Alaska media: Dan Sullivan likely to be the 53rd GOP senator next year

Hotair ^ | 11/11/2014 | NOAH ROTHMAN

[SeekAndFind]

According to analyses conducted by Alaska-based media outlets, it is looking increasingly unlikely that Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) will retain his seat in the next Congress.

At the end of the night on Tuesday, GOP candidate Dan Sullivan emerged with a more than an 8,000-vote lead over Begich, but it could not be projected whether Sullivan’s 3.6-point advantage over the incumbent would hold after al of Alaska’s 21,000 plus absentee ballots were counted.

Increasingly, though, Alaskan media outlets are coming around to the view that Begich’s deficit is too great to make up in uncounted votes.

Last week, an analysis in the Alaska-based News Miner via the Alaska Public Radio Network reporter Alexandra Gutierrez determined that Sullivan and independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker would emerge victorious after all the votes were counted.

The analysis was reached by taking each group of absentee, early and questioned ballots and dividing them based on trends seen in already-counted absentee, early and question ballots for each district.

For example, Begich won 62.5 percent of early ballots cast in House District 1, so he’s expected to receive 46 of the 73 uncounted early votes in that district.
…
Conventional wisdom is that early voting will skew away from the general population that heads to the polls. Depending on who you ask, those voters will be Republican-leaning or Democratic-leaning.

That does appear to be the case at least in Fairbanks. In the same House District 1 mentioned above, Begich fared much worse in already-counted absentee ballots, earning just 37.5 percent of those ballots.

On Sunday night, an analysis published in The Juneau Empire posited that “Dan Sullivan has the ball and a two-touchdown lead over Mark Begich,” and the incumbent is unlikely to mount a comeback.

“Unless something drastically changes when the Alaska Division of Elections starts counting absentee, questioned and early ballots on Tuesday, Dan Sullivan will be the next U.S. Senator from Alaska,” The Empire’s James Brooks wrote

Begich has said he expects absentee and early voters to favor him, but if absentee balloting follows the patterns set on Election night, Sullivan will increase his lead as more votes are counted, likely by more than 2,000 votes when tallying finishes.

The problem for Begich is one of distribution — there are more remaining votes in areas that favored Sullivan than areas that favored Begich.

The deadline set by Alaska’s Davison of Elections to receive all absentee ballots is November 19, and the final tally will not be known for some time after that deadline has passed. As of today, however, it appears as though Sullivan will be the GOP’s 53rd senator in the 114th Congress.

If Sullivan emerges victorious, the GOP still has one more shot to pick up a seat in the next Senate in Louisiana where a runoff between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will be held on December 6.

[C210N]

Very important to get that number, 55 with Alaska and Louisiana, as high as possible to withstand the 2016 Senate class. This includes such seats as McConnell; and now, for the next battle... Ditch Mitch to his proper role - backbencher.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Very important to get that number, 55 with Alaska and Louisiana, as high as possible to withstand the 2016 Senate class.

I’m afraid the best we have is 54, IF Mary Landrieu loses the Louisiana runoff Dec. 6.

Ed Gillespie has already conceded in Virginia.

[pepsionice]

Fifty-five on 1 January 2015. And Fifty-seven on 1 January 2017.

I’ll go ahead and predict 2019, they hit peak out at 60. The damage done here....will last around for at least six to eight years, and we haven’t even hit the peak yet.

[Liz]

Repubs could scoop up yet another seat----NJ Gov Christie would appoint a Repub----b/c shady NJ Sen Menendez is under investigation for a host of corrupt activities. Menendez is being bird-dogged by ace WNBC-TV reporter Jonathan Dienst who uncovered dirt that drove NJ's corrupt Torricelli out of office. The FBI is also involved.

Sen Menendez crassly used tax-paid US govt resources, govt authority, and his privileged Senatorial position, to convene a special hearing on the Dominican Republic port deal---Menendez was the only Senator present at the hearing but the hearing had the full force of the US govt.

Self-serving Menendez---advocating for his donor/pal Melgen---dragged US officials up to the Hill for questioning---pressuring US officials about why the Dominican port deal had not gone through.

The Times quotes Menendez at the hearing: "You have another company (Melgen's deal) that has 'American investors' that is seeking to - has a contract actually given to it by the - kind of ratified by the Dominican Congress----to do X-ray of all of the cargo that goes through the ports, which have been problematic and for which in the past narcotics have been included in those cargo," the senator said.

Menendez later reinforced his authority by phoning US officials at the Depts of State and Commerce on behalf of a large campaign donor--Melgen.

========================================================

MENENDEZ IS OBAMA'S POINT MAN FOR AMNESTY
THE PROTECTION RACKET BEGINS HERE The Senate
Immigration "Reform" Bill Protects Crooked Latino
Public Officials in US positions from prosecution for
wrongdoing in elective and appointive office.

THE SUCK-UP

DC Gala--Ntl Assoc of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials
L-R--Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ);
Dr Salomon Melgen, VOXXI Chman (now under investigation);
Rep Nancy Pelosi (D-CAL); San Francisco
J. Sanchez, US Under Secy of Commerce for Intl Trade,
Emilio Sanchez, Pres/CEO of VOXXI.
(Photo/Voxxi---Melgen's ethnic solidarity web site)

CORRUPT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS SAVING MENENDEZ'S SORRY A**----AS PRES OBAMA REACHES FOR THE FOREIGN AID CHECKBOOK (reward for avoiding the dreaded Christie Republican appointment)

AP reports that Vincio Castillo Seman, the Dominican lawyer involved in Menendez's underage prostitute mess, is hog-tied to the top echelon of the Dominican govt---Seman's father is a Dominican presidential adviser and his brother is a member of the Dominican Republic Congress.

Menendez's donor/pal, Floridian Dr Melgen, is a top political operator in the Dominican Republic---his native land.

=================================================

Americans should rise up in anger and demand corrupt Dominican Republic politicians stop meddling in our affairs. Clearly Menendez/Melgen colluded and conspired with the top echelon of the corrupt Dominican govt to bailout Menendez.

These shady Third World tactics diminish and marginalize the grassroots American democratic process. Menendez in league with Third World pols is a side show we can do without.

Its reprehensible to see Dominican national Vincio Castillo Seman sucking up for Menendez. He should be sidelined along with his father---a Dominican presidential adviser---and his brother---a member of the DR Congress.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Hopefully Sullivan is lawyered up by now.

Looks like the Dems are trying to steal this one.

This one is going to the mattresses.

[taildragger]

Repubs could scoop up yet another seat----NJ Gov Christie would appoint a Repub----b/c shady NJ Sen Menendez is under investigation for a host of corrupt activities.

I shouldn't bang on Mitch McConnell, however.... It wasn't just the Scott Brown Victory the he had at hand to help move the Senate in his favor, he also had the ill health of Robert Byrd and eventual death, The death of Jersey's Lautenberg, and The Menedez under-aged hooker scandal to help increase his numbers. Unless their were things going on behind the scenes that we weren't privvy too, he did nothing to leverage these events, i.e. to give people a reason to vote for Republicans as the Senator for these seats, and to fund these challenger's efforts.

[armydawg505]

Don’t beet the farm that Christie will appoint a Republican.

[armydawg505]

Don’t bet the farm that Christie will appoint a Republican.

[surrey]

How about Shaheen who is up to her ears in the I.R.S scandal. Hopefully that starts to percolate and engulf her.

[KoRn]

The guy looks like a snake. His fake smile only makes it worse. Every one of the people in that image probably belong in prison! Instead, they make the laws that WE must follow, at gunpoint if necessary....

[Graybeard58]

Alaska’s 21,000 plus absentee ballots

Other reports, as posted at F.R. say 50,000, which is it?

[C210N]

And Fifty-seven on 1 January 2017...

I like your optimism, but I know too many places, like here in MA, where the 'Rats have made structural changes to the electorate, campaign finance, and so on, that lock-in Sinate 'Rats. Then, there is the "Big Sort", where would-be Conservative 'R' voters have left the state permanently, leaving smaller numbers of us left to wage the battles.

[pepsionice]

I’m optimistic because you have to imagine Harry Reid standing there and some Vegas reporter asking him to defend President Obama’s record and strategies. Harry will just glare....wanting to say nothing. He’s finished I think...just no enthusiasm for another campaign.

[taildragger]

He’s finished I think...just no enthusiasm for another campaign.

The question begs, how did he win in 10' with being 5 points down in the poles to being up 5 points when all the votes were counted? Hmmm...That is quite a marginal swing.... Sharron Angle was no where near the bad "tea party" candidate she was portrayed to be.

[MplsSteve]

There’s nothing we can do about past elections - but think of how many GOP senators we’d have if Rick Berg (ND), Todd Akin (MO) and Richard Mourdock (IN) had run either better campaigns or learned how to keep their mouths shut in 2012.

[BerryDingle]

Increasingly, though, Alaskan media outlets are coming around to the view that Begich’s deficit is too great to make up in uncounted votes.

Translation: There's not enough tool sheds to find the thousands of misplaced ballots in.

[Impy]

We shoulda had 56, G-damn Virginia theft and G-damn New Hampshire.

A few more weeks may have made the difference in New Mexico too.

[FreeAtlanta]

We needed 67 to override a veto and 290 house votes.

It will be a great opportunity to put Democrats on the spot over and over again for the next election and also get the 2018 and 2020 ones on record for anti-American voting.

Get mean GOP! If the media and left are going to label you that, you might as well do it.

[pepsionice]

Sharron Angle didn’t have a four-star campaign staff. I don’t think the Republican national party apparatus supported her, and she drifted with her message, and just didn’t respond to Harry’s more mature campaign staff. Same issue in Delaware.

I also think the Vegas vote is key in any Nevada election, and you need to bring some union workers into your corner. You need to talk up at least or two subjects which might get their interest. Angle was just cruising through the election and providing centralist comments and pro-Tea Party chatter. It wasn’t enough to counter Harry’s talk. But 2016 is as different point....now you can ask Harry why he’d support the President and he’s not going to be happy about answering it. That’s why I don’t believe he’ll run in 2016. Maybe I’m wrong, but he’s probably had his fill.