Posted on 01/14/2015 5:41:59 PM PST by SkyPilot
If you were waiting for a black swan event to come along and devastate the global economy, you dont have to wait any longer. As I write this, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $45.76 a barrel. It has fallen by more than 60 dollars a barrel since June. There is only one other time in history when we have seen anything like this happen before. That was in 2008, just prior to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But following the financial crisis of 2008, the price of oil rebounded fairly rapidly. As you will see below, there are very strong reasons to believe that it will not happen this time. And the longer the price of oil stays this low, the worse our problems are going to get. At a price of less than $50 a barrel, it is just a matter of time before we see a huge wave of energy company bankruptcies, massive job losses, a junk bond crash followed by a stock market crash, and a crisis in commodity derivatives unlike anything that we have ever seen before. So lets hope that a very unlikely miracle happens and the price of oil rebounds substantially in the months ahead. Because if not, the price of oil is going to absolutely rip the global economy to shreds.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Ir's a miracle that we survived 25 Cents a gallon 50 years ago. We would of been much better off if we were paying 3 dollars a gallon then.
Are you too young to have voted for Ronald Reagan by any chance? Because your “sober analyst” doesn’t appear to know what the hell he is talking about. If you were an adult in 1980 you should have known that in an instant.
Oil was over $60 a barrel when Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. Oil prices began a 20 year decline. $20 a barrel by 1986. Around $13 a barrel by 2000. Falling energy prices were a great benefit to all of us except those in the oil patch.
No, 2008 was because of the 90’s law called the Community Reinvestment Act that officially created a quasi-government organization to purchase all mortgages (regardless of risk).
That’s someone’s speculation using portions of the Bible in an attempt to support such speculation. It’s not direct and definitive Biblical prophecy, but an attempt to imbue someone’s speculation with an aura of “prophecy by deduction”.
“How did the “global economy” survive, when oil prices were low enough, that gasoline was 30 cents a gallon?”
Because of inflation that 30 cents is now over 3 follars.
Individual banks in the oil patch could go under. That will wipe out their stockholders and any depositors unlucky enough to be above the FDIC limit. Won’t hurt the Fed. They’ll find some other bank willing to take over what’s left of the first bank’s business.
“One thing for sure; blacks and women will be hurt the most.”
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I suppose that means that black women are really going to catch it.
I bet boehner is ready to do tarp like bailout.
That looks really nice!
“No, 2008 was because of the 90s law called the Community Reinvestment Act that officially created a quasi-government organization to purchase all mortgages (regardless of risk).”
That’s a myth no matter how often it gets repeated around here. The CRA applied only to deposit takers and it played a very minor role in the housing bubble.
The major players in the housing bubble were Argent, Ameriquest, and the trillion dollar shadow banking system, none of which were covered by the CRA or any government regulation for that matter.
I call BS on your premise. First American fracking Co’s have already hedged 75% of this years “crop “ in the futures market above $90.00 a barrel. Second pumping trillions into the pockets of poor and middle class folks is a bad idea? Yeah right.
“How did the “global economy” survive, when oil prices were low enough, that gasoline was 30 cents a gallon?”
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It survived because the dollar still had some value. A fast food lunch could be had for less than fifty cents. A new Mustang could be had for three thousand dollars or less. In my area ten thousand dollars would buy a brand new small brick house and lot. If you had a hundred dollar bill you could go on a vacation. I used to make a hundred and ten a week as a single man and I drove a new car and partied like a madman. Truly adjusted for inflation and with factors that are generally overlooked accounted for that was probably equal to fifteen hundred a week now.
Price went up 5% today, this is a temporary artificial suppression and it won’t last. That’s a good thing because a lot of people need work. Cheap gas with nobody working doesn’t help anyone.
Easy. I am for lower prices as well, for the average consumer’s be fit. I am also relating what the elite and the banksters are saying, as well as the analysts. From that perspective, I agree that the collapse of the price oil will lead to an energy stock and also a junk bond collapse, which will collapse world markets, which will cause a significant (perhaps historic) economic meltdown. None of it is far fetched.
Easy. I am for lower prices as well, for the average consumer’s be fit. I am also relating what the elite and the banksters are saying, as well as the analysts. From that perspective, I agree that the collapse of the price oil will lead to an energy stock and also a junk bond collapse, which will collapse world markets, which will cause a significant (perhaps historic) economic meltdown. None of it is far fetched.
How much gas can you get with a real silver quarter right now? The paper money people shock me.
How much gas can you get with a real silver quarter right now? The paper money people shock me.
Because of inflation that 30 cents is now over 3 dollars.
I can see that, but I think gas is much less than 3 dollars a gallon now. I wonder what that would equate to in years past, when it WAS 30 cents a gallon?
“Do you think we can survive without the FED?”
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Usta could!
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