Posted on 11/05/2014 8:26:12 AM PST by C19fan
For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012.
The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them.
Based on results as reported through early Wednesday morning — I’ll detail our method for calculating this in a moment — the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance by 4 percentage points. The average gubernatorial poll was just as bad, also overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 4 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Exactly. And it should be front page news but the local newspapers are complicit.
The sheeple don’t care. Most people are zombies when it comes to their government. They can’t even name the VP.
They had Greg Orman up 1 here in Kansas just before the election and he lost by 10 percentage points.
When I read a poll recently by CNN, it showed 70% of Americans were angry at the direction this country was going. I seriously doubted these polls figured any of that in.
CGato
I knew something was fishy when FOX News called McConnell the winner soon after the polls closed in KY. Based on the now faulty polling going I thought it would take a bit longer.
I knew something was fishy when FOX News called McConnell the winner soon after the polls closed in KY. Based on the now faulty polling going I thought it would take a bit longer.
The polls underestimated the breadth of Republican strength. Most of the GOP candidates won by double-digit margins.
It wasn’t close.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/08/republicans-could-lose-their-house-majority-because-of-the-shutdown/
Hilarious 2013 article by Sam Wang of the media darling poll group Princeton Election Consortium.
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