Posted on 01/14/2015 5:41:59 PM PST by SkyPilot
If you were waiting for a black swan event to come along and devastate the global economy, you dont have to wait any longer. As I write this, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $45.76 a barrel. It has fallen by more than 60 dollars a barrel since June. There is only one other time in history when we have seen anything like this happen before. That was in 2008, just prior to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But following the financial crisis of 2008, the price of oil rebounded fairly rapidly. As you will see below, there are very strong reasons to believe that it will not happen this time. And the longer the price of oil stays this low, the worse our problems are going to get. At a price of less than $50 a barrel, it is just a matter of time before we see a huge wave of energy company bankruptcies, massive job losses, a junk bond crash followed by a stock market crash, and a crisis in commodity derivatives unlike anything that we have ever seen before. So lets hope that a very unlikely miracle happens and the price of oil rebounds substantially in the months ahead. Because if not, the price of oil is going to absolutely rip the global economy to shreds.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Sure, I'm not recommending investing beyond the 3~6% of gross limit set by most companies.
But within that limit, it is hard to find a better investment. Above that make your own IRA or the like.
Agree with your analysis. Is the bond market the key because almost every government today is so dependent on central banking?
Believe it or not, there are many posters here, and posters on many other boards, who still claim that things are NOT connected by an electronic global financial enterprise. They make statements such as "what do I care what happens in China?" and "Cash is king baby, the US dollar will not end in my lifetime." Or my personal favorite: "My IRA is secure because I study things."
You sir/ma'am are very, very wise.
And yes, the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) will be the new global currency, although I don't know what they will yet call it exactly.
I guess the term "Global Money" is too creepy. Maybe they will just stick with SDR.
There are of ton of people who think a lot of outdated things.
Is it likely the dollar reserve status will remain? The dollar reserve status is based on the petro dollar. The Brics are setting up a different system now. Does it mean the dollar is gone tomorrow? Probably not. But did the British think the pound Sterling was going to go bust back in the forties?
The key to the bonds are the derivatives that leverage just about everything at huge ratios. It’s easy to make money when you just roll the futures contracts over and over. Except when there is a sudden disruption. Then if you are on the wrong side, you are screwed.
401k accounts are generally not insured. Sure, the likelihood of them going to zero is nil, there are people who anticipate bail ins which will grab funds or mandates that require a portion invested in bonds.
When I hear anyone saying something will “never happen” I get nervous. People write on blogs in extremes. I don’t believe that we will be living in bear skins and eating small animals. I do believe we will see another recession and large war. I think we will see it relatively soon.
401ks get hurt by falling stock prices. And stock prices will will certainly fall.
401Ks can be metal based.
Yes. You are correct.
But, even metal based 401ks can be subject to a bail in.
I guess I was referring to the average joe 401k who doesn’t pay attention.
In the past several weeks I’ve moved most of my 401k into “stable mm” accounts. It won’t go up to the blow off top, but it won’t go down much either.
But we both know 99% of 401ks just sit there in a 20## retirement fund.
The “bail in” is an unconstitutional taking of property.
WE know that our government is ruthless enough to go for it, but the probable result would be armed riots throughout the country, with local police and governments bearing the harsh casualties.
Actually it’s not. The federal government cannot do a thing about it. When deposit in a bank, you are not the owner of the money. You are a creditor. And the bad news is you are way down the list of folks to get repaid.
Of course, there is FDIC insurance. If a couple of big banks tank, forget about FDIC. It will be bankrupt. And THAT is when those who have, will be asked to give just a little, to those who do not have.
I am not saying this will happen. I am saying it could happen.
You’ve confused apples and oranges.
The arbitrary taking of funds held by a guarantor is not an insolvency, it is a taking of property.
Trusts are constitutionally protected contracts. The Gov is specifically prohibited from impairing any contract.
I know that doesn’t mean they won’t do it; they’ve defecated on that document frequently in the last 150 years or so.
.
No. I was a banker for a lot of years.
You are wrong.
When you deposit money into the bank it goes on their books as a liability and you become a creditor.
If the bank goes insolvent, the succession of creditors that are paid out go following a specific line of payment. Depositors are third or fourth on the list.
The choice, in the hypothetical case of bail ins, is that you give up 15% of your money (for example), or you get nothing.
In Cyprus anyone with more than $100,000 (or so) got the hair cut on everything over that level.
If your choice is a bail in or complete failure of the system..the fed is not going ask your permission.
You are confusing the Fed with Federal.
Most retirement funds are held by a trustee, not a bank.
Trustees’ first obligation is to the trustor.
You apparently do not understand fiduciary commitment; no surprise if you were in banking, banks are just boxes full of criminals in suits.
.
If you were on the accelerator a good half second before you needed the power, it was there when you needed it. The 4-speed was great on gravel, too.
The last one I had I bought for 20 bucks, put a new radiator in it after jacking the front back into place (bought it from a friend who had parked it on a rock), and drove it for a couple of years--mostly in town because it shook like Chuck Yeager's plane breaking the sound barrier at 50 or better.
I sold it to a guy who wanted the steering gear for a hot rod project, for more than I paid for it.
All of a sudden you are talking about retirement accounts?
We were talking about bail ins at banks.
When did you switch to retirements?
.
>> “All of a sudden you are talking about retirement accounts?” <<
.
That is what the rest of us were discussing when you jumped in.
Banking was your diversion, but we had already accepted that what was in the Beast’s coffers was not to be relied upon.
401Ks are only intended for retirement.
.
Ditto that....and 1972 also....
Ok, my mistake. Apologies all around.
But, as I said earlier...do you think most people will be wise enough to change the investment choices in their 401ks? Except for you and I, do you think many other people will not get slaughtered in the next crash. They did not learn.
Well stated. The summing up, is due. In this year, the Jubilee is underway. Regardless, to anyone caring or not.
.
>> “ In this year, the Jubilee is underway...” <<
.
God’s years do not begin when man’s years do.
Shemitta should begin on man’s March 22, at sunset this year, depending on the Barley being ‘Aviv.’
.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.