Posted on 10/06/2014 2:07:18 AM PDT by markomalley
ISIS may already be thinking of using Ebola as a low-tech weapon of bio-terror, says a national security expert, who notes that the “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” and terror groups like it wouldn’t even have to weaponize the virus to attempt to wreak strategic global infection.
Such groups could simply use human carriers to intentionally infect themselves in West Africa, then disseminate the deadly virus via the world’s air transportation system. Or so says Capt. Al Shimkus, Ret., a Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College.
“The individual exposed to the Ebola Virus would be the carrier,” Shimkus told Forbes. “In the context of terrorist activity, it doesn’t take much sophistication to go to that next step to use a human being as a carrier.”
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
It takes a devious mind, but for terrorists, this is a lot easier than a bomb. I’ll send you a private message about specifics [just in case terrorists are less imaginative than I assume they are], but the bottom line is that we darn well better contain the Border.
Ebola is not contagious during the incubation period. It is only contagious once symptomatic, and becomes more contagious as the disease progresses. Even at its most contagious, it is only infectious through direct contact with viral-laden bodily fluids, and possibly with the bare skin of the patient.
Mr. Duncan was potentially contagious between Sept 24, when he first showed symptoms, and Sept 28, when he was finally admitted to the hospital. That is why the CDC and local public health officials worked to identify and assess all of Mr. Duncan’s contacts during that period, and are monitoring the high risk contacts now. It has now been 8 days since he was admitted to the hospital; the average incubation period of Ebola is 7-8 days, with a range from 3 to 21 days. There are 13 days left to monitor the contacts.
Terrorists are mostly stupid, but some are not. A non-stupid terrorist would gather infected materials and spread them taking reasonable care not to get infected. The only sources of materials right now are Africa, so they would go to grave sites and scoop up material and double zip lock bag it. They would put it in their checked bags and use one of the 13,500 outstanding visas to ebola countries to get here. Obviously they would try not to be infected at that point.
Once they are here, you can use your imagination to figure out how to spread the virus. Chlorine kills it, so that removes that vector. But there are many others.
We also have US citizens who fought for ISIS and returned here. I assume that each of these ‘citizens’ knows several other Islamic Americans who admire them. Such a network could help in any number of ways.
That’s a nice scenario for a thriller movie, but in reality, I just don’t think terrorists are smart enough to pull off such a scenario. Whether it would even work is another thing. Doesn’t an explosion involve a lot of very high heat? I’m not sure any virus would survive that.
And fomites http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full
No.
“You are all thinking way inside the box ... he will also be struggling to walk.”
Talk about being inside the box. Yikes, palmer. Don’t forget that a corpse is incredibly contagious. Most anyone can carry a bag across the Mexican border. You don’t even need an entire body — just part of one.
When I say something can be done by terrorists, I know what the heck I’m talking about. I think it through. But please don’t tempt me to be more specific!
Ebola originated in the jungle, and it’s hosts start off at a nice toasty 98.6. And they only get warmer. They get along just fine when it’s chillly out.
Yes, your scenario is the same as mine.
That paper actually showed that fomite transmission does not occur. It also showed minimal virus presence in most bodily fluids. Personally, I think that it demonstrated very well that environmental contamination control measures work very well (in that clinic, they disinfected the floors daily with bleach, and other surfaces as they became visibly soiled).
I like where the doctor who is first author was going on that study, but his methods fell short of actually answering the question. A study still needs to be designed to unambiguously address the question of fomite transmission. That doctor, Bausch, is a clinician, not really a researcher.
“Ebola is not contagious during the incubation period.”
That’s when a suicidal terrorist can position himself. Fly to US for example.
“Even at its most contagious, it is only infectious through direct contact with viral-laden bodily fluids, and possibly with the bare skin of the patient.”
Back in ancient times, this is nothing new or cunning, it was standard practice in the middle east to throw corpses into wells. If you think a terrorist is too stupid to ponder that, your are dreaming.
Sorry to misunderstand you.
That is true, but we are talking about terrorists trying to achieve the opposite. Obviously fomites are a potential vector when they can collect a bloody sample and have it test positive. One likely vector is the carrying of mortally ill victims and corpses in taxis.
You have to keep in mind the biology of the virus itself.
Going to a gravesite and trying to recover viable virus might not work. One paper said that bodies of dead animals found in the African forest were not contagious after 3 or 4 days. I have a microbiologist friend who studied the kinetics of viral inactivation in dead bodies; she does not think that any virus would remain viable after about 2 hours, due to pH changes and so forth in the decomposing body.
Then there is the question of whether terrorists would be able to transport a virus even if they managed to collect a viable sample. Typically, researchers who want to transport a viable virus for research purposes take measures to ensure the virus survives shipment. I will not discuss those measures here.
A terrorist’s ability to smuggle in virus-contaminated material through customs is questionable. Their ability to smuggle in such material and maintain virus viability is even more questionable.
As I have told Smokin’ Joe in the past, I do not care to discuss possible terrorism scenarios. But I will discuss virus biology, and say that possible terrorist use is NOT the aspect of Ebola that keeps me up at night.
We are talking about a physically fragile virus. Such tactics might have worked for bacterial contaminations, depending on the durability of the bacteria in the environment. Or they just plain made the water undrinkable due to decomposition products. But they are unlikely to work with Ebola.
It is far better to be open and let the defenders have the same information as the attackers. In this case the defenders are local LE, feds, health authorities, etc. They aren't all reading here, but they should be reading somewhere and the information needs to be in the open so they can combat it. For example, we have scanners to scan for biohazards (along with other hazards). Those need to be put into routine use for African travelers. I know we can't count on the high levels of this administration to do anything right or in our interests, but people at the lower levels are still trying to do their jobs.
Dry ice typically. But saline solution works too and terrorists can easily do that. And yes, I will discuss anything here that I need to to point out your biases.
How? It is scrapped off of gloves and later cultured. It spreads by phyiscal contact.
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