Posted on 12/30/2014 11:33:06 AM PST by blam
December30, 2014
John_Rubino
Twelve short months ago, the immediate future looked like a lock. Overvalued equities had to fall, ridiculously-low interest rates had to rise, and beaten-down precious metals had to resume their bull market.
The evidence was overwhelming. Debt in the developed world had risen to $157 trillion, or 376% of GDP, by far the highest level on record and clearly unsustainable. Long-term US Treasury rates had been falling for literally three decades and despite a recent uptick were so low that the only way forward seemed to be up.
Europe and Japan were drifting into recessions that could easily morph into capital-D Depressions. The eurozone would fragment, Japanese bonds and probably stocks would crater, one or more major currencies would implode. No way to know which event would come first and in what order the other dominoes would fall, but without doubt something had to give.
And gold, of course, had had its correction and was, at the beginning of 2014, perilously close to the mining industrys cost of production. The last time that happened, in 2008, an epic bull market ensued and gold-bugs were anxious for a replay.
Yet 2014 turned out to be a pretty good year for the powers that be and the economic theories that animate their behavior. Equities boomed, interest rates fell, the dollar soared, and gold ended the year below where it started. Gold miners, after a year of operating at an aggregate loss, have seen their market values crater.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
You can still buy gold for Roubles? I think that’s a deal at any price.
Sure, but with paper gold, there is a long and a short. So why does it matter?
and until that bubble bursts
What bubble?
physical gold will remain depressed.
Why won't it go down more?
Been hearing this for a couple decades now, and it makes sense, but...that doesn't seem to matter...somehow the markets continue to be propped up, as previously mentioned, by the gubmint printing press. This can't last forever either, or can it? I mean, really...all conventional economic wisdom seems to be flying out the window.
The market is reminding me more and more of the images and psychology behind the jihadi executioner standing next to his strangely calm American victim (Sotloff).
The explanation [for passive captives who are about to be beheaded] was that they are trotted out and threatened repeatedly to the point of never knowing which day will be the "one", so the odds become "probably not today" and they just sit through the game. Then... surprise.
Easy to become non-reactive and detached after every probable meltdown based on sound reasoning nonetheless ends up as another "nevermind".
You didn’t have to buy it back in the Hunt brothers days to pay $50 an oz.
The one that burns and can be used as TP. Might as well go out in warmth and comfort...
All well said FPC. Regarding #7. I don’t either. My PM’s held, (physically by myself), are for the sole purpose of converting some, not all, of it into the ‘next’, (whatever that next might be), currency to be established following the crash of the dollar. I pray I will never need to do that but according to a lot of the financial gurus, the collapse of the dollar is not to far off. If my PM’s are not ever needed for a conversion scenario.....well having a good amount stashed is still not a bad thing!
Black gold bugs.
Markets are manipulated up and down by a variety of actors to make money. In retrospect common sense dictates that a basic commodity like crude oil does not lose half its value in a few months due to supply and demand. Demand hasn't suddenly halved and supply hasn't suddenly doubled. Something else was supporting that high price a few months ago. If it wasn't speculation, I'm open to other explanations.
Some gold advocates theorize that the TBTF banks are short physical and paper gold. Plus, since they are TBTF they can drive the paper market wherever they want it to go.
Others don't really care and look on such periods as these as buying opportunities.
Maybe they thought he was John F. Kennedy.
Gold would have been a great investment in Russia, though.
Why not?
Demand hasn't suddenly halved and supply hasn't suddenly doubled.
Psychological factors aren't involved in demand? Supply isn't just supply today, but also expected supply in the future. Demand isn't just demand today, but expected demand in the future.
A 10% increase in supply doesn't mean a 10% drop in price.
Some gold advocates theorize that the TBTF banks are short physical and paper gold.
Why would they be? Why wouldn't they be long gold?
Plus, since they are TBTF they can drive the paper market wherever they want it to go.
The same way they could drive housing higher, so we'd never have a crash in 2008?
Nothing wrong with that but the thread is about gold.
Because it illustrates exactly what both are truly worth.
Gold like paper currency only has value if a buyer and seller agree it does. It is a medium of exchange. It has no magically properties that make it valuable other than use in manufacturing.
If you are hungry and have no food but have gold you can't eat gold. So for the gold to be valuable you must find someone who has food and is willing to trade his food for your gold. If there is a growing shortage of food your gold's buying power becomes less and less until the food is depleted and then it's value reaches nil when trying to purchase food.
So bottom line gold is only worth what two parties agree it is worth when conducting a transaction that involves gold.
Goldbug ping.
Mish Shedlock and Ron Paul, for starters, and my cousin, who, even with little in the way of gold, seems to relish the idea of general economic catastrophe.
When the government calculates inflation, they aim for a general measure of price movements and include price drops, such as those recently as to fuel costs. In any event, even critics of the official inflation index do not see significant inflation now underway.
Really? I was in the photo industry the entire time and remember silver dropping back down to $5-$7 per troy oz for the next twenty years, at least. When did it return to the levels of $50?
End of April 2011, just a bit under $50
Cool, thanks. I retired before then and haven’t kept track. Funny it would do that, since silver-based photography was in the process of going away. You’d think the price would stay down.
Let's say that the economy really did collapse and paper money became worthless overnight.
Do these people really think that they can grab a gold bar out of their safe, head on over to the supermarket, load their carriage full of food and then slam a gold bar on the counter to pay for it?
How would they get their change?
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