My favorite meteorologist as of 5 hours ago (DT of wxrisk.com). By the way, he calls it like he sees it without regard to “meteorological correctness” plus his punctuation & spelling aren’t perfect, but he’s very often correct with his forecasts:
UPDATE ON ERIKA- It is now OBVIOUS to all that NHC track is going to BUST in a big way. If ERIKA is really doing 280 degrees or WNW she will pass OVER PR = Puerto Rico— and NOT north of it. This has huge implication down the road
FIRST as I said below and in the newsletter.. weak tropical cyclones ALWAYS stay much more west then Models forecast. Because they are not well developed they follow the low level winds ( 850-700mb) level and NOT the Jet stream.
The 1st image shows the ACTUAL track. if ERIKA is doing 280 degrees/ wnw it is OBVIOUS that she will hit PR and then pass very close to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba— helping to keep erika weak.
this means ANY turn to the North is delayed. Indeed this is exactly what the 0z thursday ECMWF showed... a weak or near death system. The 0z GFS HWRF CAN all have erika passing well N of PR and into an ideal development area in and around the Bahamas....then it turns erika North to the se coast as a significant Hurricane
That scenario increasingly looks like bullshit
we can see this shift west towards FL and the delayed turn on the 6z Hurricane models
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.909477782432814/909477705766155/?type=1&theater
My mother-in-law lives in Melbourne, right smack in the middle of the track for Tuesday, and my other in-laws live in Hilliard north of Jax by the Georgia line also in its proposed track. Of course things can change, and if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, watch out!...............