Posted on 12/19/2014 4:27:10 AM PST by nathanbedford
Implications of Sony
1. The threat posed by unidentified attackers of the Sony system is not limited to the Hollywood corporation but has broad, even existential, implications for homeland defense, for liberty, especially the First Amendment, and for the economy.
2. Our nuclear facilities, our transportation infrastructure, our communication infrastructure, our banking institutions, Wall Street, our media, system of justice and the rule of law, in short, the whole structure which holds our way of life together and keeps us from anarchy are potentially threatened by any expansion or intensification of this threat.
3. The identity of the hackers is unknown, at least to the public, nor is it known for sure whether the culprits are one nation or conspiracy of several nations. The media and the government have tentatively identified North Korea as the culprit. But other public indications say that the software is entirely too sophisticated to have come exclusively from North Korea and that suggests a conspiracy involving those nations with the capacity: Russia, China, Iran. Even if there is no conspiracy beyond North Korea, it is certainly possible that the success of the hack against Sony might just instigate such an axis of cyber evil.
4. The frantic conferences in the White House are not reassuring. This frantic disarray might have been caused by any one or combination of the following: (A) the president has been utterly inattentive to briefings which might have brought him up to speed and have caused a responsible leader to take appropriate defensive measures; (B) the defense and intelligence establishments in the United States were blindsided and are frantically trying to identify the source of the hack; (C) the diplomatic arm of the government is frantically reaching out to allies and China for intelligence and cooperation; (D) a menu of options is being created to deal with the specific threat and subsequent enlarged and far more dangerous attacks.
5. Those options are severely constrained by the fact that three out of the four nations named, Russia, China, North Korea, all have the bomb and the fourth nation, Iran, has just been given the green light to get the bomb by the Obama administration. Therefore, military action against the first three is virtually to be ruled out and military action, in the unlikely event that it is to be resorted to by this administration against Iran must be done quickly. Because of the bomb military action must necessarily be confined to peripheral proxy war actions. Obama has shown no stomach for any where it might advance the interests United States is shown more than a reluctance to engage Iran.
6. A strategic conception must be settled on. Does The United States react with only diplomatic efforts? Should the strategy be one of retaliation? Deterrence? Containment? Should we retaliate militarily? By a counter cyber attack? With economic sanctions? These questions cannot be answered, unfortunately, until intelligence determines the nature of the attack, it's motivation, the identity of the attackers and whether they have the bomb. No diplomatic reaction against North Korea can have much effect against this already isolated rogue nation without explicit and real intervention by China, which is unlikely. Military intervention against North Korea, Russia or China is unthinkable because of the bomb. Military retaliation against Iran is unthinkable because the Obama administration won't think it. Containment will have little effect in a world of cyberspace. Economic sanctions will have little effect against already isolated Korea but might prove more effective against an already beleaguered Russia-or more provocative and therefore more dangerous-and might certainly have profound effect against China, but the ability of the world's largest economy to retaliate against the world's second economy (take your pick, which is which) certainly would be profoundly economically dangerous to the whole world. It is conceivable that counter cyber attacks could be waged against peripheral targets done with plausible deniability to deliver a message of determination that might lead to a condition of containment. Whatever course is embarked upon, we must recognize the path is strewn with hidden traps which could catapult the situation into real war. But we must not forget that cyber warfare can cause just as many casualties as might be caused by what we regard as conventional or even nuclear warfare.
7. The list of options surveyed above indicates that the United States and the West are perilously vulnerable to cyber attack with very few attractive options for retaliation. None of these options can be pursued with any confidence so long as our intelligence leaves us in a muddle.
8. The most obvious first move is to beef up our defenses. Some reports characterize our defense establishment provisions is far superior to our private commercial free marketplace. We Americans have a peculiar liability because so much of our defense establishment is inextricably interwoven with our military-industrial complex that a successful hack of private enterprise can lead directly into the Pentagon or to a place just as fruitful. To beef up our requirements of private industry suggests loss of liberty. A trade-off is inevitable. Worse, the attack against Sony has been an attack not just against the corporate structure when against individuals to turn those individuals to do the hackers bidding. That means that the individuals affiliated with our private partners in the military-industrial complex might also be targeted and that means that their security will have to be upgraded. A lesson we should already have learned from Mr. Snowden. In any event, these inevitable measures inevitably mean loss of liberty. The trade-off continues.
9. In the wake of 9/11 we conducted a thorough review and ultimately a revision of the national defense posture setting up the Department of Homeland Security. Without wandering into a discussion of the prudence of that revision, it is clear that a review and possible revision of our cyber vulnerabilities and are offensive cyber capacities must be undertaken. If the Department of Homeland Security is historical foresight, the outcome will no doubt be mixed and bureaucratic. It probably will have insufficient connection to the kind of strategy we should choose and implement and will rather have to do with bringing the pork home.
10. It might have already occurred to Putin that a cyber attack against the facilities in Saudi Arabia, for example, which pump oil and transport oil would be devastating to the price of oil, causing it to spike while leaving the West with no option but to buy oil and gas from Russia at high prices, thus saving Putin from his own follies. The attraction of such a situation to Iran is also obvious. China, to the contrary, has an interest in maintaining oil at a cheap price. So Russia and Iran, coming closer and closer as allies, might see an opportunity as they are illuminated by the hack against Sony. Iran cannot go it alone until it gets the bomb and Russia would seek plausible deniability but the temptation would be very great. Perhaps an attack could be launched from Nigeria which will also profit, indeed the regime might save itself, with higher oil prices. Putin could consider that is downside risk is minimal, no one is going to deliberately initiate war against Russia on an intercontinental or on a nuclear level. His standing with the people will only be improved, even if found out. Only food for thought.
10. These thoughts are suggested to spark discussion
As it is, and as we here all already know, America currently resides at a point in history where our allies no longer trust us, and our enemies no longer fear us.
Remind me to thank all of my "fellow Americans" who, in their arrogance, stupidity and idol-worship, put these cretins in power.
Exactly. I agree point by point.
Alas, Brave New Babylon.
BTTT
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