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Nate Silver flops again.
1 posted on 05/08/2015 11:42:01 AM PDT by jimbo123
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To: jimbo123

Why inform a pollster what you intend to do, if it is contrary to what the media corporation says they want you to do?


2 posted on 05/08/2015 11:43:38 AM PDT by research99
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To: jimbo123

The “polls” didn’t fail. They said EXACTLY what the pollsters manipulated them to say.

In the Modern Era, Media Polling is now designed to DRIVE the opinion of the Low-Info Voter to politically-approved Leftists, not to measure opinion.

Funny that the British BETTING POOLS got it completely correct, but the leftist-leaning Media polls were wildly off, isn’t it?


3 posted on 05/08/2015 11:47:18 AM PDT by tcrlaf (They told me it could never happen in America. And then it did....)
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To: jimbo123
Sound like valid points to me:

"Voters are becoming harder to contact, especially on landline telephones. Online polls have become commonplace, but some eschew probability sampling, historically the bedrock of polling methodology. And in the U.S., some pollsters have been caught withholding results when they differ from other surveys, “herding” toward a false consensus about a race instead of behaving independently."

5 posted on 05/08/2015 11:56:05 AM PDT by ConservingFreedom (A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.)
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To: jimbo123
Nate Silver: Polls are failing us

Yeah, that happens when your polls start with an agenda.

7 posted on 05/08/2015 11:58:53 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: jimbo123

Let’s see, the NEO-STALINIST Media Megalopoly which whet its appetite on See It Now March 9, 1954 and Mark Feldt-Howard Hughes $100k, sees its role as MAKING rather than reporting “news”, and the professional eunuchs complain about lost jewelry.


8 posted on 05/08/2015 12:01:18 PM PDT by CharlesOConnell (CharlesOConnell)
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To: jimbo123; All
Nate Silver: Polls are failing us

Ya think, skippy? That ain't all that's failing us, try every major public and private institution in the U.S.!
9 posted on 05/08/2015 12:02:47 PM PDT by notdownwidems (Washington DC has become the enemy of free people everywhere)
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To: jimbo123

Nate Silver is an idiot shilling for the hussein regime. His recent article about sports statistics in the ESPN magazine was a bunch of pin-headed nonsense. He knows nothing about facts and reality.


10 posted on 05/08/2015 12:04:03 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: jimbo123
Shortly after midnight, he was forecasting 272 seats for Conservatives and 271 for Labour.

And yet in the US, he's viewed as an Oracle who can predict the US elections several months out with 90%+ certainty.

11 posted on 05/08/2015 12:04:13 PM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: jimbo123

Silver is no longer the gold standard of polls?


12 posted on 05/08/2015 12:14:52 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Doctrine doesn't change. The trick is to find a way around it.)
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To: jimbo123

While I am certain Nate Silver is a sharp guy, his Obama prognostication in 2008 and 12 seem to be the outliers in his success rate. I have no idea how he got those SO right when he can’t seem to get close to accurate in other areas. In 2008 I figured he just used inside data to get his numbers. However in 2012 he picked the states exactly right. He definitely has some model that gets these electoral votes correct.


13 posted on 05/08/2015 12:20:44 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: jimbo123

Oh no! Does this mean we may have to wait until actual voters have spoken to determine winners and losers?


14 posted on 05/08/2015 12:22:07 PM PDT by Spartan79 (I view great cities as pestilential to the morals, the health, and the liberties of man. Jefferson)
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To: jimbo123

The one thing Silver fails to factor in.. is his own liberal bias.

He is usually good at predicting liberal wins, but it’s becoming more and more obvious he is horrible at predicting conservative ones.


15 posted on 05/08/2015 12:23:23 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: jimbo123

More like wishful thinking on the part of a biased pollster....


17 posted on 05/08/2015 12:25:06 PM PDT by Ben Mugged (The number one enemy of liberalism is reality.)
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To: jimbo123

Polls are failing us? What have those pesky polls done now?


19 posted on 05/08/2015 12:38:31 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: jimbo123

He even got the Germany versus Brazil World Cup wrong.

Not a soccer fan, but it looks like the data is showing him to be just another prognosticator.


21 posted on 05/08/2015 12:48:18 PM PDT by bajabaja (Too ugly to be scanned at the airports.)
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To: jimbo123

Polling today is being skewed primarily by the most concentrated and accessible contacts which is made worse by growing non participation in polling. Households increasingly don’t pick up the phone when it is from an unknown or unsolicited source. The media also knowing the power of polls to create impressions doesn’t always have an interest in trying to really capture the sentiment of voters but instead make some voters feel like they are so outnumbered that it’s not any use for them to vote. Its massive implementation of peer pressure. A good example of how bad polling can be is the 2014 MD governor’s race where only one pollster got it right with one other pollster within the margin of error.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/maryland_governor_race.html


22 posted on 05/08/2015 1:07:44 PM PDT by Maelstorm (America wasn't founded with the battle cry give me Liberty or cut me a government check!".)
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To: jimbo123

Polls are much like “climate change” models. GIGO.


29 posted on 05/08/2015 2:05:46 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: jimbo123

In today’s world Polling has indeed become tougher.
Polling people with Cell phones are probably not going well as they do not want to tie up the phone doing this, I know I don’t.

So the people they poll that are still using land line phones tend to be older and give the pollsters very skewed results.


30 posted on 05/08/2015 2:10:04 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: jimbo123
Polls are failing us

It could be that the polsters try to project desired results to get desired results.

It could also be that the 'pollees' are so tired of slanted polling results that they are untruthful when responding to said polls.
31 posted on 05/08/2015 2:30:21 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: jimbo123
Blah blah blah...He was right once... and not since.

Time to retire Nate.

36 posted on 05/08/2015 4:32:46 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
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