Walker Has (Sorta) Broken Through In Iowa, And He Has Room To Grow

FiveThirtyEight.com ^ | Apr 20, 2015 | Harry Enten

[jjotto]

It’s time to acknowledge a milestone in the 2016 GOP primary. No, it’s not that Jeb Bush has broken his paleo diet. Rather, it’s that the leader in the Iowa polls is no longer the weakest frontrunner in caucus history!

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is now polling ahead of where Mitt Romney was at this point in the 2012 cycle. Walker is up to 18.4 percent in an average of Iowa polls conducted in 2015; Romney was at 18 percent in surveys conducted through the first half of 2011. Looking at just the last five surveys, Walker is now up to 21.8 percent. That puts Walker in the company of past early Iowa leaders, such as Dick Gephardt in 2004 campaign and Rudy Giuliani in 2008.

Of course, neither Gephardt nor Giuliani won Iowa, and there’s still reason for caution. Throwing Walker’s polling average (18.4 percent) into a logit model with past early leaders indicates that Walker has only a 4 percent chance of winning the caucus. Realistically, his chances are almost certainly higher than that, yet none of the four Iowa caucus survey leaders polling at less than 30 percent at this point have gone on to win the caucus.

Unlike those eventual losers, however, Walker isn’t well known. In the latest live interview poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, 36 percent of Iowa caucusgoers could not form an opinion of Walker. Only 15 percent of Democrats couldn’t form an opinion of Gephardt in April 2003. Five percent of Republicans (paywall) had no opinion on Giuliani in May 2007. And 3 percent of Democrats (paywall) and 10 percent of Republicans (paywall) had no opinion on John Edwards and Romney, respectively.1 In other words, Edwards, Gephardt, Giuliani and Romney’s leads were more a function of high name recognition than Walker’s, which means Walker has a better chance than those candidates to expand his lead.

Needless to say, a Walker win in Iowa would be a big deal. While it likely wouldn’t eliminate Bush, it would make things very difficult for other conservative candidates to find a foothold going into the more moderate state of New Hampshire. Even though Iowa often doesn’t pick the nominee, no candidate has ever won a party’s nomination after coming in lower than tied for third place in the Iowa caucus.

We’ll have to see if Walker’s polling surge continues. He’s still not in great shape. But he’s clearly in better shape than he was a few months ago.

[jjotto]

Links to poll tracking at original site.

[jjotto]

A different view:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3282016/posts

Poll aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-republican-primary

[dangus]

The other main issue with Walker’s leading numbers being low is that there are so many first-level contenders: Walker, Bush, Huckabee, Rubio, Paul, Christie and Cruz. (Carson is also taking poll points, but he’s *not* a first-level contender, so that doesn’t help this argument.)

What’s impressive is that Walker is *also* leading New Hampshire. It’s previously been a trade-off: Do well in Iowa OR do well in NH. And the NH winner beats the Iowa winner. So that really helps Walker in comparisons with Gephardt.

[jjotto]

Iowa is a caucus state, so polls mean less. Gov. Branstad’s establishment will be backing Walker, and Cruz supporters will be there. Paul may get his 10-20%. Other candidates don’t look too viable from this far out.

[TomGuy]

Iowa may be more of a curse than a blessing.

The Iowa caucuses have not been a great indicator of potential GOP presidential winners. Several incumbents have won Iowa, but few first timers have since the Nixon/Ford years.

[proudpapa]

Walker has been successful in Wisconsin. He’s battle tested. And he’s ready for anything the devil might throw at him.

[jjotto]

Iowa first has definitely outlived its usefulness. The problem is coming up with a consensus replacement. It would help if more people and the MSM were aware that it is strictly a beauty contest with no delegates awarded to a candidate.

[Mariner]

The GOP should adopt Arizona as their first.

Conservative, and it's just gorgeous in February.

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


"THANKS SCOTT WALKER" ... for being ...

FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST / FOR / AGAINST ....

the horrific Foreign Invasion by MILLIONS of Illegal Immigrant from Mexico (et al) ...



Yeah ... isn't it GREAT that Scott Walker isn't like Barrack Hussein Obama ...

... who opposed Gay Marriage before Obama "changed his mind" ...

... who opposed Iranian Nuclear Weapons before Obama "changed his mind" ...

... who opposed Immigration Executive Amnesty before Obama "changed his mind" ...

... who opposed ObamaCare's Taxpayer-Paid Abortion before Obama "changed his mind" ...

... who opposed ObamaCare's FORCED doctors before Obama "changed his mind" ...

















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[napscoordinator]

I think Walker will win Iowa and New Hampshire come in second after Cruz in South Carolina and then take Florida.....after that who knows....haven’t thought that far.

[samtheman]

I agree

[conservativejoy]

Four things that I believe would win the White House:

1. Secure the border with verification and start enforcing current immigration laws.

2. Revoke citizenship for anyone born of illegal parents and end anchor babies for future births.

3. Begin massive deportation starting with those who have committed other crimes.

4. Put illegals on notice that if they ever want to be a U.S. citizen, they need to leave now. If we have to deport them, they will forfeit any path to citizenship.

We need to get serious about this problem that is draining our social programs and ravaging our educational system. I would walk across hot coals to vote for any candidate that would do this.

[OldSmaj]

Walker is up to 18.4 percent in an average of Iowa polls conducted in 2015...

Was the poll conducted before or after he told them he supported ethanol subsidies?

Just sayin'.

Lot of corn farmers in Iowa.

[Lurkinanloomin]

And they elected Jeff Flake after electing McAmnesty repeatedly, no thanks, let’s find someplace sensible.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Everything except #2 is within the ability for any new President within current law.

I agree that the misinterpretation of the 14th Amendement should be corrected, but we will not be revoking citizenships. No future children born to those not “under the jurisdiction” of the U.S. should be granted citizenship after we pass legislation spelling that out.

[conservativejoy]

I wonder if a law could be passed to revoke citizenship of children of illegal immigrants. I know that children of naturalized parents who have their citizenship revoked also lose their citizenship.

If not, their illegal parents would have to decide if they want to take their kids with them when they go home.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Any decent parent would take their kids with them when deported. Of course, any decent parent wouldn’t be an illegal alien in someone else’s country and put there children in that situation.

[dead]

You’re scrapbooking takes away from your message.

[conservativejoy]

God save us. Sometimes I feel like people who exercise common sense are living in a parallel universe to what I see in the news. I could not imagine how much this country would decay in the course of my lifetime. I really miss the America we once were.

[The Toll]

51 million foreigners added to a country of 330 million in the past 8 years? This man will do NOTHING.