Tropical Storm ERIKA

www.nhc.noaa.gov ^ | 08/27/2015 | Staff

[Red Badger]

000 WTNT85 KNHC 271733 TCVAT5

ERIKA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

.TROPICAL STORM ERIKA

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-012-013-VIZ001-002- 272100- /O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...

[al baby]

This one?

[al baby]

How about a courtesy ping and ask her

[woollyone]

Check out passageweather.com

The latest forecast has this hugging the eastern Florida coast as a hurricane all the way into Georgia

[deport]

whatever happened to the NautiNurse hurricane ping list

*************

NautiNurse hasn’t posted since July 10, 2015. Don’t know why.

[Qiviut]

My favorite meteorologist as of 5 hours ago (DT of wxrisk.com). By the way, he calls it like he sees it without regard to “meteorological correctness” plus his punctuation & spelling aren’t perfect, but he’s very often correct with his forecasts:

UPDATE ON ERIKA- It is now OBVIOUS to all that NHC track is going to BUST in a big way. If ERIKA is really doing 280 degrees or WNW she will pass OVER PR = Puerto Rico— and NOT north of it. This has huge implication down the road

FIRST as I said below and in the newsletter.. weak tropical cyclones ALWAYS stay much more west then Models forecast. Because they are not well developed they follow the low level winds ( 850-700mb) level and NOT the Jet stream.

The 1st image shows the ACTUAL track. if ERIKA is doing 280 degrees/ wnw it is OBVIOUS that she will hit PR and then pass very close to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba— helping to keep erika weak.

this means ANY turn to the North is delayed. Indeed this is exactly what the 0z thursday ECMWF showed... a weak or near death system. The 0z GFS HWRF CAN all have erika passing well N of PR and into an ideal development area in and around the Bahamas....then it turns erika North to the se coast as a significant Hurricane

That scenario increasingly looks like bullshit

we can see this shift west towards FL and the delayed turn on the 6z Hurricane models

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.909477782432814/909477705766155/?type=1&theater

[Red Badger]

[Red Badger]

My mother-in-law lives in Melbourne, right smack in the middle of the track for Tuesday, and my other in-laws live in Hilliard north of Jax by the Georgia line also in its proposed track. Of course things can change, and if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, watch out!...............

[Red Badger]

NautiNurse hasn’t posted since July 10, 2015. Don’t know why.

How does one find this out?.....................

[Red Badger]

It may be up to 3 feet of water!...................

[Qiviut]

Hope they all come through it ok if it ends up in their neighborhood.

[Red Badger]

The MIL lives just a couple of miles from the beach and behind them is swampland. It floods the street by their house after heavy rains, much less a hurricane. The ones in North FL live 30 miles inland.....................

[deport]

On the comments page, SEARCH Function,, upper right side of the comment section
insert the name, then select user in the dropdown, then select search......

That should bring up the following page;

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:nautinurse/index?brevity=full;tab=comments

[Red Badger]

Thanks! .....never used that before!........

[Red Badger]

Blue for boy’s names, pink for girls?........

[Blue Highway]

In the meantime, Cristie will be hugging Krispy Kreme’s by the dozen!

[Blue Highway]

ping her.

[AppyPappy]

Not since the Ashley Madison story broke.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Re the Marlins Stadium...

We have retired relatives down in FL and they were able to get tickets this week to the Marlins games vs the Pirates. They were stunned at the lack of ticket sales (and how many Bucco fans were there). They posted on FB how beautiful the Stadium is. We watch every game here on TV and it was pretty sweet to see relatives on air (w/their Jolly Rogers).

I know waaaay off topic...but just wanted to share how nice the facility there is.

[Red Badger]

000 WTNT45 KNHC 281452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of 40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The central pressure based on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb. Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion is a somewhat more confident 285/16. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of Erika. The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through 96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the previous track. Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This, combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low confidence. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.7N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

[NautiNurse]

Watching and waiting to see whether the tall mountains of Hispaniola tear Erika apart. Other than that, I’m nestled inside the current NHC 5-day “cone of death.”