Posted on 11/10/2014 4:31:25 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
For months, Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu's re-election campaign was based on one simple pitch: Elect me to a fourth term, and I'll chair the Senate Energy Committee, and that means money, money, money for Louisiana. Landrieu's case for re-election was all about clout.
That was then. Now, as Landrieu heads to a Dec. 6 runoff with Republican challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy, Democrats have already lost control of the Senate — a reality that won't be affected by the outcome of the runoff. So while Landrieu still has a chance to win, one thing is absolutely certain: She will not chair the Senate Energy Committee. The entire rationale for her campaign collapsed on primary day.
That one fact has changed the campaign entirely. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which poured millions of dollars into Landrieu's cause, has cancelled planned advertising for the runoff. Outside pro-Democratic groups have pulled out, too. The energy that would have powered Landrieu's campaign, had it been critical for control of the Senate, has drained away as she struggles to find her footing.
But Republicans are struggling, too — with the temptation to assume the race is over. Recently, one top national Republican said the contest "is starting to look like a one-foot putt." The GOP's problem is far less serious than Landrieu's, but it's still a problem.
Certainly the numbers look bad for the incumbent. Cassidy, with 41 percent, and Republican rival Rob Maness, with 13 percent, won a combined total of 54 percent of the primary vote to Landrieu's 42 percent. Maness, who is out of the runoff, has endorsed Cassidy, posting to his Facebook page a picture of himself, Cassidy and their wives smiling at a post-election "double date" at a New Orleans restaurant. Maness will attend a "unity rally" for Cassidy in Baton Rouge Monday.
As Republicans unite, Landrieu is desperately trying to convince voters she can still win. Last Thursday, campaign manager Ryan Berni sent a memo to donors and other supporters trying to make the case for a Landrieu victory. Berni's main argument: "History is on our side."
"Mary has been in runoffs before, both in 1996 and 2002," Berni wrote. "In both of her previous runoff elections, Republicans candidates combined to take a majority of the votes cast in the jungle primary, and each time she improved her votes among white and black voters. In 2002, in particular, Republicans had a big win and President [George W.] Bush was at his peak approval ratings, yet Mary found a way to pull through."
Now, Berni claimed, even though the GOP is again over 50 percent, Cassidy cannot count on the support of Maness supporters. "Third-place finisher Colonel Rob Maness's supporters will not necessarily fall in line with wishy-washy Cassidy," Berni wrote. "His 14 percent showing shows just how little faith conservatives have in Cassidy." (Berni's memo was written before the very public Cassidy-Maness rapprochement.)
Landrieu has thrown away her I'll-have-clout campaign. Now, she is all about attacking Cassidy. She has chosen a new theme, "Where was Bill?" to allege that Cassidy has been absent from Louisiana's affairs at times when she was busy looking out for her home state.
Unfortunately for Landrieu, the "Where was Bill?' campaign stumbled out of the gate when Landrieu accused Cassidy of being missing in action during the Hurricane Katrina crisis. Her campaign tweeted: "WATCH: When Louisiana needed disaster aid, Mary stood up & fought for our state. But #WhereWasBill?" Landrieu's charge looked a little ridiculous when Cassidy, a physician, answered: "Mary Landrieu wants to know where I was during Hurricane Katrina? Setting up a surge hospital for refugees." Cassidy linked to an article in which he described his work setting up an emergency facility in an abandoned K-Mart in Baton Rouge.
Undaunted, Landrieu is pressing on. At a recent appearance, flanked by union supporters, she slammed Cassidy as "wishy-washy, unreliable, undependable, not sure who he is, not sure who he was, and not sure who he wants to be."
"All she is doing now is attacking," says one Louisiana Republican involved in the fight. "She's not talking about her clout anymore, she's trying to make Cassidy the enemy."
Landrieu faces a very tough electoral landscape. In his memo, Berni predicted that in the runoff Landrieu would attract a higher turnout among black voters and improve her showing among whites. While the former is possible, the latter seems highly unlikely. According to exit polls, Landrieu won just 18 percent of the white vote in the primary — too little to win in Louisiana. "She got below 20 percent of the white vote," says the Louisiana Republican. "I don't care how much she gets the base out, she can't improve her performance with the white vote. I don't think it helped when she went on TV calling Louisiana voters racist and sexist."
In contrast to Landrieu, Cassidy doesn't have a lot of problems. So far, at least, the national Republican Party remains committed to running ads on his behalf, and this week a large contingent of GOP workers is scheduled to arrive in Louisiana for get-out-the-vote efforts. Outside groups are also still up and running for Cassidy. "We haven't had this kind of ground force in Louisiana ever," says the Republican.
Still, GOP strategists with years of work in Louisiana are wary of declaring victory a month before the election. "We've been close to knocking Mary out before," says the Republican. "In 2002, Republicans had a big night in November, and December people sort of let their guard down and she was able to win. The point is, we can't take it for granted."
The fact is, the outlook for Cassidy looks very good. But it is also true that one-foot putts are occasionally missed. Despite all the factors in their favor, that is what Louisiana Republicans are trying to keep first in their mind between now and Dec. 6.
If I’ve learned anything from watching the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, it’s that you don’t let up the intensity when playing against a seemingly-weak opponent. We’ve got a terrible record against teams with low win percentages, and last night’s defeat to the Jets only cemented that.
Contrast that with the Steelers under Chuck Noll, who had only one loss to a team with a losing record (that I’m aware of). That’s a dynasty.
The difference? Simple: you’ve got to be consistently aggressive. Be a bully. Double down on this race and ensure that she never has a chance to scrape together enough deviants and idiots to stage a comeback.
I am shocked to hear that the DNC and democratic outside groups are pulling out. That does indeed bode well for the pubbies. Why would they pull out? They don’t have any other races to save their money for. If it’s true, they must think this is already lost. I don’t want to get overconfident, but there’s a good chance we could see 54 seats. As Duck Dynasty people might say.... happy, happy, happy!
That said, Bill was helping out...Mary, where was Obama during it?
She must be praying her paramour Kermit the Frog will be coming to her rescue.
I don’t think the GOP is being overconfident here, considering Landrieu’s past ability of ekeing out wins. Priebus has an active GOTV effort in LA now.
Generally, I would agree, but not this time. The GOP has launched a major GOTV effort in LA for the runoff. They want Landrieu gone.
On the other hand, the turnout to stop Obama isn’t really in play anymore. The pro-Obama people are likely to be far more motivated.
Besides getting the seat, there is one other reason to run hard for the run-off. If Landrieu goes down 70-30%, that will make headlines all over, sine it won’t be competing with other results.
It will also likely be the end of Mary Landrieu.
Rick Santorum was a long-shot for president in 2012, not because he didn’t have a constituency, and not because he didn’t have the right background and qualifications. He was a longshot with no dunding not even because he LOST his seat in Pennsylvania. It is because he lost it by 25 #$%^&% points.
Not only that, but there are several “edge” Republicans in the Senate who often vote with the Democrats, or compromise bills into messes. 54 is a lot better than 52.
Contrast that with the Steelers under Chuck Noll, who had only one loss to a team with a losing record (that I’m aware of). That’s a dynasty.
If only Virginia had a runoff....
Mark Warner....1,071,283.....49.2%
Ed Gillespie......1,054,556.....48.4%
Robert Sarvis.........53,396.......2.5%
I want to win this seat for one reason....2016 is going to be difficult for us and every extra seat we have may save us the Senate.
Sounds like ol' Byron's becoming bit of a concern troll ...
Same b*st*rd, funded by Soros, who made McAwful the Governor of VA.
“I worry about Republican over-confidence.”
Me, too. I think that the GOP should pour resources - money, visits, etc. - into this race as if control of the Senate hinges upon it. Because, in a sense, it does - not now, but in 2016. There will be 24 Republicans and 10 Dems up for election, and we need to have as big of a buffer as possible to withstand the mathematical pressure of having to defend so many seats.
Take NOTHING for granted, EVER!
The same party she went all in for to pass Obamacare?
Sweet.
I agree...if one thing is evident from this eletion is that the (non-commie) voters wanted to send a message IMO?
Extra undiscovered boxes of “lost” ballots are waiting to go in church basements and innocent poll worker’s car trucks that will suddenly be remembered if it’s close and they do a recount.Not to mention the counties that get “held Back” and get reported as late returns.Also spread stories of “voter suppression” in the media so as to get Holder involved to “ensure the integrity of the election”.
This is only the second time Sarvis has been proven to be a turd in the punch bowl. Cost the GOP a conservative governor in VA as well a crucial US Senate seat.
Exhibit A: Why voting third party is almost always counterproductive.
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