Posted on 09/16/2014 3:41:55 PM PDT by Chgogal
Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)
So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
What???? There's not a snowball's chance in hell that our Maoist will come within 20 points of losing.
LOL! I think I’ve read this story every election since 1980.
Except she’s against fellow Moaist, Scott Brown, who may just manage to out-Mao Shaheen and her clutched pearls.
Oh sorry! doh! New Hampshire I meant, not the Soviet Republic of Mass
Great gimmick, making an x% chance of winning prediction. You can never be wrong.
Never doubt the ability of the Republicans to cast victory into the jaws of defeat.
“They’re just trying to motive the VERY unmotivated far left to get out and vote.”
That’s right!
Way to go GOPe! You know how to pick ‘em!
In my state of Colo. the GOPe had absolutely nothing to do with choosing the Republican candidate.
After the electorate put the Obastard in the White House twice I have very little optimism the electorate would do anything to save the country, but rather would do almost anything to hasten its demise.
Yeah, I’m disgusted.
I beg to differ.
The democrats run the show from the minority position every time they are in that position.
Even when the democrats lose, they win. When republicans win, they lose.
So the answer to my question would appear to be that the GOP has done nothing to earn anyone’s vote, and my guess is that they will remain the minority, where they can’t do much...I mean won’t do anything.
I apologize for the tone of my post, however the GOP is an utter failure of the worst sort.
Just ask President Romney how your theory works out.
They mentioned North Carolina as well. There was a recent poll which had Hagan over Tillis by 10%. If you look at the internals, likely voters D42% R32% I26%... A baseline had D over r by !% not 10, I am sure we have a problem. This has been included in the RCP average. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have sloppy sampling in most of these changes.
Trying, in advance, to cover for the Dems MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD.
Republican base is defeated? War on women effective?
What on earth are you talking about. The DWS comments in Milwaukee a week ago were a complete debacle for Mary Burke who has still not repudiated what was said. Then you have the dem ag nominee getting crushed in the media over attempting to silence a molestation victim through subordinates after making a land contract deal with an accused molester and then pushing the case off until he’d paid off the deal.
Even the JS editorial board said she was completely in the wrong on how she handled the case.
Add the revelations nationally about how the milwaukee da went after walker because his wife made him do it and the fallout from the leaks to Dan vice that we’re untrue trying to combat the eye witness.
Conservative talk in wi is just fully kicking into gear in the run up to the election and here you are saying all is finished.
Yeah....ok.
The GOPe 2014 game plan is truly bizarre. You’d never know there was an obamacare if you got all your news from GOPe ads.
Rick Scott in FL only runs about about “Jobs”. Hasn’t said a word about kenyancare but I have seen his pablum jobs ad literally hundreds of time.
These RINO guys just do not want to brawl with the Dems. Not a conservative bone in their bodies and no fight in them at all. And that’s why they lose.
Plus the base is so defeated that David Clark won his dem primary in Milwaukee county with a huge crossover from republican voters after even the bellings and Sykes of the world said all was likely lost due to all of the left money poured into the race.
The base isn’t defeated it’s just engaged when it has to be otherwise all of us would go crazy with the constant political goings on here in the state.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/unemployed-by-obamacare-1408664211
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100529511#.
That took all of 1.5 minutes of research. Yup, the GOPe is pissing away this election.
you make some good points.
............................
two thoughts
..............
1) Bush did this to us. In 2006, the whole world was tired
of Bush and his endless occupation of Iraq. In 2014,
the army that Bush built threw down their weapons
(if the didn’t have time to sell them) and ran.
2) Boner does not have 218 solid votes behind him,
when he tries to pass ‘tactical’ legislation in the House.
He has to deal with people that do not like him.
There is a limit on what he can do. Boner seems to
do an Okay job at playing a weak hand.
Here in Louisiana, Cassidy is still running his squishy ads. He does very gently talk about immigration, but he is evidently unaware of Landrieu’s record on guns, Obamacare, Keystone pipeline, in short, the Democrat leftist agenda. I noticed he embedded Landrieu’s vote FOR Obama’s executive action on immigration in a lot of verbiage. That should deserve an ad by itself. Now, she running to his right on immigration, believe or not. If he thinks he is keeping his powder dry for the run off, he may not be there.
What have Republicans done to deserve the vote other than not being Democrats?
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Yep....my thoughts exactly. What have the Republican’s said/promised/accomplished or said they want to accomplish that will get people to vote for them in November?
Crickets.
Who is the Republican spokesperson that the majority of Americans can get behind and support?
Crickets.
Nothing good is going to happen in the next two years. NOTHING at all.
I’m feeling very gloomy about the prospects of a better America. I’m not usually a Debby downer...but good grief the last few years have been tough.
And it looks like more of the same is headed our way. Seriously...who can get excited about Mitch McConnell or Speaker Boehner? Who thinks those two can lead America out of the morass we’ve tumbled into?
Not bloomin’ likely.
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