Posted on 12/04/2014 7:53:12 AM PST by Kaslin
With the runoff just two days away in Louisiana’s Senate race, the excitement of the final contest in the 2014 midterms is so thick one could cut it with a knife … at least on the GOP side. Since independent pollsters gave up on the finale of Mary Landrieu’s Senate career, Republican pollsters are the only ones taking surveys — or at least the only ones publishing the results. The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker takes a look at the latest results from WPA Opinion Research, working on behalf of the conservative group Independent Women’s Voice, and finds Bill Cassidy out in front of the incumbent by 24 points:
Cassidy led Landrieu 57 percent to 33 percent in the survey conducted Nov. 24-25 by WPA Opinion Research for Independent Women’s Voice. His victory would bring the number of Republican Senate seats captured in this year’s midterm elections to nine, topping off the new GOP majority at 54 seats. The poll of 500 likely voters had an error margin of 4.4 percentage points.
“Cassidy has the lead among all gender age groups and enjoys a [sizable] lead among independent voters,” WPA Opinion Research said in a memo.
“Moreover, based on current projections, even if African-Americans support Landrieu at 95% and turnout in record numbers, she will still lose on Election Day.”
The best that Landrieu can manage in the gender demos is a ten-point deficit among women 55 years of age and older. Cassidy gets 61% of women between 18-54 years of age to just 32% for Landrieu. The gap actually narrows slightly with men in the same age range, going 56/31 for Cassidy. Independent voters give Cassidy an astonishing 44-point lead, 67/23.
As noted, bear in mind that this is a Republican-leaning pollster. Normally analysts would treat results from partisan pollsters with a little skepticism, but in this race that’s all we’re seeing. According to the Real Clear Politics poll average (which does not yet include this poll), the closest survey to this was another Republican poll taken a week before Thanksgiving, which showed Cassidy up 26 points, 60/34, and a small local firm (JMC) taken at the same time that had Cassidy up 53/38. Rasmussen’s the only independent national pollster watching the race, and they came up with a 15-point Cassidy lead as well. The way Republican pollsters are seeing the race, a 15-point loss might be seen as a moral victory for Landrieu.
What’s telling is that other pollsters are either not surveying the only race with national interest left to resolve, or aren’t publishing the results if they are. There is a notable lack of leaks from Landrieu’s internal polling, for instance, which speaks volumes about what they’re seeing. The traditional Democrat-leaning pollsters have also been awfully quiet, like PPP — whose final pre-Nov 4th poll showed that a runoff election between Cassidy and Landrieu would be a dead heat, 48/47. On Monday, PPP announced that they would do only one public poll in December, and that would be “our regular look at North Carolina,” whose Senate race got settled four weeks ago.
The way Democrats have behaved in this runoff also speaks volumes, the Washington Post reports today. They’re already blaming Landrieu for her campaign strategy while they cut her loose:
There remains the formality of a runoff election on Saturday — but as far as the national Democratic Party is concerned, three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is presumed dead. …
But national Democrats speak — not for attribution, of course— as though they have already left the field and headed for the locker room. Their dispirited donors, they say, are tapped out and unwilling to open their wallets for a lost cause.
All along, Landrieu’s biggest hurdle has been the political climate, which helped the Republicans take eight other Democratic-held Senate seats.
Party strategists also fault her campaign for disregarding advice from Washington and spending virtually all of its war chest on the November election, in hopes of avoiding a runoff. She got just over 42 percent of the vote in the eight-candidate field — eight percentage points shy of the showing she needed to win outright.
And not just the Democratic Party, either:
An analysis of data by Kantar Media/CMAG for the Center for Public Integrity found that outside groups allied with Cassidy have put up about 6,000 ads during the runoff period. That compares with fewer than 100 by those supporting Landrieu, whose most active supporter has been the Humane Society Legislative Fund.
It’s going to be ugly for Landrieu on Saturday, and it looks like everyone on the Left is hitting warp speed to escape from the stench.
I’ll bet the convenience store robberies in Houston took a big jump with their new residents from NO’s 9th Ward.
They won’t vote for Sheila during her next run unless they get a State approved ID. ;^)
Or they go to lobbying firms, waiting for the political winds to change to return to staff status. But you are correct; it’s all a game of musical chairs where chairs are added but never taken away.
“I’ll bet the convenience store robberies in Houston took a big jump with their new residents from NO’s 9th Ward.”
Absolutely true. The crime statistics sky-rocketed when the New Orleans ‘tribe’ moved here.
In addition, the New Orleans ‘tribe’ thought that they were ‘special’ and tried to ‘horn-in’ on the Houston ‘tribe’ and take over. There was a showdown at one of the high schools and the New Orleans ‘tribe’ was put promptly in their place.
Unfortunately, most of them thought that Houston is heaven compared to what they had in New Orleans so that they stayed here. The crime rate is still high compared to what it was before Katrina.
The strange part is that I am a native New Orleanian from the 9th ward and moved to Houston in 1970 because I ‘looked into the future’. I was so very happy to get out of there! I now have to cry for both cities.
The dead vote in New Orleans was responsible for her first win. They wait until they see how many votes they need, then the dead come alive and put her over the top.
The basic problem for ML: Outside of her family I don’t think she will get any white votes.
If there is one African-American that is voting for Mary Landrieu in Louisiana......they must be either drunk, high on reefer and just simply insane!!! Obama/Landrieu/ the Democrat Party has really done a number on the Black folks IN LA.....and the dummies are too stupid to see it. Man....that CBC, nutcase, Congressman Al Green is not playing with a full deck!!!
Black Americans have no idea how bad they have screwed themselves across the board. Yep....keep following Obama/Holder/Sharpton/the CBC/The NAACP & the Democrat party and then take your & their train to nowhere.....Obama;s Slave Plantation......while they all get rich on your self-inflicted misery.
Yes.....folks sometimes the truth hurts....but, the truth is always the truth!!!! Look in the mirror and your problem will be seen in the image you see coming back at you!!! Badly adrift at sea....without a paddle!!! SAD....you all are aliens in your country, caused by your own hand and incompetent or criminal leaders and clergymen!!!
One wonders how long it will take for the Progressives to get the fraud machine adequately greased up and running.
IMHO
You’re mixing up Natalie Maines and Porky Landrieu. Maines is the singing fat lady; Landrieu is the senator.
“Party strategists also fault her campaign for disregarding advice from Washington and spending virtually all of its war chest on the November election, in hopes of avoiding a runoff.”
Given the precarious nature of her re-election chances, I don’t think this was the worst strategy for her. I think that she knew (along with her local campaign staff) that if she didn’t win out-right in the primary, that she’d be dead meat in the run-off.
Of course, she was counting on a lot of outside money coming in after the primary. But once the big givers and PAC’s saw the results, they saw her as Dead Woman Walking.
But let’s say for the sake of argument that she still held money in reserve for the run-off. I don;t think it’ll change the final outcome this Saturday.
A 24 point margin would be priceless. I’m not expecting it, but who knows what’ll happen?
33% for a major party candidate is insane, but even in Texas the statewide Democrats were generally stuck under 40%
110% won’t be enough this time
In Louisiana, reliable Democrat voters have been trained for generations to vote only when paid. “Vote-hauling,” “canvassing,” “walking around money,” are but some of the euphemisms for the practice.
Another tried and true practice is plumping up the offering plate in the black churches.
But when the money ain’t there, then the votes evaporate. And Mary’s campaign is flat-ass broke.
That is what is going on.
abb says 60-40 Mary is going down.
That’s Blanche Lincoln territory...
They say “It ain’t over ‘til the Fat Lady sings.”
So I’m waiting for Porky Landrieu to sing.
Mary is truly power-mad, makes her father and brother seem almost meek by comparison.
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