Posted on 02/13/2015 12:09:07 PM PST by SoConPubbie
A prominent Republican consultant — who isn't working for any of the 2016 presidential candidates and who has been right more times than I can count — said something that shocked me when we had lunch recently. He said that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had roughly the same odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as former Florida governor Jeb Bush.
Jaw-dropper, right? After all, the conventional wisdom is that Bush, the son and brother of presidents, is the frontrunner to be the Republican standard-bearer, while Cruz, a conservative's conservative, is a factor, sure, but not someone who could actually win the nomination.
How, I asked this guy, could he say such a thing? He explained it this way.
Think of the Republican primary field as a series of lanes. In this race, there are four of them: Establishment, Tea Party, Social Conservative and Libertarian. The four lanes are not of equal size: Establishment is the biggest followed by Tea Party, Social Conservative and then Libertarian. (I could be convinced that Libertarian is slightly larger than Social Conservative, but it's close.)
Obviously the fight for the top spot in the Establishment lane is very crowded, with Bush and possibly Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading at the moment. Ditto the Social Conservative lane with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Rick Santorum all pushing hard there. The Libertarian lane is all Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's but, as I noted above, it's still not that big.
Which leaves the Tea Party lane, which is both relatively large and entirely Cruz's. While Paul looked as though he might try to fight Cruz for supremacy in that lane at one time, it's clear from his recent moves that the Kentucky senator is trying to become a player in a bunch of lanes, including Social Conservative and Establishment.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Cruz may be underrated. A lot of the national polls even exclude him. I think TX is strongly for Jebbie even though the Republican primary voters have no idea why they will vote that way.
Look up Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. You can also look up Reagan's "Eleventh Commandment".
I know some people want to believe that there has always been a civil war and unlasting enmity between the two sides of the Republican Party, but once Reagan was established as the likely nominee in 1980, there wasn't much objection from the "Establishment." Not if you compare it too some of the more divisive elections in our history.
Sure, there were the expected fights over abortion at the convention, and one very liberal candidate (John Anderson) ran a third party campaign, but there weren't walkouts or bitter disputes and the party elite or Establishment fell in line behind Reagan. Anderson got support from liberal Democrats and people who weren't likely to vote for any Republican, not from established GOP bigwigs.
One big reason why there was no party split and little disaffection was that Reagan invited George Bush and James Baker and other Bushites or moderates into his administration. Reagan knew when to fight and when to compromise. He was the acknowledged leader of the conservatives -- there weren't all these factions promoting their own narrow agenda and particular favorites -- and the rest of the party also gave him their support, sometimes grudgingly, sometimes gladly.
If we had the situation we have today, Phil Crane or John Connolly or somebody else would have cozied up to some particular conservative faction and split the movement. Reagan might never have become president. If Scott Walker isn't the one and only love of some faction, it doesn't mean that he's on the same page or in the same lane as Jeb Bush. It could mean that he has the kind of unifying potential that Reagan had. I'm not saying there's an exact comparison -- I'm not saying he'll be the best candidate or win -- I'm just talking issue with some of the logic (or illogic) in the article.
Bookmarked, thanks. Please keep posting this.
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It has long been my contention that the more moderate Republicans would vote for the Conservative over the Democrat, so why not run a Conservative? (what is now called a 'TEA party' candidate).
Cruz is my first choice too but I won’t stay home if Walker is the nominee. Walker has to be on the ticket because I think he connects with midwesterners, and we all know that part of the country is going to decide the election. Cruz/Walker would be an awesome ticket and would be pretty formidable. One thing for sure is that ticket will cause libs to go mad and froth at the mouth at the mere hearing or mentioning of their names.
I would love to see Cruz (brilliant) in the debate against the liar Hillary. Priceless.
I read she has gained a valuable endorsement from a FL “Republican”, not Jebbie, but Michael Schiavo.
Cruz has not been idle about money. Remember, he's really really smart so he knows he has to have money. I read about two months ago he met with such men in New York City. He also,a short while ago, attended a forum put together by the Koch brothers.
Surely, he will run. If he does, after the first debate, he will surge to the top and Hillary will have to take a major size anti-depressant or get completely drunk.
Remember, he wasn't supposed to win the senate seat over establishment Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and he whipped his butt. Dewhurst is a millionaire and had gobs of money for his campaign but that couldn't stop the excellence of Ted Cruz from rising to the top.
I believe Cruz can save this country from destruction. He must be the next President. Keep him in your prayers.
I don’t think a Cruz-Walker ticket could win WI any more than Romney-Ryan-Baldwin did. Oh wait, Baldwin did win.
One of my good friends is the precinct chair in the same precinct as Ross Perot and she told me that he always votes in the democratic primaries.
But, somehow people think Ross Perot is a Republican.
Somebody needs to see if Schiavo is telling the truth or not.
Unless it has been changed, FL requires registration by party. TX does not.
“Prominant Republican Consultant”. That says it all. Republican Consultants don’t have very good track records.
Cruz is from the right wing of freedom. He is the declared enemy of the parties of organized crime; the progs, the commies, the socialists, and left wing liberals everywhere. The old media propaganda arm is prepared to smear him out of politics and they have a brigade of lawyers to help them.
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