Ted Cruz is the most underrated candidate in the 2016 field

Washington Post ^ | February 13 at 1:10 PM | Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake

[SoConPubbie]

A prominent Republican consultant — who isn't working for any of the 2016 presidential candidates and who has been right more times than I can count — said something that shocked me when we had lunch recently. He said that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had roughly the same odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

Jaw-dropper, right? After all, the conventional wisdom is that Bush, the son and brother of presidents, is the frontrunner to be the Republican standard-bearer, while Cruz, a conservative's conservative, is a factor, sure, but not someone who could actually win the nomination.

How, I asked this guy, could he say such a thing? He explained it this way.

Think of the Republican primary field as a series of lanes. In this race, there are four of them: Establishment, Tea Party, Social Conservative and Libertarian. The four lanes are not of equal size: Establishment is the biggest followed by Tea Party, Social Conservative and then Libertarian. (I could be convinced that Libertarian is slightly larger than Social Conservative, but it's close.)

Obviously the fight for the top spot in the Establishment lane is very crowded, with Bush and possibly Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading at the moment. Ditto the Social Conservative lane with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Rick Santorum all pushing hard there. The Libertarian lane is all Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's but, as I noted above, it's still not that big.

Which leaves the Tea Party lane, which is both relatively large and entirely Cruz's. While Paul looked as though he might try to fight Cruz for supremacy in that lane at one time, it's clear from his recent moves that the Kentucky senator is trying to become a player in a bunch of lanes, including Social Conservative and Establishment.

[SoConPubbie]

I want Scott Walker as President and Ted Cruz as Attorney General. Then when Ginsburg croaks, put him on the Supreme Court.

Complete waste of Ted Cruz's Leadership skills and his fidelity to the Conservative cause.

Cruz is much better than Walker at leadership, communication, and fidelity to Conservatism, all the main requirements of being POTUS. Add into the mix that he has much more foreign policy experience, and hands down, Ted Cruz IS the 1st choice for POTUS, Walker is a distant 2nd, and the rest don't even rate, that is if we are not including Sarah Palin in the mix.

Besides, Walker is the GOP-E back-up plan if Jeb implodes and what we need right now is the Bold leadership of a Reagan-Like conservative, not the Pastel leadership of someone who walks away from fights because pragmatism, or because of a pending POTUS run.

Now, Walker might be a good VP, helping to shore up GOP-E support, but not POTUS.

CRUZ or LOSE!

[Jacquerie]

That poster is ridiculous. Everyone knows Ted Cruz doesn’t smoke.

[TBP]

Cruz scares the bejabbers out of them.

[nitzy]

I thought that way for awhile too but then a thought occurred to me....

With as many “good” candidates in the race as there are and the amount of hate that exists toward the establishment, big money front runner, there is a very good chance for a brokered convention. The more GOPe types that can be bought off to bow out and release their electors to vote for Bush, the less chance that Cruz will have at the convention to win the nomination. I would rather see a straight up primary race with Bush Vs. Cruz Vs. Walker Vs. Paul. I think that is the only way of avoiding a brokered convention and the only chance of a Cruz victory.

[petercooper]

bttt

[duffee]

Senator Cruz is the best we have and probably at least is as good as we’ve ever had. We should not squander what may be our last opportunity by not giving it our BEST shot.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ping!

[2ndDivisionVet]

Interesting comment at the link:

BestandBrightest

1:54 PM CST

I see Cilizza is finally starting to wake up to the reality of the underrated strength of Cruz. I just look at the recent DMR/Bloomberg poll and Cruz’s number doesn’t pop out initially. But just say that Carson, as everyone expects, collapses. The vast majority of his support will head to Cruz. Boom, he’s in the top tier already. Then Cruz whittles away at the washed up Huck’s support as the exciting newcomer, bites into Rand’s support as a strong liberty candidate, and he crushes the field.

Debates make or break candidates in this day and age, and Cruz is the best debater on earth at the moment. He will utterly dominate debates. Cruz is going to catch fire. just watch..

[x]

These two guys get it right, where Walker is concerned. He is the backup Establishment candidate if Jeb Bush fails.

Sure, in the same way that in 1980 Reagan was the backup establishment candidate if George Bush (as they called Papa Bush back then) failed.

Essentially, what you've got are a lot of boutique or niche candidates. Reagan had appeal that went beyond those niches or specialty groups that later developed. He wasn't confined by categories that didn't yet play a large part in Republican politics.

Something similar is true of Walker now. He's hardly in the same confined Establishment or moderate lane with Jeb Bush (the lane Christie or Romney would have been in). He's also not narrowly oriented to Evangelical or social conservatism on the one hand or freewheeling libertarian economic conservatism on the other. Nor is he in the Tea Party niche with Cruz.

That's what Jonah Goldberg was getting at a few days ago when he labeled Walker "vanilla" -- meaning that he was a generic Republican who wasn't owned by any of the various blocs that make up the party and wasn't beholden to any one particular group. A lot of people read "vanilla" as some kind of insult and didn't get the point Jonah was making.

The unfortunate thing about GOP politics now is that if a candidate isn't wholly given over to one of the large blocs that make up the party, many assume that he or she is the Establishment candidate. That's not necessarily the case now, any more than it was the case with Reagan 35 years ago.

[duckln]

Ted Cruz wants to arm the Ukrainians which will put us at risk for a catastrophe.

His Iowa speech toward the end was too preachy.

My choices at this point would be Rand Paul, Walker, Palin, Fiorina.

[trisham]

click the pic

[trisham]

Ted Cruz will NOT get the billionaire money. That will go to Bush and Walker

*********************************

I hope that you're wrong, but I can't concoct an argument...

[Signalman]

I will never vote for the anti-Semite (Paul).

[trisham]

I will not vote for Rand Paul. He’s nuts.

[SoConPubbie]

Sure, in the same way that in 1980 Reagan was the backup establishment candidate if George Bush (as they called Papa Bush back then) failed.
No, not even close.

In the sense that he is much closer, policy wise, to the GOP-E policy platform: Amnesty, compromise or walk away from Social Conservative issue fights, and don't upset too many people:

Scott Walker to tea partiers: Let’s focus on taking out Democrats, not our fellow Republicans

Scott Walker: Gay Marriage Fight Is 'Over In Wisconsin'

Walker Says Legislature Shouldn't Focus On Right-To-Work Bill Next Session

YouTube Link: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, in his own words, endorses a path to citizenship for Illegal Aliens and an Open Border Policy in July of last year.

I also have not been able to find any quote/statement by Walker where he calls for the complete repeal of Obamacare like Ted Cruz has, instead, he uses Obamacare, in effect, surrendering on this issue:

In Wisconsin, Obamacare with a twist

Those are not the actions of a Ronald Reagan type conservative!

CRUZ or LOSE!

[txhurl]

I just look at the recent DMR/Bloomberg poll

---

Seen a copy of that poll, perchance? That Cilizza refs.

[billys kid]

LMAO. Forgot about that pic. I also love the one where he is covered in tats. Instead of a cigarette they should replace it with a big fat joint. After all “shhh!” Did you hear that Ted Cruz actually smoked pot as a teenager?

Cruz/2016!

[Fresh Wind]

Cruz will get millions of small donors AND SOON or his candidacy will be in jeopardy.

All he needs to do is announce. No announce, no money.

[SoConPubbie]

I also have not been able to find any quote/statement by Walker where he calls for the complete repeal of Obamacare like Ted Cruz has

I take that back, just found one:

Walker: Repeal Common Core

Too bad he wants it both ways by moving Wisconsin citizens into Obamacare at the same time

In Wisconsin, Obamacare with a twist

[Fresh Wind]

I will not vote for Rand Paul. He’s nuts.

Like that line from the first Star Wars movie...

"He has too much of his father in him."