Posted on 01/05/2015 9:46:29 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
Too many missions and too few pilots are threatening the ‘readiness and combat capability’ of America’s unmanned Air Force, according to an internal memo. The U.S. Air Force’s fleet of drones is being strained to the “breaking point,” according to senior military officials and an internal service memo acquired by The Daily Beast. And it’s happening right when the unmanned aircraft are most needed to fight ISIS.
The Air Force has enough MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones. It just doesn’t have the manpower to operate those machines. The Air Force’s situation is so dire that Air Combat Command (ACC), which trains and equips the service’s combat forces, is balking at filling the Pentagon’s ever increasing demands for more drone flights.
“ACC believes we are about to see a perfect storm of increased COCOM [Combatant Commander] demand, accession reductions, and outflow increases that will damage the readiness and combat capability of the MQ-1/9 enterprise for years to come,” reads an internal Air Force memo from ACC commander Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, addressed to Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh. “I am extremely concerned.”
“ACC will continue to non-concur to increased tasking beyond our FY15 [fiscal year 2015] force offering and respectfully requests your support in ensuring the combat viability of the MQ-1/9 platform,” Carlisle added.
In other words, the Air Force is saying that its drone force has been stretched to its limits. “It’s at the breaking point, and has been for a long time,” a senior service official told The Daily Beast. “What’s different now is that the band-aid fixes are no longer working.”
In the internal memo, Carlisle noted that the Air Force’s current manning problem is so acute that the service will have to beg the Pentagon to reconsider its demand for 65 drone combat air patrols, or CAPs, as early as April 2015. (Each CAP, also known as an “orbit,” consists on four aircraft.)
But senior military leaders in the Pentagon have been pushing back hard against any reduction in the number of drone orbits, particularly as demand has surged in recent months over Iraq and Syria because of the war against ISIS. In fact, the Pentagon is so fervent in its demand for more Predator and Reaper patrols that the top military brass made an end run to bypass regular channels to increase the number of drone orbits, the ACC alleges.
“The reduced offering of 62 CAPs (plus a 60-day Global Response Force) has been submitted to the Joint Staff; however, the Joint Staff has indicated their desire to circumvent normal processes while proposing their own offering of 65 MQ-1/9 CAPs,” Carlisle wrote. “This simply is not an option for ACC to source indeterminately.”
Carlisle writes that the Air Force would want a crew ratio of 10 to one for each drone orbit during normal everyday operations. During an emergency that ratio could be allowed to drop to 8.5 people per orbit. However, the Air Force is so strapped for people that the ratio has dropped below even that reduced level.
“ACC squadrons are currently executing steady-state, day-to-day operations (65 CAPs) at less than an 8:1 crew-to-CAP ratio. This directly violates our red line for RPA [remotely pilot aircraft] manning and combat operations,” Carlisle wrote. “The ever-present demand has resulted in increased launch and recovery taskings and increased overhead for LNO [liaison officer] support.”
The Air Force has been forced to raid its schools for drone operators to man the operational squadrons that are flying combat missions over places like Iraq and Syria. As a result, training squadrons—called Formal Training Units (FTU)—are being staffed with less than half the people they need. Even the Air Force’s elite Weapons School—the service’s much more extensive and in-depth version of the Navy’s famous Top Gun school—course for drone pilots was suspended in an effort to train new rookie operators.
Overworked drone crews have had their leaves canceled and suffered damage to their careers because they could not attend required professional military education courses.
The result is that drone operators are leaving the Air Force in droves. “Pilot production has been decimated to match the steady demand placed upon the RPA community by keeping ‘all hands’ in the fight,” Carlisle wrote. “Long-term effects of this continued OPSTEMPO are manifested in declining retention among MQ-1/9 pilots, FTU manning at less than 50%, and enterprise-wide pilot manning hovering at about 84%.”
The Air Force has about seven pilots for every eight drone pilot slots, in other words.
But it takes more than just pilots to operate the drone fleet. In addition to the pilots who “fly” the MQ-1s and MQ-9s, there are sensor operators who work the cameras and other intelligence-gathering hardware onboard the unmanned aircraft. Further, there are maintenance crews who have to fix those drones. Perhaps most crucially, drones require hundreds of intelligence analysts who have to comb through thousands of hours of video surveillance footage to understand what the flight crews are watching.
“Some have looked at this as a problem with just RPA pilots and the number of them required for these CAPs, but that ignores the tail required for supporting RPA operations,” a senior Air Force official said. “This tail requires hundreds of man-hours to support every hour of flight in forward operations, maintenance, and most starkly in the processing, exploitation, and dissemination of the intelligence that RPAs create.”
The problem for Carlisle and the Air Force is that even as the demand increases on the drone fleet, fewer new troops enter the ranks while more and more veteran operators vote with their feet.
Active Duty ping.
> The Air Force has enough MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones. It just doesn’t have the manpower to operate those machines
Simple solution; form a program named Sky-Net to develop AI for the drones where they can work sutonomously on a network network them so they can perform coordinated attacks...should work just fine.
Just port access to the drones to XBOX LIVE using a VIDEO GAME and problem solved.
A man who had never run so much as a hot dog cart is somehow put in charge of the largest and most complex government on Earth. This is what happens.
Always the Air Force.
“”Unlike its sister services, who have all decided the best way to deal with demand for UAV pilots is to make it an enlisted career field, the Air Force currently insists on holding out for commissioned officers only. That means to fly a UAV in the Air Force, you’ll need a college degree, though not necessarily a pilot’s license. According to Brigadier General Lyn D. Sherlock, in this 2008 interview with Air Force Times, enlisted careers in UAVs are off the table for the moment “because battlefields are complex, joint environments that involve other aircraft and communicating with soldiers and airmen on the ground.”
Seems like plenty of enlisted aircrew already deal with that complexity, but so be it.””
Agreed. The sensor operators often pilot the craft anyway.
Yep.
It took a lot of pressure to make them stop requiring that drone pilots be pilots on flight status.
A twisted ankle meant that the drone pilot was off flight status on drones.
The Air Force has serious weaknesses as far as being focused on what really counts, they are more like a bloated, self focused government agency, than a branch of the military.
MFL.
So, you ask yourself some stupid questions. If you went through hundreds of hours of training, went through four years of college, and then went through a hearty pilot-instruction to become a F-15 or F-16 pilot, AND then some idiot said they needed you to be a seat-warmer and fly a drone for three years...how would you feel?
You sit there for X number of drone missions, and one night do something extraordinary....then a month later, there’s an award ceremony where they give you a Silver Star or big-time award...with smirks from the audience...you, the drone guy, getting some award that used to mean something but now it’s been all cheapen down. How would you feel?
My son at age sixteen....king of World of Warcraft....probably could have gone through a three-month orientation of the drone business and out flown ninety-percent of the pilots there. There’s tens of thousands of punk kids with the capability of flying the drone, killing bad guys when necessary, and sipping Mountain Dew by the case to stay awake.
I don’t buy into any of this garbage. While I did my twenty-odd years in the AF, I was in a field where it was generally one officer for every four enlisted. Most of the enlisted by ten years of service had at least an associates degree. Roughly fifty percent of the NCOs retiring at twenty had a bachelor’s degree. If they want more drone pilots....they’ve already got the people there and ready to go.
All this is....is a forced option where they get some idiot at the Pentagon to agree to bring in another 500 pilots into the Air Force. You can see the gimmick....how it’s rigged up....and it’ll relate to some number in the Pentagon budget.
Perhaps the AF should turn it over to the Marines.
Yep, it is clearly a case of leadership that has goals and ego-centric motivations that conflict with mission needs of the American military as a fighting force.
Since the air force brass can’t figure out the solution, perhaps drone operations should be turned over to the army, together with the staffing slots and funding. If that works out, roll the whole AF back in.
That was my first thought. I have a grandson (12) who would love this stuff. Only kid I have seen work a mouse with one hand and type away with the other.
back to the USAAF
Trading on the stock market today is mostly done automatically by computer algorthyms - with entire buildings in NYC being renovated for computers instead of office space. (True!)
Hmm - what is more worrisome? Some drones or our economy run by computers?
Skynet... as the millennials all say, “No problem”.
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