Posted on 10/16/2014 7:23:03 AM PDT by seeker41
WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report 15 October 2014
New WHO case counts released: 8997 cases; 4493 deaths."Data for epidemiological week 41 are incomplete, with missing data for 12 October from Liberia.
This reflects the challenging nature of data gathering in countries with widespread and intense EVD transmission. These challenges remain particularly acute in Liberia, where there continues to be a mismatch between the relatively low numbers of new cases reported through official clinical surveillance systems on one hand, and reports from laboratory staff and first responders of large numbers of new cases on the other
"It is clear, however, that the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is deteriorating, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. An increase in new cases in Guinea is being driven by a spike in confirmed and suspected cases in the capital, Conakry, and the nearby district of Coyah.
"Guinea: "There is evidence of an increase in the intensity of transmission in Guinea. Compared with the previous week, a very slight drop in the number of new confirmed cases reported from the capital Conakry (figure 1) has been more than offset by a sharp rise in the number of new cases in the neighbouring district of Coyah, with 25 cases reported between 6 and 12 October ... In the east of the country, on the border with Côte d’Ivoire, the districts of Beyla and Lola both reported new cases (figure 4), emphasizing the need for active surveillance at local border crossings. To the North, the district of Boke, on the border with Guinea-Bissau has reported active transmission for the first time in more than 21 days. The central district of Mamou has reported a confirmed case for the first time.
"Liberia: "Data acquisition continues to be a challenge in Liberia. Evidence obtained from responders and laboratory staff in the country suggests that the situation in Liberia is getting worse, and that transmission remains intense in the capital, Monrovia ... Outside Monrovia, most newly reported cases have come from the districts of Bong (75 cases) and Margibi (28 cases)
"Sierra Leone: "EVD transmission is rampant in Sierra Leone, with 425 new confirmed cases reported between 6 and 12 October (figure 3). The areas hardest hit are the capital, Freetown, with 172 new cases, along with the neighbouring western districts of Bombali (94 cases) and Port Loko (67 cases).
"Health-Care Workers: As of 12th of October, 427 cases, 236 deaths."<\b>
In Spain, 72 people, including 13 high-risk contacts, are being monitored. SIn the United States of America, 125 contacts are being monitored."
That might be depressing.
BUMP for later...
The natives are restless. If they would park their Ebola spreading ways and ride it out, it could be over in a month.
But no, they continue to kiss their dead and cave to primordial lust and traditions. Seal it off and let it burn out.
Back in July, there were about 1000 cases. The number of reported cases been pretty reliably doubling every four weeks.
I’m really wondering about all of the uncounted. How many people are bribing officials to not count their dead so they can have a proper burial? We’re hearing about bodies in the streets, but how many bodies are we talking about?
The missing data is the worst sign among so much other bad news in this outbreak.
Official death rate 50%. Death rate among health care workers 55%.
Maybe a difference of reporting, but still a concerning comparison.
I saw two or three vanity threads or comments here over the past couple of weeks extrapolating from the then-known numbers forward a week at a time to the point where the entire U.S. and/or world had Ebola. Anybody have any idea of those projections are holding up? Authors, step up, I’m curious and not looking to flame.
Ebola first kills those trying to treat or contain it.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/infectious-disease-topics/vhf#overview&1-7l
Allthough person-to-person airborne transmission appears unlikely, the potential for airborne transmission of hemorrhagic fever viruses in the healthcare setting cannot be excluded (Borio 2002).
One of the problems noted in those projections is showing up now, the collapse of the health care structure in heavily infected areas. While there was some concern that official numbers were under reporting cases by half, now the concern is we are not getting any reports at all from some areas. I don’t believe we can get accurate numbers anymore so figuring the infection rate is difficult if not impossible. However the collapse of the medical infrastructure due to infection rate was predicted and has occurred. I am not one of the number guys but the above seems to follow from the information we have.
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