Posted on 11/02/2014 8:00:08 AM PST by Kaslin
If you’re in the Joni Ernst camp, then yesterday was probably a very exciting one given that the Des Moines Register’s latest poll showed the GOP senate hopeful 7 points ahead of her Democratic opponent Rep. Bruce Braley [emphasis mine]:
Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll, which buoys the GOP's hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.
…
Braley has lost vote share since an early October Iowa Poll (he dropped from 46 percent to 44 percent) while Ernst has increased her share (from 47 percent to 51 percent now).
Another sign of trouble: Braley is losing by 3 points in his home congressional district in left-leaning northeast Iowa. In the early October poll, he was up by 1 point there.
But let’s not break out the champagne yet. Fox News’ poll had the race virtually tied, with Ernst leading Braley 45/44:
Both Ernst (94 percent) and Braley supporters (95 percent) have a high degree of vote certainty, and both candidates receive strong backing from their party faithful (89 percent and 90 percent respectively).
Independents prefer Ernst over Braley by 46-30 percent.
The reverse gender gap continues, as women are more likely to back Braley by 13 points, while more men support Ernst by 15 points.
Ernst is also helped by the fact that a 55-percent majority of Iowa likely voters disapproves of the job Obama is doing. Just 40 percent approve.
It’s a bad sign for Braley that undecided voters disapprove of Obama’s performance by a wide 25-point margin.
In addition, those who have already voted back Ernst by 61-31 percent.
Another good thing favoring Republicans is that a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed that voters prefer a GOP-led Congress by a slim margin. Guy will have a more in-depth analysis on the poll avalanche that took place over the weekend on Monday.
Breaking good.
Please Lord, let it be true.
In before “we will lose anyone due to fraud” or “this poll is skewed”.
This is the race that the Democrats said they must have. Kiss it goodbye for them. The polling firm that does these polls for the Des Moines Register gets an A+ rating from Nate Silver, one of the few public polls to rate that high.
Even Meet the Depressed called Iowa for Ernst this morning. I think that this one is over and that’s very good news.
Best fifty bucks I ever spent. Would love to see someone like her here in Cali. Dreaming, I know.
I think Harry Reid said that Iowa is a bellwether — the magnitude of the victory there would predict the attitude of the nation. If this poll is correct, we are suddenly looking at another 2010 magnitude of change.
It’s those last minute TV ads featuring Mitt Romney paid for by the Chamber of Commerce!
If Iowa and North Carolina fall it will be a real old fashioned Butt Whoopin'!
And Louisiana!
This is the race that the Democrats said they must have. Kiss it goodbye for them.
Yep, bye bye. Harry Reid must be changing his Depends right now.
Those people are the biggest pain in the butt every election year.
BTW Mitt Romney was on Fox News Sunday this morning and Chris Wallace asked him if he was running in 2016. Romney made it clear again that he was not, and the decision are both his and his wife’s
I just donated $50.
Let’s worry about 2016 on Wednesday. ;)
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Great post.
“The reverse gender gap continues, as women are more likely to back Braley by 13 points, while more men support Ernst by 15 points.”
Fascinating.
Where’s the sisterhood the left cries about all the time?
Bump
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