The $500 Million Powerball Jackpot And Why It's Not Worth Buying A Ticket

BI ^ | 2-11-2015 | Andy Kiersz

[blam]

Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015

The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.

While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

(snip)

[discostu]

It depends on how nice a person you are. I personally would really enjoy saying no to many many people, rudely, profanely, and loudly. It would even become my voicemail message “if you want money #$%^&^”. That would probably be the best part.

[NRx]

As an investment, or even a gamble, the lottery is strictly for the mathematically challenged. However I can justify spending a buck, or in this case two (it’s the price of a single ticket), on the basis of cheap entertainment. You can’t even see a movie anymore for less than a $10 spot. For two bucks I have been able to daydream about what I would do with an obscene amount of money, even after taxes. But of course, just like with the movies, I know it’s not real. I am buying a fantasy and that’s fine, as long as I understand that I am not going to win.

What it boils down to is that the guy in front of me yesterday dropped $50 on tickets and I dropped $2. We are both getting the same entertainment value and tomorrow neither of us will have $500 million. The difference is that he is out a nice dinner for two in a fancy restaurant, whereas I am out a candy bar.

[marron]

The odds that you will win are vanishingly small.

The odds that someone will win are 100%.

[COBOL2Java]

Well, you got me there, Laz...LOL

[vetvetdoug]

I play the lottery every drawing. The chances of me winning are once every 46X 10/6th years. I call it my optimistic payment. I get to dream about the possibility of winning. It gives me hope, albeit small, but hope. I continue to pay my bills and follow Dave Ramsay's advice except for the lottery. I'd have a better chance of falling in love with Jennifer Anniston but I can't buy a ticket for that.

[PreciousLiberty]

In my state, the estimated net lump sum payout is $229,704,000.

https://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot.asp

[chris37]

Hah!

Well, 174,999,999 times out of 175,000,000, you would be right!

But there is that oooooooooone itttttyy, biiitttty chance that fate smiles on you...or spits on you depending on perspective.

I only buy a ticket if it’s over 350 mil tho, otherwise MEH!

[GeronL]

isn’t that before federal taxes?

[Osage Orange]

In many states...you don't have to reveal your name. You can just create a LLC or Trust.

And then...your full-time job would be managing those monies.

Which would create some interesting dilemma's....

[PreciousLiberty]

No, that’s after Fed and state tax. The top Fed rate is 25%. Check the link.

If I win I’ll definitely throw a Freeper party. Sarah Palin can be guest of honor... :-)

[McGruff]

I don’t play unless it’s a big jackpot. Got 5 tickets today.

[RandallFlagg]

Really?
I wonder if I could do that with my gun trust if I won.

[GeronL]

That is a great idea.

[DugwayDuke]

“If I were to ever win the lottery, I wouldn’t let anyone except my wife know and I’d swear her to secrecy. It wouldn’t change my lifestyle much because I really don’t have any expensive tastes. However, a lot of charities would be very happy at the substantial ANONYMOUS gifts.”

You may not have the option to remain anonymous. I think it depends upon the state.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I won in the last drawing. Four dollars. Every year lotteries have one billion dollars that goes unclaimed simply because many people don’t check their tickets if it’s not a big winner.

I could win 500 million easily. Of course 500 million other people would all have the same number.

[minnesota_bound]

Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 880,000!!
They should have lottery tickets for models. They would sell many many tickets....

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The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are the same at each drawing — about 1 in 176 million. You’re more likely to be killed by an asteroid in your lifetime. Below are odds of other things happening to you, to keep things in perspective:

Any person’s lifetime odds of being killed by an asteroid impact: 1 in 700,000. Odds of an American being killed in a terrorist attack (in about the last five years): 1 in 20 million. Odds of dying in a shark attack: 1 in 3.1 million. Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 880,000. Chance of being struck by lightning: 1 in 12,000 — but some climate scientists predict that will narrow to 1 in 8,000 by 2100. Odds of dying from flesh-devouring bacteria: 1 in a million. The odds of having an 11th toe: 1 in 500.

[Osage Orange]

You told me once a upon a time...you didn’t have any guns.

[minnesota_bound]

#114 make sure you swear your new girlfriends to secrecy or you will have to pay half to the wife in the divorce. : )

[Osage Orange]

Already dated a super model.....

I don't think the asteroid odds are correct.

What are the odds hemorrhoids kill ya?

[RandallFlagg]

With all of the pro second amendment posts and pictures I’ve put on FR, along with already being on multiple lists for my suppressor and CCW, I think it’s a little late to claim that.