280 degrees or WNW she will pass OVER PR = Puerto Rico— and NOT north of it. This has huge implication down the road

FIRST as I said below and in the newsletter.. weak tropical cyclones ALWAYS stay much more west then Models forecast. Because they are not well developed they follow the low level winds ( 850-700mb) level and NOT the Jet stream.

The 1st image shows the ACTUAL track. if ERIKA is doing 280 degrees/ wnw it is OBVIOUS that she will hit PR and then pass very close to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba— helping to keep erika weak.

this means ANY turn to the North is delayed. Indeed this is exactly what the 0z thursday ECMWF showed... a weak or near death system. The 0z GFS HWRF CAN all have erika passing well N of PR and into an ideal development area in and around the Bahamas....then it turns erika North to the se coast as a significant Hurricane

That scenario increasingly looks like bullshit

we can see this shift west towards FL and the delayed turn on the 6z Hurricane models

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.909477782432814/909477705766155/?type=1&theater

[Red Badger]

000 WTNT45 KNHC 281452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of 40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The central pressure based on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb. Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion is a somewhat more confident 285/16. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of Erika. The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through 96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the previous track. Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This, combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low confidence. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.7N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

[GOYAKLA]

Try this link; http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?units=english&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.stm=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&extremes=0&hurrevac=0&sst=0&livesurge=0&femaflood=0&tsunami=0&seismicrisk=0&fault=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0

*****
You can also remove Satellite check for rain only.

[Red Badger]