Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination

[pinochet]

I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.

In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.

In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.

Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.

[terycarl]

I see the Bush family water bucket carriers are already taking up their positions. Save your guilt trips sweetheart. They aren't going to work.

What a stupid statement.....my favored candidate is Walker....I just can't stand to see people condemned because of their family name....Jeb is not a bad candidate because he is a Bush...choose him or not based on his own merits....I don't like his stance on common core nor immigration but if he is the Republican candidate, I will vote for him....Atilla the Hun would be better that another Democrat....wake up.