[Raebie]

From the paper:

On the death rate:

"Case fatality is among the most important topics for further investigation. Our estimates of case fatality are consistent in Guinea (70.7%), Liberia (72.3%), and Sierra Leone (69.0%) when estimates are derived with data only for patients with recorded definitive clinical outcomes (1737 patients)."

On the doubling time:

"As of September 14, the doubling time of the epidemic was 15.7 days in Guinea, 23.6 days in Liberia, and 30.2 days in Sierra Leone (Table 2). We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total (Figure 4FIGURE 4 , and Table S8 in Supplementary Appendix 2). The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still."

[Raebie]

Ping

[driftdiver]

Is it time to worry yet?

[ClearCase_guy]

I have my prediction on my wall at work — 30,000 dead by Jan 1 2015. And that is extremely optimistic.

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Prospero]

Interesting note from the Summary "Conclusions," the epidemic course includes patients among whom 49.5 percent are male.

I note they do not feel the need to list the self-evident percentage of females.

It's only a rich or especially degenerate social order that perceives the luxury of bogging down under, so-called, "gender bias" that would worry about unnecessary silliness respecting how many patients are are among all the self-styled and subjective gender categories.

Under the stresses of genuine warfare, where survival is the issue, people come out from under their adopted "perceptions" and get down quickly to some reality, or they simply don't survive the crisis.

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping…

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

PING!